In just a couple of weeks, we’ll be bidding farewell to 2025. And what a year it has been! Artificial intelligence is being incorporated into more aspects of our lives, weight-loss drugs have expanded in scope, and there have been some real “omg” biotech stories from the fields of gene therapy, IVF, neurotech, and more.   

As always, the team at MIT Technology Review has been putting together our 2026 list of breakthrough technologies. That will be published in the new year (watch this space). In the meantime, my colleague Antonio Regalado has compiled his traditional list of the year’s worst technologies.

I’m inviting you to put your own memory to the test. Just how closely have you been paying attention to the Checkup emails that have been landing in your inbox this year?!

This article first appeared in The Checkup, MIT Technology Review’s weekly biotech newsletter. To receive it in your inbox every Thursday, and read articles like this first, sign up here.

arXiv:2512.15783v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AI Epidemiology is a framework for governing and explaining advanced AI systems by applying population-level surveillance methods to AI outputs. The approach mirrors the way in which epidemiologists enable public health interventions through statistical evidence before molecular mechanisms are understood. This bypasses the problem of model complexity which plagues current interpretability methods (such as SHAP and mechanistic interpretability) at the scale of deployed models. AI Epidemiology achieves this population-level surveillance by standardising capture of AI-expert interactions into structured assessment fields: risk level, alignment score, and accuracy score. These function as exposure variables which predict output failure through statistical associations, much like cholesterol and blood pressure act as exposure variables predicting cardiac events. Output-failure associations are subsequently validated against expert overrides and real-world outcomes. The framework places zero burden on experts and provides automatic audit trails by passively tracking expert convergence and divergence with AI recommendations. Since it analyses outputs rather than internal model computations, it also provides governance continuity when institutions update models and switch vendors. Finally, by providing reliability scores and semantic assessments (e.g. 'this recommendation resembles 500 cases overridden by experts due to guideline violations'), it enables experts and institutions to detect unreliable AI outputs before they cause harm. This democratises AI oversight by enabling domain experts to govern AI systems without requiring machine learning expertise.

arXiv:2512.15943v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As organizations scale adoption of generative AI, model cost optimization and operational efficiency have emerged as critical factors determining sustainability and accessibility. While Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities across diverse tasks, their extensive computational requirements make them cost-prohibitive for routine enterprise use. This limitation motivates the exploration of Small Language Models (SLMs), which can deliver comparable performance in targeted applications while drastically reducing infrastructure overhead (Irugalbandara et al., 2023). In this work, we investigate the feasibility of replacing LLM-driven workflows with optimized SLMs. We trained a domain-adapted SLM to execute representative tasks traditionally handled by LLMs, such as document summarization, query answering, and structured data interpretation. As part of the experiment, we investigated the fine-tuning of facebook/opt-350m model (single epoch only) using the Hugging Face TRL (Transformer Reinforcement Learning), specifically the Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) trainer. The OPT-350M model was released by Meta AI in 2022 as part of the OPT (Open Pretrained Transformer) family of models. Similar studies demonstrate that even models at the 350M parameter scale can meaningfully contribute to instruction-tuning pipelines (Mekala et al., 2024). Experimental results demonstrated that our fine-tuned SLM achieves exceptional performance with a 77.55\% pass rate on ToolBench evaluation, significantly outperforming all baseline models including ChatGPT-CoT (26.00\%), ToolLLaMA-DFS (30.18\%), and ToolLLaMA-CoT (16.27\%). These findings emphasize that thoughtful design and targeted training of SLMs can significantly lower barriers to adoption, enabling cost-effective, large-scale integration of generative AI into production systems.

arXiv:2512.16344v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) is commonly depicted as transformative. Yet, after more than a decade of hype, its measurable impact remains modest outside a few high-profile scientific and commercial successes. The 2024 Nobel Prizes in Chemistry and Physics recognized AI's potential, but broader assessments indicate the impact to date is often more promotional than technical. We argue that while current AI may influence physics, physics has significantly more to offer this generation of AI. Current architectures - large language models, reasoning models, and agentic AI - can depend on trillions of meaningless parameters, suffer from distributional bias, lack uncertainty quantification, provide no mechanistic insights, and fail to capture even elementary scientific laws. We review critiques of these limits, highlight opportunities in quantum AI and analogue computing, and lay down a roadmap for the adoption of 'Big AI': a synthesis of theory-based rigour with the flexibility of machine learning.

