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Received — 15 September 2026 ⏭ cs.AI, q-bio.NC updates on arXiv.org

BlueLM-GUI Technical Report: A Real-Device-Centric Flywheel for Self-Improving Mobile GUI Agents

arXiv:2609.12394v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Mobile GUI agents are shifting from multi-module frameworks to native models trained end-to-end, yet industrial deployment faces three persistent gaps. Sandbox training produces a distribution mismatch with production environments; expensive real-device failures remain underutilized; and fixed benchmarks saturate, losing the power to guide iteration. We present BlueLM-GUI, a 35B-A3B mobile GUI agent built as a real-device-centric flywheel that closes these gaps through three principles. Every Sample Matters: a dual-track pipeline with Heterogeneous Triple-System Consensus evaluation and an Error Correction \& Derivation Module salvages every trajectory into usable supervision. Every Rollout Is Real: a three-stage recipe---continual pre-training, supervised fine-tuning, and agentic reinforcement learning on hundreds of real phones---grounds every rollout in real production environments, so the capability the model learns transfers directly to deployment. Every Query Evolves: a quota-driven benchmark methodology with three orthogonal axes enables precise attribution and allows the benchmark to be systematically upgraded as the model improves. BlueLM-GUI achieves 87.4 on MobileGUI-VBench, surpassing the best closed-source model by 5.1 points, and 84.9 on AndroidWorld, the best result among open-source models and competitive with closed-source models. These results demonstrate that grounding model training and iterative improvement in both real devices and the three Every principles yields strong, robust, and transferable mobile GUI capability.

OneLA: Scaling Linear-Attention Decoding to Large Beams in Generative Recommendation

arXiv:2609.12399v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Generative recommendation (GR) relies on large-beam decoding to generate hundreds of candidate items, creating a new scaling challenge for recurrent linear attention. Existing linear attention serving systems either materialize a full recurrent state for every beam or repeatedly replay shared history, incurring substantial memory and traffic overhead. To address this, we present OneLA, a linear-attention decoding framework that exploits the shared prompt and short divergent suffixes of GR workloads. Specifically, OneLA represents all beam states using a single shared prompt-derived state and compact, append-only records of their divergent transitions. Using this representation, OneLA computes only the state information required at each decoding step, without reconstructing a full recurrent state for every beam. Furthermore, OneLA uses a lightweight ancestry index to track the transition records that make up each beam's history, allowing beams to be updated without moving or copying existing records. A fused GPU kernel further reuses the shared state across beams. Our analysis shows that OneLA achieves 1.54-2.46x end-to-end decode speedups while substantially reducing recurrent-state memory use and data movement.

FLOAT Drone: A Fully-actuated Coaxial Aerial Robot for Close-Proximity Operations

arXiv:2503.00785v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: How to endow aerial robots with the ability to operate in close proximity remains an open problem. The core challenges lie in the propulsion system's dual-task requirement: generating manipulation forces while simultaneously counteracting gravity. These competing demands create dynamic coupling effects during physical interactions. Furthermore, rotor-induced airflow disturbances critically undermine operational reliability. Although fully-actuated unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) alleviate dynamic coupling effects via six-degree-of-freedom (6-DoF) force-torque decoupling, existing implementations fail to address the aerodynamic interference between drones and environments. They also suffer from oversized designs, which compromise maneuverability and limit their applications in various operational scenarios. To address these limitations, we present FLOAT Drone (FuLly-actuated cOaxial Aerial roboT), a novel fully-actuated UAV featuring two key structural innovations. By integrating control surfaces into fully-actuated systems for the first time, we significantly suppress lateral airflow disturbances during operations. Furthermore, a coaxial dual-rotor configuration enables a compact size while maintaining high hovering efficiency. Through dynamic modeling, we have developed hierarchical position and attitude controllers that support both fully-actuated and underactuated modes. Experimental validation through comprehensive real-world experiments confirms the system's functional capabilities in close-proximity operations.
Received — 27 May 2026 ⏭ cs.AI, q-bio.NC updates on arXiv.org

