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AI Deception: Risks, Dynamics, and Controls

arXiv:2511.22619v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: As intelligence increases, so does its shadow. AI deception, in which systems induce false beliefs to secure self-beneficial outcomes, has evolved from a speculative concern to an empirically demonstrated risk across language models, AI agents, and emerging frontier systems. This project provides a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of the AI deception field, covering its core concepts, methodologies, genesis, and potential mitigations. First, we identify a formal definition of AI deception, grounded in signaling theory from studies of animal deception. We then review existing empirical studies and associated risks, highlighting deception as a sociotechnical safety challenge. We organize the landscape of AI deception research as a deception cycle, consisting of two key components: deception emergence and deception treatment. Deception emergence reveals the mechanisms underlying AI deception: systems with sufficient capability and incentive potential inevitably engage in deceptive behaviors when triggered by external conditions. Deception treatment, in turn, focuses on detecting and addressing such behaviors. On deception emergence, we analyze incentive foundations across three hierarchical levels and identify three essential capability preconditions required for deception. We further examine contextual triggers, including supervision gaps, distributional shifts, and environmental pressures. On deception treatment, we conclude detection methods covering benchmarks and evaluation protocols in static and interactive settings. Building on the three core factors of deception emergence, we outline potential mitigation strategies and propose auditing approaches that integrate technical, community, and governance efforts to address sociotechnical challenges and future AI risks. To support ongoing work in this area, we release a living resource at www.deceptionsurvey.com.

Association of HTR1F with Prognosis, Tumor Immune Microenvironment, and Drug Sensitivity in Cancer: A Multi-Omics Perspective

27 September 2025 at 18:00

Biomedicines. 2025 Sep 11;13(9):2238. doi: 10.3390/biomedicines13092238.

ABSTRACT

Background:HTR1F (5-Hydroxytryptamine Receptor 1F) encodes a G protein-coupled receptor involved in serotonin signaling. Although dysregulated HTR1F expression has been implicated in certain malignancies, its biological functions and clinical significance across cancer types remain largely unexplored. Methods: We performed an integrative pan-cancer analysis of transcriptomic and pharmacogenomic datasets covering 34 cancer types (PAN-CAN cohort, N = 19,131; normal tissues, G = 60,499). Drug sensitivity and molecular docking analyses were conducted using the GSCALite database. The protein-protein interaction (PPI) network of HTR1F was constructed via the STRING database. Additionally, we evaluated the effects of HTR1F overexpression on proliferation and invasion in human lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC) cell lines NCI-H520 and NCI-H226. Results:HTR1F expression was significantly upregulated in 17 cancer types and was associated with poor prognosis, with LUSC showing an AUC of 0.912 for 1-year survival prediction. In LUSC, 695 genes were upregulated and 67 downregulated in response to HTR1F overexpression. HTR1F expression correlated with immune-related genes, immune checkpoints, tumor-infiltrating immune cells, tumor mutation burden (TMB), microsatellite instability (MSI), and drug responses. Genomic alterations, including amplification and deletion, were positively associated with HTR1F expression. Drug sensitivity analysis identified compounds such as sotrastaurin (-10.2 kcal/mol), austocystin D (-9.7 kcal/mol), and tivozanib (-9.3 kcal/mol) as potentially effective inhibitors based on predicted binding affinity. Functional enrichment analyses (GO, KEGG) and GSEA revealed that HTR1F is primarily involved in cell cycle regulation, DNA replication, cellular senescence, and immune-related pathways. Functional validation showed that HTR1F overexpression promotes proliferation of LUSC cells via the MAPK signaling pathway. Conclusions: Our integrative analysis highlights HTR1F as a potential biomarker associated with prognosis, immune modulation, and drug sensitivity across multiple cancer types. These findings provide a foundation for future experimental and clinical studies to explore HTR1F-targeted therapies.

PMID:41007799 | PMC:PMC12467612 | DOI:10.3390/biomedicines13092238

Cell-free epigenomes enhanced fragmentomics-based model for early detection of lung cancer

Clin Transl Med. 2025 Feb;15(2):e70225. doi: 10.1002/ctm2.70225.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is a leading cause of cancer mortality, highlighting the need for innovative non-invasive early detection methods. Although cell-free DNA (cfDNA) analysis shows promise, its sensitivity in early-stage lung cancer patients remains a challenge. This study aimed to integrate insights from epigenetic modifications and fragmentomic features of cfDNA using machine learning to develop a more accurate lung cancer detection model.

METHODS: To address this issue, a multi-centre prospective cohort study was conducted, with participants harbouring suspicious malignant lung nodules and healthy volunteers recruited from two clinical centres. Plasma cfDNA was analysed for its epigenetic and fragmentomic profiles using chromatin immunoprecipitation sequencing, reduced representation bisulphite sequencing and low-pass whole-genome sequencing. Machine learning algorithms were then employed to integrate the multi-omics data, aiding in the development of a precise lung cancer detection model.

RESULTS: Cancer-related changes in cfDNA fragmentomics were significantly enriched in specific genes marked by cell-free epigenomes. A total of 609 genes were identified, and the corresponding cfDNA fragmentomic features were utilised to construct the ensemble model. This model achieved a sensitivity of 90.4% and a specificity of 83.1%, with an AUC of 0.94 in the independent validation set. Notably, the model demonstrated exceptional sensitivity for stage I lung cancer cases, achieving 95.1%. It also showed remarkable performance in detecting minimally invasive adenocarcinoma, with a sensitivity of 96.2%, highlighting its potential for early detection in clinical settings.

CONCLUSIONS: With feature selection guided by multiple epigenetic sequencing approaches, the cfDNA fragmentomics-based machine learning model demonstrated outstanding performance in the independent validation cohort. These findings highlight its potential as an effective non-invasive strategy for the early detection of lung cancer.

KEYPOINTS: Our study elucidated the regulatory relationships between epigenetic modifications and their effects on fragmentomic features. Identifying epigenetically regulated genes provided a critical foundation for developing the cfDNA fragmentomics-based machine learning model. The model demonstrated exceptional clinical performance, highlighting its substantial potential for translational application in clinical practice.

PMID:39909829 | PMC:PMC11798665 | DOI:10.1002/ctm2.70225

Deep whole-genome analysis of 494 hepatocellular carcinomas

Nature, Published online: 14 February 2024; doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07054-3

The Chinese Liver Cancer Atlas project depicts a panoramic genomic landscape of hepatocellular carcinoma, covering candidate coding and non-coding drivers, mutational signatures, extrachromosomal circular DNA, subclonal catastrophic events and detailed evolutionary history.
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