arXiv:2512.16442v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The rapidly growing popularity of adopting Artificial Intelligence (AI), and specifically Large Language Models (LLMs), is having a widespread impact throughout society, including the academic domain. AI-supported research has the potential to support researchers with tasks across the entire research life cycle. In this work, we demonstrate the TIB AIssistant, an AI-supported research platform providing support throughout the research life cycle. The AIssistant consists of a collection of assistants, each responsible for a specific research task. In addition, tools are provided to give access to external scholarly services. Generated data is stored in the assets and can be exported as an RO-Crate bundle to provide transparency and enhance reproducibility of the research project. We demonstrate the AIssistant's main functionalities by means of a sequential walk-through of assistants, interacting with each other to generate sections for a draft research paper. In the end, with the AIssistant, we lay the foundation for a larger agenda of providing a community-maintained platform for AI-supported research.

npj Digital Medicine, Published online: 17 December 2025; doi:10.1038/s41746-025-02138-4

Machine learning-based predictions of healthcare contacts following emergency hospitalisation using electronic health records

arXiv:2512.16856v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AI safety and alignment research has predominantly been focused on methods for safeguarding individual AI systems, resting on the assumption of an eventual emergence of a monolithic Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The alternative AGI emergence hypothesis, where general capability levels are first manifested through coordination in groups of sub-AGI individual agents with complementary skills and affordances, has received far less attention. Here we argue that this patchwork AGI hypothesis needs to be given serious consideration, and should inform the development of corresponding safeguards and mitigations. The rapid deployment of advanced AI agents with tool-use capabilities and the ability to communicate and coordinate makes this an urgent safety consideration. We therefore propose a framework for distributional AGI safety that moves beyond evaluating and aligning individual agents. This framework centers on the design and implementation of virtual agentic sandbox economies (impermeable or semi-permeable), where agent-to-agent transactions are governed by robust market mechanisms, coupled with appropriate auditability, reputation management, and oversight to mitigate collective risks.

arXiv:2512.15769v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The increasing use of generative models such as diffusion models for synthetic data augmentation has greatly reduced the cost of data collection and labeling in downstream perception tasks. However, this new data source paradigm may introduce important security concerns. This work investigates backdoor propagation in such emerging generative data supply chains, namely Data-Chain Backdoor (DCB). Specifically, we find that open-source diffusion models can become hidden carriers of backdoors. Their strong distribution-fitting ability causes them to memorize and reproduce backdoor triggers during generation, which are subsequently inherited by downstream models, resulting in severe security risks. This threat is particularly concerning under clean-label attack scenarios, as it remains effective while having negligible impact on the utility of the synthetic data. Furthermore, we discover an Early-Stage Trigger Manifestation (ESTM) phenomenon: backdoor trigger patterns tend to surface more explicitly in the early, high-noise stages of the diffusion model's reverse generation process before being subtly integrated into the final samples. Overall, this work reveals a previously underexplored threat in generative data pipelines and provides initial insights toward mitigating backdoor risks in synthetic data generation.

arXiv:2512.16235v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Dermatological conditions affect 1.9 billion people globally, yet accurate diagnosis remains challenging due to limited specialist availability and complex clinical presentations. Family history significantly influences skin disease susceptibility and treatment responses, but is often underutilized in diagnostic processes. This research addresses the critical question: How can AI-powered systems integrate family history data with clinical imaging to enhance dermatological diagnosis while supporting clinical trial validation and real-world implementation? We developed a comprehensive multi-modal AI framework that combines deep learning-based image analysis with structured clinical data, including detailed family history patterns. Our approach employs interpretable convolutional neural networks integrated with clinical decision trees that incorporate hereditary risk factors. The methodology includes prospective clinical trials across diverse healthcare settings to validate AI-assisted diagnosis against traditional clinical assessment. In this work, validation was conducted with healthcare professionals to assess AI-assisted outputs against clinical expectations; prospective clinical trials across diverse healthcare settings are proposed as future work. The integrated AI system demonstrates enhanced diagnostic accuracy when family history data is incorporated, particularly for hereditary skin conditions such as melanoma, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis. Expert feedback indicates potential for improved early detection and more personalized recommendations; formal clinical trials are planned. The framework is designed for integration into clinical workflows while maintaining interpretability through explainable AI mechanisms.

arXiv:2512.16433v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multi-agent systems have demonstrated the ability to improve performance on a variety of predictive tasks by leveraging collaborative decision making. However, the lack of effective evaluation methodologies has made it difficult to estimate the risk of bias, making deployment of such systems unsafe in high stakes domains such as consumer finance, where biased decisions can translate directly into regulatory breaches and financial loss. To address this challenge, we need to develop fairness evaluation methodologies for multi-agent predictive systems and measure the fairness characteristics of these systems in the financial tabular domain. Examining fairness metrics using large-scale simulations across diverse multi-agent configurations, with varying communication and collaboration mechanisms, we reveal patterns of emergent bias in financial decision-making that cannot be traced to individual agent components, indicating that multi-agent systems may exhibit genuinely collective behaviors. Our findings highlight that fairness risks in financial multi-agent systems represent a significant component of model risk, with tangible impacts on tasks such as credit scoring and income estimation. We advocate that multi-agent decision systems must be evaluated as holistic entities rather than through reductionist analyses of their constituent components.