Low-Cost Labels, Reliable Choices: Rollout-Calibrated Hyper-Heuristics for Job Shop Scheduling

arXiv:2605.23957v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Learning-assisted hyper-heuristics can select among dispatching rules while preserving the feasibility and interpretability of constructive Job Shop Scheduling Problem (JSSP) heuristics. Their main computational cost lies in label generation rather than model fitting, since each supervised label usually requires rolling out candidate rules from a partial schedule. We study this label-cost problem together with a reliability problem: a learned selector should not switch away from a strong default rule unless the predicted gain is credible. The proposed selector uses regret-normalized rollout labels, a contextual KNN uncertainty estimate, and a gate that acts only when the predicted improvement exceeds an uncertainty-adjusted margin. We also vary rollout depth and breadth to measure the cost-quality trade-off. On synthetic JSSP instances, the gated selector achieves the lowest mean RPD among learned selectors, remains close to the best fixed dispatching rule, and reduces Random-HH mean RPD by more than an order of magnitude.

A Signal-Language Foundation Model for Broad-Spectrum Cardiovascular Assessment from Routine Electrocardiography

arXiv:2605.25446v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Electrocardiography (ECG) is central to cardiovascular care, but conventional AI models are often restricted to common arrhythmias and may generalize poorly across populations or clinically subtle diseases. We developed ECG Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (ECGCLIP), a signal-language contrastive learning framework that aligns ECG waveforms with expert diagnostic reports. ECGCLIP was pre-trained on 2,837,962 ECG studies from 1,324,856 patients and evaluated on a held-out internal test set plus nine independent external cohorts comprising about 1.5 million ECGs. Evaluation covered 89 downstream tasks, including 45 ECG diagnoses, 39 echocardiographic targets, and 5 rare cardiac diseases, using PRAUC as the primary metric. ECGCLIP consistently improved performance over random initialization and Merl-R18 baselines. On the internal test set, ECGCLIP-R34 achieved strong performance for atrial fibrillation (PRAUC 0.900) and ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (PRAUC 0.383), with robust generalization across all external cohorts. It also improved low-prevalence and diagnostically elusive diseases, including Ebstein anomaly, constrictive pericarditis, dextrocardia, and cardiac amyloidosis, with internal PRAUC values of 0.253, 0.175, 0.121, and 0.201, respectively. ECGCLIP was data efficient, matching or exceeding full-dataset baseline performance with only 10% of training data. Feature visualization and saliency analysis suggested clinically meaningful representations aligned with established electrocardiographic criteria. These findings indicate that large-scale ECG-report contrastive pre-training can expand routine ECG interpretation beyond common arrhythmias toward broad cardiovascular assessment and opportunistic screening of echocardiographic and rare conditions.

CausaLab: A Scalable Environment for Interactive Causal Discovery Toward AI Scientists

arXiv:2605.26029v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We introduce CausaLab, a scalable environment for evaluating interactive causal discovery by LLM agents. Unlike prior evaluations, CausaLab evaluates both whether an agent can solve a problem using causal evidence and whether its answer is supported by a correct hypothesis about the underlying causal mechanism. Each episode places an agent in a synthetic laboratory: it receives prior measurement records, intervenes on a manipulator crystal, and predicts the resonance frequency of a held-out reactor crystal governed by the same mechanism. The hidden data-generating process is a randomly sampled structural causal model (SCM), so success requires recovering both a causal graph and structural equations rather than recalling prior knowledge. CausaLab also includes a domain-specific language that records the agent's evolving SCM hypothesis, making trajectories inspectable and comparable with ground truth. Experiments show a persistent gap between prediction and mechanism recovery: in the purely observational 6-node setting, GPT-5.2-high reaches 92% task accuracy but only 0.471 all-edge $F_1$. This observation further motivates our exploration of different interaction strategies: Mixed observation--intervention strategies improve structural fidelity: in the mixed 6-node setting, GPT-5.2-high achieves 80% on both task accuracy and all-edge $F_1$. Yet even strong agents struggle to design informative interventions, as pure intervention strategies perform poorly on both task accuracy and all-edge $F_1$. We identify premature stopping as a major weakness of agents, and show that asking the model to verify the consistency between its hypothesis and past data can help mitigate this issue. CausaLab therefore separates predictive success from causal understanding and exposes current LLM agents' limits as experimental causal reasoners.

