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Received — 15 September 2026 ⏭ cs.AI, q-bio.NC updates on arXiv.org

Hierarchical Belief Modeling for Zero-Shot Opponent Adaptation in Partially Observable Multi-Agent Navigation

arXiv:2609.12422v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Lux AI Season 3 requires agents to act under partial observability, randomized episode level dynamics, and a best of five match structure that rewards both tactical execution and fast adaptation. We present HORIZON, a hierarchical agent that combines symmetry aware spatial perception, dual memory belief tracking, relic centric graph attention, information gain driven exploration, and an opponent conditioned policy mixture. HORIZON separates short horizon control from cross match meta reasoning, while auxiliary belief and world model objectives stabilize learning. Trained with PPO in a large scale JAX simulator, the resulting agent explicitly infers hidden game parameters and opponent style. Experiments show consistent gains in match win rate, episode win rate, adaptation gain, and league rating over strong recurrent and feed forward baselines.

The Anatomy and Boundary of Adaptation under Temporal Tabular Shift

arXiv:2609.12136v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Prequential adaptation of frozen tabular foundation models under temporal drift, with each label revealed only after prediction, helps some deployments and harms others, yet current practice does not predict which. We study the sources and limits of these gains. A diagnostic anatomy attributes gains to four recurring mechanisms under a streaming protocol that removes three optimistic biases and quantifies a fourth. Within an agnostic total-variation drift class, the target conditional is only partially identified: its identified-set diameter, the \emph{wall}, is irreducible from unlabeled data uniformly in sample size. A second, orthogonal $L^2$ projection wall quantifies what the frozen representation cannot express. Two canonical mechanism priors collapse the first wall. Under stated nuisance-rate conditions, the wall can be estimated from labeled historical windows at a $\sqrt N$ rate above the margin threshold $\gamma^\star=d_0/(2\alpha_s)$. At $\gamma=0$, the conditional lower-bound program depends on an open affinity estimate; the positive-margin lower branch also remains open. Semi-synthetic data illustrate the finite-sample mechanism with calibrated exponents. Stream-level proxies on eight industrial streams fall on the difficult side under a stated roughness bound, while the equality case $\gamma=\gamma^\star$ remains unresolved.

SCOPE-OPSD: Fisher-Conditioned Privileged Subspaces for On-Policy Self-Distillation

arXiv:2609.12579v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) scores student-generated prefixes with a solution-conditioned self-teacher, yet transfers supervision only through next-token probabilities. We ask whether the aligned final-layer discrepancy offers a useful second channel, and how to test that channel without confusing its geometry with auxiliary strength. SCOPE-OPSD projects the privileged teacher-student residual onto a frozen rank-64 factor estimated from residual covariance and language-model-head Fisher sensitivity. It reuses the forwards already required by OPSD and adds neither rollouts nor inference-time modules. A matched Random control preserves the structured factor's rank and nonzero spectrum and uses per-arm gradient-RMS calibration, isolating the effect of the data-dependent orientation. Across the complete 25/50/75/100-step trajectories for Qwen3-1.7B, 4B, and 8B, Structured is never below Pure OPSD, with strict gains in 11 of the 12 model-checkpoint combinations and an exact tie at 4B step 25. Structured also exceeds matched Random in 10 of the 12 combinations. At step 75 on Qwen3-1.7B, Structured exceeds matched Random by 1.39 Macro Avg@12 points in each of two independent training reruns. A cross-fitted diagnostic also shows 4.40 times greater held-out privileged-gap capture than the matched random orientation. The results support a compact, Fisher-conditioned privileged subspace for short-budget OPSD.

MedCollab: IBIS-Guided Multi-Agent Collaboration with Hierarchical Disease Relation Chains for Clinical Diagnosis

arXiv:2603.01131v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Clinical diagnosis is a gradual process of evidence integration, in which physicians move from symptoms and medical history to examinations, competing hypotheses, disease relations, and treatment decisions. Large language models have advanced medical text understanding and generation. Yet their clinical use remains limited by weak evidence grounding, opaque reasoning, and inconsistent links among differential diagnosis, final diagnosis, diagnostic basis, and treatment planning. We introduce MedCollab, a multi-agent framework for full-cycle clinical diagnosis and report generation. MedCollab coordinates specialist and examination agents according to patient records. It structures agent deliberation with an Issue-Based Information System (IBIS) protocol, so that each diagnostic position is supported by patient-specific evidence and medical knowledge. It also builds Hierarchical Disease Relation Chains (HDRC) to connect accepted hypotheses through progression, complication, and comorbidity relations. During multi-round deliberation, a verifier-guided consensus module evaluates evidence support, medical plausibility, and logical conflicts. It then adjusts agent contributions and filters unsupported reasoning. Experiments on ClinicalBench and MIMIC-IV show that MedCollab outperforms leading LLMs and medical multi-agent baselines in diagnostic accuracy, evidence consistency, and clinical reasoning quality. These results indicate that structured and auditable collaboration can produce more faithful and clinically coherent diagnostic reports.

PhysCodeBench: Benchmarking Physics-Aware Symbolic Simulation of 3D Scenes via Self-Corrective Multi-Agent Refinement

arXiv:2604.23580v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Translating natural-language descriptions of physical phenomena into executable simulation code requires both programming expertise and physical reasoning. Current large language models (LLMs) lack this combination: they frequently produce code that runs but simulates the wrong physics. We introduce PhysCodeBench, the first benchmark for this task, with 1,200 expert-validated examples spanning four physical domains. Its evaluation suite, PhysCodeEval, goes beyond executability and visual fidelity to measure physical correctness directly from the engine state via conservation-law residuals and expert-written assertions, and supports cross-engine evaluation to disentangle physics reasoning from API fluency. As a reference method, we propose the Self-Corrective Multi-Agent Refinement Framework (SMRF), which decouples physics-aware error correction from code generation through specialized agents. This design is motivated by our finding that targeted correction, rather than generic iterative refinement, is the key driver of physical accuracy. SMRF nearly triples the physical-assertion pass rate of the best proprietary baseline (70.6\% vs.\ 23.8\%) and retains its advantage under cross-engine transfer.

LC-QAT: Data-Efficient 2-Bit QAT for LLMs via Linear-Constrained Vector Quantization

arXiv:2606.10531v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Quantization-aware training (QAT) is essential for extremely low-bit large language models (LLMs). Current QAT methods are mainly based on scalar quantization (SQ), which enables efficient optimization but suffers from severe performance degradation at 2-bit precision. On the other hand, vector quantization (VQ) provides substantially higher representational capacity, but its discrete codebook lookup prevents end-to-end training. We propose LC-QAT, a 2-bit weight-only VQ-QAT framework that represents quantized weights via a learned affine mapping over discrete vectors, which yields a high-quality PTQ initialization and enables fully differentiable end-to-end optimization without explicit codebook lookup in the training forward pass. This strong post-training initialization makes LC-QAT highly data-efficient. Experiments across diverse LLMs demonstrate that LC-QAT consistently outperforms state-of-the-art QAT methods while using only 0.1%--10% of the training data. Our results establish LC-QAT as a practical and scalable solution for extreme low-bit model deployment. Codes are publicly available at https://github.com/AI9Stars/UniSVQ.
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