arXiv:2512.16455v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In this paper, we describe a federated compute platform dedicated to support Artificial Intelligence in scientific workloads. Putting the effort into reproducible deployments, it delivers consistent, transparent access to a federation of physically distributed e-Infrastructures. Through a comprehensive service catalogue, the platform is able to offer an integrated user experience covering the full Machine Learning lifecycle, including model development (with dedicated interactive development environments), training (with GPU resources, annotation tools, experiment tracking, and federated learning support) and deployment (covering a wide range of deployment options all along the Cloud Continuum). The platform also provides tools for traceability and reproducibility of AI models, integrates with different Artificial Intelligence model providers, datasets and storage resources, allowing users to interact with the broader Machine Learning ecosystem. Finally, it is easily customizable to lower the adoption barrier by external communities.

arXiv:2512.16512v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Achieving high efficiency on AI operators demands precise control over computation and data movement. However, existing scheduling languages are locked into specific compiler ecosystems, preventing fair comparison, reuse, and evaluation across frameworks. No unified interface currently decouples scheduling specification from code generation and measurement. We introduce XTC, a platform that unifies scheduling and performance evaluation across compilers. With its common API and reproducible measurement framework, XTC enables portable experimentation and accelerates research on optimization strategies.

arXiv:2512.16750v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as epistemic partners in everyday reasoning, yet their errors remain predominantly analyzed through predictive metrics rather than through their interpretive effects on human judgment. This study examines how different forms of epistemic failure emerge, are masked, and are tolerated in human AI interaction, where failure is understood as a relational breakdown shaped by model-generated plausibility and human interpretive judgment. We conducted a three round, multi LLM evaluation using interdisciplinary tasks and progressively differentiated assessment frameworks to observe how evaluators interpret model responses across linguistic, epistemic, and credibility dimensions. Our findings show that LLM errors shift from predictive to hermeneutic forms, where linguistic fluency, structural coherence, and superficially plausible citations conceal deeper distortions of meaning. Evaluators frequently conflated criteria such as correctness, relevance, bias, groundedness, and consistency, indicating that human judgment collapses analytical distinctions into intuitive heuristics shaped by form and fluency. Across rounds, we observed a systematic verification burden and cognitive drift. As tasks became denser, evaluators increasingly relied on surface cues, allowing erroneous yet well formed answers to pass as credible. These results suggest that error is not solely a property of model behavior but a co-constructed outcome of generative plausibility and human interpretive shortcuts. Understanding AI epistemic failure therefore requires reframing evaluation as a relational interpretive process, where the boundary between system failure and human miscalibration becomes porous. The study provides implications for LLM assessment, digital literacy, and the design of trustworthy human AI communication.

arXiv:2512.09566v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Drug discovery is a time-consuming and expensive process, with traditional high-throughput and docking-based virtual screening hampered by low success rates and limited scalability. Recent advances in generative modelling, including autoregressive, diffusion, and flow-based approaches, have enabled de novo ligand design beyond the limits of enumerative screening. Yet these models often suffer from inadequate generalization, limited interpretability, and an overemphasis on binding affinity at the expense of key pharmacological properties, thereby restricting their translational utility. Here we present Trio, a molecular generation framework integrating fragment-based molecular language modeling, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo tree search, for effective and interpretable closed-loop targeted molecular design. Through the three key components, Trio enables context-aware fragment assembly, enforces physicochemical and synthetic feasibility, and guides a balanced search between the exploration of novel chemotypes and the exploitation of promising intermediates within protein binding pockets. Experimental results show that Trio reliably achieves chemically valid and pharmacologically enhanced ligands, outperforming state-of-the-art approaches with improved binding affinity (+7.85%), drug-likeness (+11.10%) and synthetic accessibility (+12.05%), while expanding molecular diversity more than fourfold. By combining generalization, plausibility, and interpretability, Trio establishes a closed-loop generative paradigm that redefines how chemical space can be navigated, offering a transformative foundation for the next era of AI-driven drug discovery.

arXiv:2501.12424v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Multimodal sentiment analysis (MSA) identifies individuals' sentiment states in videos by integrating visual, audio, and text modalities. Despite progress in existing methods, the inherent modality heterogeneity limits the effective capture of interactive sentiment features across modalities. In this paper, by introducing a Multi-Modality Collaborative Learning (MMCL) framework, we facilitate cross-modal interactions and capture enhanced and complementary features from modality-common and modality-specific representations, respectively. Specifically, we design a parameter-free decoupling module and separate uni-modality into modality-common and modality-specific components through semantics assessment of cross-modal elements. For modality-specific representations, inspired by the act-reward mechanism in reinforcement learning, we design policy models to adaptively mine complementary sentiment features under the guidance of a joint reward. For modality-common representations, intra-modal attention is employed to highlight crucial components, playing enhanced roles among modalities. Experimental results, including superiority evaluations on four databases, effectiveness verification of each module, and assessment of complementary features, demonstrate that MMCL successfully learns collaborative features across modalities and significantly improves performance. The code can be available at https://github.com/smwanghhh/MMCL.