Towards a Universal Causal Reasoner

arXiv:2605.24873v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Despite the importance of causal reasoning, training LLMs to reason causally remains underexplored. Existing data efforts mostly focus on benchmarking LLMs on specific aspects of causality, making them less suitable for training generalizable causal reasoners. To address this, we propose UniCo, a data generation framework that both (1) addresses 18 causal query types across Pearl's Causal Ladder and (2) translates natively symbolic examples into code and natural language forms to simulate real-world use cases where causal terms are not explicitly specified. To ensure data quality, UniCo grounds answers with exact causal inference and filters cases with reasoning shortcuts. Upon supervised finetuning with 66.6K UniCo-generated instances, Qwen3-4B, Qwen3-8B and Olmo-3-7B-Instruct achieve an average of 22.9% improvements across all 18 in-distribution query types, and 8.1% over state-of-the-art causal data generation frameworks on 7 established causal benchmarks outside the training distribution. More importantly, in real-world medical understanding, legal decision, and tabular reasoning, UniCo-trained models consistently display more faithful reasoning traces, outperforming the base models by an average of 20.2% in faithfulness metrics. These suggest that causality-centered training not only strengthens causal reasoning, but also equips LLMs with a causal mindset in general reasoning tasks.

TGFormer: Towards Temporal Graph Transformer with Auto-Correlation Mechanism

arXiv:2605.24971v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The growing interest in Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNNs) stems from their ability to model complex dynamics and deliver superior performance. However, TGNNs encounter fundamental challenges in capturing long-term dependencies and identifying periodic patterns. To address these limitations, we propose TGFormer, a novel Transformer architecture specifically designed for temporal graphs. Our model redefines temporal graph learning by establishing a trajectory framework that aligns with time series analysis principles. This approach allows TGFormer to derive node representations through systematic analysis of historical interactions, enabling granular examination of node relationships across sequential timestamps. Building upon stochastic process theory, we develop an auto-correlation mechanism that systematically uncovers periodic dependencies in node interactions. This innovation empowers TGFormer to perform dependency discovery and representation aggregation at sub-interaction levels, demonstrating superior efficiency and accuracy compared to conventional attention mechanisms. Experimental validation across six public benchmarks confirms the effectiveness of our approach, with TGFormer at most achieving 9.35\% precision improvement compared to state-of-the-art approaches.

AgentArk: Distilling Multi-Agent Intelligence into a Single LLM Agent

arXiv:2602.03955v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While large language model (LLM) multi-agent systems achieve superior reasoning performance through iterative debate, practical deployment is limited by their high computational cost and error propagation. This paper proposes AgentArk, a novel framework to distill multi-agent dynamics into the weights of a single model, effectively transforming explicit test-time interactions into implicit model capabilities. This equips a single agent with the intelligence of multi-agent systems while remaining computationally efficient. Specifically, we investigate three hierarchical distillation strategies across various models, tasks, scaling, and scenarios: reasoning-enhanced fine-tuning; trajectory-based augmentation; and process-aware distillation. By shifting the burden of computation from inference to training, the distilled models preserve the efficiency of one agent while exhibiting strong reasoning and self-correction performance of multiple agents. They further demonstrate enhanced robustness and generalization across diverse reasoning tasks. We hope this work can shed light on future research on efficient and robust multi-agent development. Our code is at https://github.com/AIFrontierLab/AgentArk.

Safety in Embodied AI: A Survey of Risks, Attacks, and Defenses

arXiv:2605.02900v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Embodied Artificial Intelligence (Embodied AI) integrates perception, cognition, planning, and interaction into agents that operate in open-world, safety-critical environments. As these systems gain autonomy and enter domains such as transportation, healthcare, and industrial or assistive robotics, ensuring their safety becomes both technically challenging and socially indispensable. Unlike digital AI systems, embodied agents must act under uncertain sensing, incomplete knowledge, and dynamic human-robot interactions, where failures can directly lead to physical harm. This survey provides a comprehensive and structured review of safety research in embodied AI, examining attacks and defenses across the full embodied pipeline, from perception and cognition to planning, action and interaction, and agentic system. We introduce a multi-level taxonomy that unifies fragmented lines of work and connects embodied-specific safety findings with broader advances in vision, language, and multimodal foundation models. Our review synthesizes insights from over 500 papers spanning adversarial, backdoor, jailbreak, and hardware-level attacks; attack detection, safe training and robust inference; and risk-aware human-agent interaction. This analysis reveals several overlooked challenges, including the fragility of multimodal perception fusion, the instability of planning under jailbreak attacks, and the trustworthiness of human-agent interaction in open-ended scenarios. By organizing the field into a coherent framework and identifying critical research gaps, this survey provides a roadmap for building embodied agents that are not only capable and autonomous but also safe, robust, and reliable in real-world deployment.
Received — 8 April 2026 ⏭ cs.AI, q-bio.NC updates on arXiv.org

