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Barriers to Complexity-Theoretic Proofs that "AGI" Using Machine Learning is Impossible

arXiv:2411.06498v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: A recent paper (van Rooij et al. 2024) claims to have proved that achieving human-like intelligence using learning from data is intractable in a complexity-theoretic sense. We point out that the proof relies on an unjustified assumption about the distribution of (input, output) tuples in the data. We briefly discuss that assumption in the context of two fundamental barriers to repairing the proof: the need to precisely define ``human-like," and the need to account for the fact that a particular machine learning system will have particular inductive biases that are key to the analysis. Another attempt to repair the proof, by focusing on subsets of the data, faces barriers in terms of defining the subsets.

Prior Knowledge Makes It Possible: From Sublinear Graph Algorithms to LLM Test-Time Methods

arXiv:2510.16609v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Test-time augmentation, such as Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) or tool use, critically depends on an interplay between a model's parametric knowledge and externally retrieved information. However, the theoretical underpinnings of this relationship remain poorly understood. Specifically, it is not clear how much pre-training knowledge is required to answer queries with a small number of augmentation steps, which is a desirable property in practice. To address this question, we formulate multi-step reasoning as an $s$-$t$ connectivity problem on a knowledge graph. We represent a model's pre-training parametric knowledge as a partial, potentially noisy subgraph. We view augmentation as querying an oracle for true edges that augment the model's knowledge. Then, we characterize the necessary and sufficient number of augmentation steps for the model to generate an accurate answer given partial prior knowledge. One key result shows a phase transition: if the prior knowledge graph over $n$ vertices is disconnected into small components, then finding a path via augmentation is inefficient and requires $\Omega(\sqrt{n})$ queries. On the other hand, once the density of correct knowledge surpasses a threshold, forming a giant component, we can find paths with an expected constant number of queries.
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