arXiv:2506.09695v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Early diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease (AD), particularly at the mild cognitive impairment stage, is essential for timely intervention. However, this process faces significant barriers, including reliance on subjective assessments and the high cost of advanced imaging techniques. While deep learning offers automated solutions to improve diagnostic accuracy, its widespread adoption remains constrained due to high energy requirements and computational demands, particularly in resource-limited settings. Spiking neural networks (SNNs) provide a promising alternative, as their brain-inspired design is well-suited to model the sparse and event-driven patterns characteristic of neural degeneration in AD. These networks offer the potential for developing interpretable, energy-efficient diagnostic tools. Despite their advantages, existing SNNs often suffer from limited expressiveness and challenges in stable training, which reduce their effectiveness in handling complex medical tasks. To address these shortcomings, we introduce FasterSNN, a hybrid neural architecture that combines biologically inspired Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (LIF) neurons with region-adaptive convolution and multi-scale spiking attention mechanisms. This approach facilitates efficient, sparse processing of 3D MRI data while maintaining high diagnostic accuracy. Experimental results on benchmark datasets reveal that FasterSNN delivers competitive performance with significantly enhanced efficiency and training stability, highlighting its potential for practical application in AD screening. Our source code is available at https://github.com/wuchangw/FasterSNN.

arXiv:2509.05361v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Transformative AI systems may pose unprecedented catastrophic risks, but the U.S. Constitution places significant constraints on the government's ability to govern this technology. This paper examines how the First Amendment, administrative law, and the Fourteenth Amendment shape the legal vulnerability of two regulatory proposals: model licensing and AI research classification. While the First Amendment may provide some degree of protection for model algorithms or outputs, this protection does not foreclose regulation. Policymakers must also consider administrative legal requirements, due to both agency review and authority. Finally, while substantive due process and equal protection pose minimal obstacles, procedural due process requires the government to clearly define when developers vest a legal interest in their models. Given this analysis, effective AI governance requires careful implementation to avoid these legal challenges.

arXiv:2511.07392v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In robotic surgery, surgeons fully engage their hands and visual attention in procedures, making it difficult to access and manipulate multimodal patient data without interrupting the workflow. To overcome this problem, we propose a Voice-Interactive Surgical Agent (VISA) built on a hierarchical multi-agent framework consisting of an orchestration agent and three task-specific agents driven by Large Language Models (LLMs). These LLM-based agents autonomously plan, refine, validate, and reason to interpret voice commands and execute tasks such as retrieving clinical information, manipulating CT scans, or navigating 3D anatomical models within surgical video. We construct a dataset of 240 user commands organized into hierarchical categories and introduce the Multi-level Orchestration Evaluation Metric (MOEM) that evaluates the performance and robustness at both the command and category levels. Experimental results demonstrate that VISA achieves high stage-level accuracy and workflow-level success rates, while also enhancing its robustness by correcting transcription errors, resolving linguistic ambiguity, and interpreting diverse free-form expressions. These findings highlight the strong potential of VISA to support robotic surgery and its scalability for integrating new functions and agents.

arXiv:2512.01241v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are routinely used by physicians and patients for medical advice, yet their clinical safety profiles remain poorly characterized. We present NOHARM (Numerous Options Harm Assessment for Risk in Medicine), a benchmark using 100 real primary care-to-specialist consultation cases to measure frequency and severity of harm from LLM-generated medical recommendations. NOHARM covers 10 specialties, with 12,747 expert annotations for 4,249 clinical management options. Across 31 LLMs, potential for severe harm from LLM recommendations occurs in up to 22.2% (95% CI 21.6-22.8%) of cases, with harm of omission accounting for 76.6% (95% CI 76.4-76.8%) of errors. Safety performance is only moderately correlated (r = 0.61-0.64) with existing AI and medical knowledge benchmarks. The best models outperform generalist physicians on safety (mean difference 9.7%, 95% CI 7.0-12.5%), and a diverse multi-agent approach improves safety compared to solo models (mean difference 8.0%, 95% CI 4.0-12.1%). Therefore, despite strong performance on existing evaluations, widely used AI models can produce severely harmful medical advice at nontrivial rates, underscoring clinical safety as a distinct performance dimension necessitating explicit measurement.