A Model Can Help Itself: Reward-Free Self-Training for LLM Reasoning

arXiv:2510.18814v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Can language models improve their reasoning performance without external rewards, using only their own sampled responses for training? We show that they can. We propose Self-evolving Post-Training (SePT), a simple post-training method that alternates between self-generation and training on self-generated responses. It repeatedly samples questions, uses the model itself to generate low-temperature responses, and then finetunes the model on the self-generated data. In this self-training loop, we use an online data refresh mechanism, where each new batch is generated by the most recently updated model. Across six math reasoning benchmarks, SePT improves a strong no-training baseline, defined as the untuned base model evaluated at its best swept decoding temperature, on several tested models. In some settings, SePT can even approach the performance of Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR). Additional ablations demonstrate the importance of online data refresh and temperature decoupling. Overall, our results identify a practical regime in which reasoning can be improved using self-generated supervision alone. Our code is available at https://github.com/ElementQi/SePT.
Received — 4 April 2026 ⏭ cs.AI, q-bio.NC updates on arXiv.org

EvoSkills: Self-Evolving Agent Skills via Co-Evolutionary Verification

arXiv:2604.01687v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Anthropic proposes the concept of skills for LLM agents to tackle multi-step professional tasks that simple tool invocations cannot address. A tool is a single, self-contained function, whereas a skill is a structured bundle of interdependent multi-file artifacts. Currently, skill generation is not only label-intensive due to manual authoring, but also may suffer from human--machine cognitive misalignment, which can lead to degraded agent performance, as evidenced by evaluations on SkillsBench. Therefore, we aim to enable agents to autonomously generate skills. However, existing self-evolving methods designed for tools cannot be directly applied to skills due to their increased complexity. To address these issues, we propose EvoSkills, a self-evolving skills framework that enables agents to autonomously construct complex, multi-file skill packages. Specifically, EvoSkills couples a Skill Generator that iteratively refines skills with a Surrogate Verifier that co-evolves to provide informative and actionable feedback without access to ground-truth test content. On SkillsBench, EvoSkills achieves the highest pass rate among five baselines on both Claude Code and Codex, and also exhibits strong generalization capabilities to six additional LLMs.

Moir\'e Video Authentication: A Physical Signature Against AI Video Generation

arXiv:2604.01654v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent advances in video generation have made AI-synthesized content increasingly difficult to distinguish from real footage. We propose a physics-based authentication signature that real cameras produce naturally, but that generative models cannot faithfully reproduce. Our approach exploits the Moir\'e effect: the interference fringes formed when a camera views a compact two-layer grating structure. We derive the Moir\'e motion invariant, showing that fringe phase and grating image displacement are linearly coupled by optical geometry, independent of viewing distance and grating structure. A verifier extracts both signals from video and tests their correlation. We validate the invariant on both real-captured and AI-generated videos from multiple state-of-the-art generators, and find that real and AI-generated videos produce significantly different correlation signatures, suggesting a robust means of differentiating them. Our work demonstrates that deterministic optical phenomena can serve as physically grounded, verifiable signatures against AI-generated video.
Received — 2 April 2026 ⏭ cs.AI, q-bio.NC updates on arXiv.org

