arXiv:2511.12378v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Autonomous agents operating in sequential decision-making tasks under uncertainty can benefit from external action suggestions, which provide valuable guidance but inherently vary in reliability. Existing methods for incorporating such advice typically assume static and known suggester quality parameters, limiting practical deployment. We introduce a framework that dynamically learns and adapts to varying suggester reliability in partially observable environments. First, we integrate suggester quality directly into the agent's belief representation, enabling agents to infer and adjust their reliance on suggestions through Bayesian inference over suggester types. Second, we introduce an explicit ``ask'' action allowing agents to strategically request suggestions at critical moments, balancing informational gains against acquisition costs. Experimental evaluation demonstrates robust performance across varying suggester qualities, adaptation to changing reliability, and strategic management of suggestion requests. This work provides a foundation for adaptive human-agent collaboration by addressing suggestion uncertainty in uncertain environments.

arXiv:2603.12340v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Managing announced task completion times is a fundamental control problem in project management. While extensive research exists on estimating task durations and task scheduling, the problem of when and how to update completion times communicated to stakeholders remains understudied. Organizations must balance announcement accuracy against the costs of frequent timeline updates, which can erode stakeholder trust and trigger costly replanning. Despite the prevalence of this problem, current approaches rely on static predictions or ad-hoc policies that fail to account for the sequential nature of announcement management. In this paper, we formulate the task announcement problem as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) where the control policy must decide when to update announced completion times based on noisy observations of true task completion. Since most state variables (current time and previous announcements) are fully observable, we leverage the Mixed Observability MDP (MOMDP) framework to enable more efficient policy optimization. Our reward structure captures the dual costs of announcement errors and update frequency, enabling synthesis of optimal announcement control policies. Using off-the-shelf solvers, we generate policies that act as feedback controllers, adaptively managing announcements based on belief state evolution. Simulation results demonstrate significant improvements in both accuracy and announcement stability compared to baseline strategies, achieving up to 75\% reduction in unnecessary updates while maintaining or improving prediction accuracy.

arXiv:2603.06987v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deploying visuomotor robots at scale is challenging due to the potential for anomalous failures to degrade performance, cause damage, or endanger human life. Bimanual manipulators are no exception; these robots have vast state spaces comprised of high-dimensional images and proprioceptive signals. Explicitly defining failure modes within such state spaces is infeasible. In this work, we overcome these challenges by training a probabilistic, history informed, world model within the compressed latent space of a pretrained vision foundation model (NVIDIA's Cosmos Tokenizer). The model outputs uncertainty estimates alongside its predictions that serve as non-conformity scores within a conformal prediction framework. We use these scores to develop a runtime monitor, correlating periods of high uncertainty with anomalous failures. To test these methods, we use the simulated Push-T environment and the Bimanual Cable Manipulation dataset, the latter of which we introduce in this work. This new dataset features trajectories with multiple synchronized camera views, proprioceptive signals, and annotated failures from a challenging data center maintenance task. We benchmark our methods against baselines from the anomaly detection and out-of-distribution detection literature, and show that our approach considerably outperforms statistical techniques. Furthermore, we show that our approach requires approximately one twentieth of the trainable parameters as the next-best learning-based approach, yet outperforms it by 3.8% in terms of failure detection rate, paving the way toward safely deploying manipulator robots in real-world environments where reliability is non-negotiable.

arXiv:2603.03291v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reward Models (RMs) are crucial for online alignment of language models (LMs) with human preferences. However, RM-based preference-tuning is vulnerable to reward hacking, whereby LM policies learn undesirable behaviors from flawed RMs. By systematically measuring biases in five high-quality RMs, including the state-of-the-art, we find that issues persist despite prior work with respect to length, sycophancy, and overconfidence. We also discover new issues related to bias toward model-specific styles and answer-order. We categorize RM failures by complexity and propose a simple post-hoc intervention to mitigate low-complexity biases that arise from spurious correlations. Our proposed mechanistic reward shaping reduces targeted biases without degrading reward quality and while using minimal labeled data. The method is extensible to new biases, model-internal, and generalizes out-of-distribution.

arXiv:2508.11025v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal prediction is a popular uncertainty quantification method that augments a base predictor to return sets of predictions with statistically valid coverage guarantees. However, current methods are often computationally expensive and data-intensive, as they require constructing an uncertainty model before calibration. Moreover, existing approaches typically represent the prediction sets with intervals, which limits their ability to capture dependencies in multi-dimensional outputs. We address these limitations by introducing zono-conformal prediction, a novel approach inspired by interval predictor models and reachset-conformant identification that constructs prediction zonotopes with assured coverage. By placing zonotopic uncertainty sets directly into the model of the base predictor, zono-conformal predictors can be identified via a single, data-efficient linear program. While we can apply zono-conformal prediction to arbitrary nonlinear base predictors, we focus on feed-forward neural networks in this work. Aside from regression tasks, we also construct optimal zono-conformal predictors in classification settings where the output of an uncertain predictor is a set of possible classes. We provide probabilistic coverage guarantees and present methods for detecting outliers in the identification data. In extensive numerical experiments, we show that zono-conformal predictors are less conservative than interval predictor models and standard conformal prediction methods, while achieving a similar coverage over the test data.

arXiv:2602.18460v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Across healthcare, agentic artificial intelligence (AI) systems are increasingly promoted as capable of autonomous action, yet in practice they currently operate under near-total human oversight due to safety, regulatory, and liability constraints that make autonomous clinical reasoning infeasible in high-stakes environments. While market enthusiasm suggests a revolution in healthcare agents, the conceptual assumptions and accountability structures shaping these systems remain underexamined. We present a qualitative study based on interviews with 20 stakeholders, including developers, implementers, and end users. Our analysis identifies three mutually reinforcing tensions: conceptual fragmentation regarding the definition of `agentic'; an autonomy contradiction where commercial promises exceed operational reality; and an evaluation blind spot that prioritizes technical benchmarks over sociotechnical safety. We argue that agentic {AI} functions as a site of contested meaning-making where technical aspirations, commercial incentives, and clinical constraints intersect, carrying material consequences for patient safety and the distribution of blame.

arXiv:2508.11025v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal prediction is a popular uncertainty quantification method that augments a base predictor to return sets of predictions with statistically valid coverage guarantees. However, current methods are often computationally expensive and data-intensive, as they require constructing an uncertainty model before calibration. Moreover, existing approaches typically represent the prediction sets with intervals, which limits their ability to capture dependencies in multi-dimensional outputs. We address these limitations by introducing zono-conformal prediction, a novel approach inspired by interval predictor models and reachset-conformant identification that constructs prediction zonotopes with assured coverage. By placing zonotopic uncertainty sets directly into the model of the base predictor, zono-conformal predictors can be identified via a single, data-efficient linear program. While we can apply zono-conformal prediction to arbitrary nonlinear base predictors, we focus on feed-forward neural networks in this work. Aside from regression tasks, we also construct optimal zono-conformal predictors in classification settings where the output of an uncertain predictor is a set of possible classes. We provide probabilistic coverage guarantees and present methods for detecting outliers in the identification data. In extensive numerical experiments, we show that zono-conformal predictors are less conservative than interval predictor models and standard conformal prediction methods, while achieving a similar coverage over the test data.