arXiv:2609.12136v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Prequential adaptation of frozen tabular foundation models under temporal drift, with each label revealed only after prediction, helps some deployments and harms others, yet current practice does not predict which. We study the sources and limits of these gains. A diagnostic anatomy attributes gains to four recurring mechanisms under a streaming protocol that removes three optimistic biases and quantifies a fourth. Within an agnostic total-variation drift class, the target conditional is only partially identified: its identified-set diameter, the \emph{wall}, is irreducible from unlabeled data uniformly in sample size. A second, orthogonal $L^2$ projection wall quantifies what the frozen representation cannot express. Two canonical mechanism priors collapse the first wall. Under stated nuisance-rate conditions, the wall can be estimated from labeled historical windows at a $\sqrt N$ rate above the margin threshold $\gamma^\star=d_0/(2\alpha_s)$. At $\gamma=0$, the conditional lower-bound program depends on an open affinity estimate; the positive-margin lower branch also remains open. Semi-synthetic data illustrate the finite-sample mechanism with calibrated exponents. Stream-level proxies on eight industrial streams fall on the difficult side under a stated roughness bound, while the equality case $\gamma=\gamma^\star$ remains unresolved.

arXiv:2609.12579v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) scores student-generated prefixes with a solution-conditioned self-teacher, yet transfers supervision only through next-token probabilities. We ask whether the aligned final-layer discrepancy offers a useful second channel, and how to test that channel without confusing its geometry with auxiliary strength. SCOPE-OPSD projects the privileged teacher-student residual onto a frozen rank-64 factor estimated from residual covariance and language-model-head Fisher sensitivity. It reuses the forwards already required by OPSD and adds neither rollouts nor inference-time modules. A matched Random control preserves the structured factor's rank and nonzero spectrum and uses per-arm gradient-RMS calibration, isolating the effect of the data-dependent orientation. Across the complete 25/50/75/100-step trajectories for Qwen3-1.7B, 4B, and 8B, Structured is never below Pure OPSD, with strict gains in 11 of the 12 model-checkpoint combinations and an exact tie at 4B step 25. Structured also exceeds matched Random in 10 of the 12 combinations. At step 75 on Qwen3-1.7B, Structured exceeds matched Random by 1.39 Macro Avg@12 points in each of two independent training reruns. A cross-fitted diagnostic also shows 4.40 times greater held-out privileged-gap capture than the matched random orientation. The results support a compact, Fisher-conditioned privileged subspace for short-budget OPSD.