Mean Masked Autoencoder with Flow-Mixing for Encrypted Traffic Classification

arXiv:2603.29537v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Network traffic classification using self-supervised pre-training models based on Masked Autoencoders (MAE) has demonstrated a huge potential. However, existing methods are confined to isolated byte-level reconstruction of individual flows, lacking adequate perception of the multi-granularity contextual relationship in traffic. To address this limitation, we propose Mean MAE (MMAE), a teacher-student MAE paradigm with flow mixing strategy for building encrypted traffic pre-training model. MMAE employs a self-distillation mechanism for teacher-student interaction, where the teacher provides unmasked flow-level semantic supervision to advance the student from local byte reconstruction to multi-granularity comprehension. To break the information bottleneck in individual flows, we introduce a dynamic Flow Mixing (FlowMix) strategy to replace traditional random masking mechanism. By constructing challenging cross-flow mixed samples with interferences, it compels the model to learn discriminative representations from distorted tokens. Furthermore, we design a Packet-importance aware Mask Predictor (PMP) equipped with an attention bias mechanism that leverages packet-level side-channel statistics to dynamically mask tokens with high semantic density. Numerous experiments on a number of datasets covering encrypted applications, malware, and attack traffic demonstrate that MMAE achieves state-of-the-art performance. The code is available at https://github.com/lx6c78/MMAE
Received — 26 March 2026 ⏭ cs.AI, q-bio.NC updates on arXiv.org

MCLR: Improving Conditional Modeling in Visual Generative Models via Inter-Class Likelihood-Ratio Maximization and Establishing the Equivalence between Classifier-Free Guidance and Alignment Objectives

arXiv:2603.22364v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling, but their success often relies heavily on classifier-free guidance (CFG), an inference-time heuristic that modifies the sampling trajectory. From a theoretical perspective, diffusion models trained with standard denoising score matching (DSM) are expected to recover the target data distribution, raising the question of why inference-time guidance is necessary in practice. In this work, we ask whether the DSM training objective can be modified in a principled manner such that standard reverse-time sampling, without inference-time guidance, yields effects comparable to CFG. We identify insufficient inter-class separation as a key limitation of standard diffusion models. To address this, we propose MCLR, a principled alignment objective that explicitly maximizes inter-class likelihood-ratios during training. Models fine-tuned with MCLR exhibit CFG-like improvements under standard sampling, achieving comparable qualitative and quantitative gains without requiring inference-time guidance. Beyond empirical benefits, we provide a theoretical result showing that the CFG-guided score is exactly the optimal solution to a weighted MCLR objective. This establishes a formal equivalence between classifier-free guidance and alignment-based objectives, offering a mechanistic interpretation of CFG.

Injecting Falsehoods: Adversarial Man-in-the-Middle Attacks Undermining Factual Recall in LLMs

arXiv:2511.05919v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: LLMs are now an integral part of information retrieval. As such, their role as question answering chatbots raises significant concerns due to their shown vulnerability to adversarial man-in-the-middle (MitM) attacks. Here, we propose the first principled attack evaluation on LLM factual memory under prompt injection via Xmera, our novel, theory-grounded MitM framework. By perturbing the input given to "victim" LLMs in three closed-book and fact-based QA settings, we undermine the correctness of the responses and assess the uncertainty of their generation process. Surprisingly, trivial instruction-based attacks report the highest success rate (up to ~85.3%) while simultaneously having a high uncertainty for incorrectly answered questions. To provide a simple defense mechanism against Xmera, we train Random Forest classifiers on the response uncertainty levels to distinguish between attacked and unattacked queries (average AUC of up to ~94.8%). We believe that signaling users to be cautious about the answers they receive from black-box and potentially corrupt LLMs is a first checkpoint toward user cyberspace safety.

Hierarchical Long Video Understanding with Audiovisual Entity Cohesion and Agentic Search

arXiv:2601.13719v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Long video understanding presents significant challenges for vision-language models due to extremely long context windows. Existing solutions relying on naive chunking strategies with retrieval-augmented generation, typically suffer from information fragmentation and a loss of global coherence. We present HAVEN, a unified framework for long-video understanding that enables coherent and comprehensive reasoning by integrating audiovisual entity cohesion and hierarchical video indexing with agentic search. First, we preserve semantic consistency by integrating entity-level representations across visual and auditory streams, while organizing content into a structured hierarchy spanning global summary, scene, segment, and entity levels. Then we employ an agentic search mechanism to enable dynamic retrieval and reasoning across these layers, facilitating coherent narrative reconstruction and fine-grained entity tracking. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves good temporal coherence, entity consistency, and retrieval efficiency, establishing a new state-of-the-art with an overall accuracy of 84.1% on LVBench. Notably, it achieves outstanding performance in the challenging reasoning category, reaching 80.1%. These results highlight the effectiveness of structured, multimodal reasoning for comprehensive and context-consistent understanding of long-form videos.
Received — 17 March 2026 ⏭ cs.AI, q-bio.NC updates on arXiv.org

