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Let Experts Feel Uncertainty: A Multi-Expert Label Distribution Approach to Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2602.04678v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Time series forecasting in real-world applications requires both high predictive accuracy and interpretable uncertainty quantification. Traditional point prediction methods often fail to capture the inherent uncertainty in time series data, while existing probabilistic approaches struggle to balance computational efficiency with interpretability. We propose a novel Multi-Expert Learning Distributional Labels (LDL) framework that addresses these challenges through mixture-of-experts architectures with distributional learning capabilities. Our approach introduces two complementary methods: (1) Multi-Expert LDL, which employs multiple experts with different learned parameters to capture diverse temporal patterns, and (2) Pattern-Aware LDL-MoE, which explicitly decomposes time series into interpretable components (trend, seasonality, changepoints, volatility) through specialized sub-experts. Both frameworks extend traditional point prediction to distributional learning, enabling rich uncertainty quantification through Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). We evaluate our methods on aggregated sales data derived from the M5 dataset, demonstrating superior performance compared to baseline approaches. The continuous Multi-Expert LDL achieves the best overall performance, while the Pattern-Aware LDL-MoE provides enhanced interpretability through component-wise analysis. Our frameworks successfully balance predictive accuracy with interpretability, making them suitable for real-world forecasting applications where both performance and actionable insights are crucial.

WisPaper: Your AI Scholar Search Engine

arXiv:2512.06879v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Researchers struggle to efficiently locate and manage relevant literature within the exponentially growing body of scientific publications. We present \textsc{WisPaper}, an intelligent academic retrieval and literature management platform that addresses this challenge through three integrated capabilities: (1) \textit{Scholar Search}, featuring both quick keyword-based and deep agentic search modes for efficient paper discovery; (2) \textit{Library}, a customizable knowledge base for systematic literature organization; and (3) \textit{AI Feeds}, an intelligent recommendation system that automatically delivers relevant new publications based on user interests. Unlike existing academic tools, \textsc{WisPaper} provides a closed-loop workflow that seamlessly connects literature discovery, management, and continuous tracking of research frontiers. Our multilingual and multidisciplinary system significantly reduces the time researchers from diverse backgrounds spend on paper screening and management, enabling them to focus on their core research activities. The platform is publicly accessible and serves researchers across academia and industry.

20 years of histone lysine demethylases: From discovery to the clinic and beyond

Histone lysine demethylases are conserved enzymes that remove methyl groups from histone proteins and play important roles in development and disease. On the 20th anniversary of their discovery, this Review provides an in-depth view of their functions and roles across various contexts as well as therapeutic options to be developed for diseases related to these enzymes.

Identifying specific functional roles for senescence across cell types

A dual recombinase-mediated genetic system for cell-type-specific lineage tracing, ablation, and gene manipulation of senescent cells reveals distinct roles of senescence across cell types.
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