arXiv:2510.26995v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) excel at numerical estimation but struggle to correctly quantify uncertainty. We study how well LLMs construct confidence intervals around their own answers and find that they are systematically overconfident. To evaluate this behavior, we introduce FermiEval, a benchmark of Fermi-style estimation questions with a rigorous scoring rule for confidence interval coverage and sharpness. Across several modern models, nominal 99\% intervals cover the true answer only 65\% of the time on average. With a conformal prediction based approach that adjusts the intervals, we obtain accurate 99\% observed coverage, and the Winkler interval score decreases by 54\%. We also propose direct log-probability elicitation and quantile adjustment methods, which further reduce overconfidence at high confidence levels. Finally, we develop a perception-tunnel theory explaining why LLMs exhibit overconfidence: when reasoning under uncertainty, they act as if sampling from a truncated region of their inferred distribution, neglecting its tails.

arXiv:2510.25935v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: CodeSight is an end-to-end system designed to anticipate deadline compliance in software development workflows. It captures development and deployment data directly from GitHub, transforming it into process mining logs for detailed analysis. From these logs, the system generates metrics and dashboards that provide actionable insights into PR activity patterns and workflow efficiency. Building on this structured representation, CodeSight employs an LSTM model that predicts remaining PR resolution times based on sequential activity traces and static features, enabling early identification of potential deadline breaches. In tests, the system demonstrates high precision and F1 scores in predicting deadline compliance, illustrating the value of integrating process mining with machine learning for proactive software project management.