Spend Less, Reason Better: Budget-Aware Value Tree Search for LLM Agents

arXiv:2603.12634v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Test-time scaling has become a dominant paradigm for improving LLM agent reliability, yet current approaches treat compute as an abundant resource, allowing agents to exhaust token and tool budgets on redundant steps or dead-end trajectories. Existing budget-aware methods either require expensive fine-tuning or rely on coarse, trajectory-level heuristics that cannot intervene mid-execution. We propose the Budget-Aware Value Tree (BAVT), a training-free inference-time framework that models multi-hop reasoning as a dynamic search tree guided by step-level value estimation within a single LLM backbone. Another key innovation is a budget-conditioned node selection mechanism that uses the remaining resource ratio as a natural scaling exponent over node values, providing a principled, parameter-free transition from broad exploration to greedy exploitation as the budget depletes. To combat the well-known overconfidence of LLM self-evaluation, BAVT employs a residual value predictor that scores relative progress rather than absolute state quality, enabling reliable pruning of uninformative or redundant tool calls. We further provide a theoretical convergence guarantee, proving that BAVT reaches a terminal answer with probability at least $1-\epsilon$ under an explicit finite budget bound. Extensive evaluations on four multi-hop QA benchmarks across two model families demonstrate that BAVT consistently outperforms parallel sampling baselines. Most notably, BAVT under strict low-budget constraints surpasses baseline performance at $4\times$ the resource allocation, establishing that intelligent budget management fundamentally outperforms brute-force compute scaling.
Received — 11 March 2026 ⏭ cs.AI, q-bio.NC updates on arXiv.org

Language in the Flow of Time: Time-Series-Paired Texts Weaved into a Unified Temporal Narrative

arXiv:2502.08942v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: While many advances in time series models focus exclusively on numerical data, research on multimodal time series, particularly those involving contextual textual information, remains in its infancy. With recent progress in large language models and time series learning, we revisit the integration of paired texts with time series through the Platonic Representation Hypothesis, which posits that representations of different modalities converge to shared spaces. In this context, we identify that time-series-paired texts may naturally exhibit periodic properties that closely mirror those of the original time series. Building on this insight, we propose a novel framework, Texts as Time Series (TaTS), which considers the time-series-paired texts to be auxiliary variables of the time series. TaTS can be plugged into any existing numerical-only time series models and effectively enable them to handle time series data with paired texts. Through extensive experiments on both multimodal time series forecasting and imputation tasks across benchmark datasets with various existing time series models, we demonstrate that TaTS can enhance multimodal predictive performance without modifying model architectures. Our Code is available at https://github.com/iDEA-iSAIL-Lab-UIUC/TaTS.

Unveiling Downstream Performance Scaling of LLMs: A Clustering-Based Perspective

arXiv:2502.17262v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The escalating scale and cost of Large Language Models (LLMs) training necessitate accurate pre-training prediction of downstream task performance for comprehensive understanding of scaling properties. This is challenged by: 1) the emergence phenomenon, where unpredictable capabilities appearing suddenly at critical model scales; and 2) uneven task difficulty and inconsistent performance scaling patterns, leading to high metric variability. Current prediction methods lack accuracy and reliability. We propose a Clustering-On-Difficulty (COD) framework for downstream performance prediction. The COD framework clusters tasks by their difficulty scaling features, thereby constructing a more stable and predictable task subset that exhibits well-behaved scaling characteristics with the increase of compute budget. We adopt a performance scaling law to predict cluster-wise performance with theoretical support. Predictable subset performance acts as an intermediate predictor for the full evaluation set. We further derive a mapping function to accurately extrapolate the performance of the subset to the full set. Applied to an LLM with 70B parameters, COD achieved a 1.55\% average prediction error across eight key LLM benchmarks, thus providing actionable insights for scaling properties and training monitoring during LLM pre-training.
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