arXiv:2603.22299v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are often confidently wrong, making reliable uncertainty estimation (UE) essential. Output-based heuristics are cheap but brittle, while probing internal representations is effective yet high-dimensional and hard to transfer. We propose a compact, per-instance UE method that scores cross-layer agreement patterns in internal representations using a single forward pass. Across three models, our method matches probing in-distribution, with mean diagonal differences of at most $-1.8$ AUPRC percentage points and $+4.9$ Brier score points. Under cross-dataset transfer, it consistently outperforms probing, achieving off-diagonal gains up to $+2.86$ AUPRC and $+21.02$ Brier points. Under 4-bit weight-only quantization, it remains robust, improving over probing by $+1.94$ AUPRC points and $+5.33$ Brier points on average. Beyond performance, examining specific layer--layer interactions reveals differences in how disparate models encode uncertainty. Altogether, our UE method offers a lightweight, compact means to capture transferable uncertainty in LLMs.

arXiv:2603.03308v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: How does the conversational past of large language models (LLMs) influence their future performance? Recent work suggests that LLMs are affected by their conversational history in unexpected ways. For instance, hallucinations in prior interactions may influence subsequent model responses. In this work, we introduce History-Echoes, a framework that investigates how conversational history biases subsequent generations. The framework explores this bias from two perspectives: probabilistically, we model conversations as Markov chains to quantify state consistency; geometrically, we measure the consistency of consecutive hidden representations. Across three model families and six datasets spanning diverse phenomena, our analysis reveals a strong correlation between the two perspectives. By bridging these perspectives, we demonstrate that behavioral persistence manifests as a geometric trap, where gaps in the latent space confine the model's trajectory. Code available at https://github.com/technion-cs-nlp/OldHabitsDieHard.