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Market Regime Council for Dynamic Credit Assignment in Multi-Agent LLM Decision Systems

arXiv:2605.24490v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multi-agent LLM decision systems for portfolio management still lack a principled way to assign credit across specialist agents, remain vulnerable to cold-start dominance under regime shifts, and offer limited transparency into how final allocations are formed. We propose Market Regime Council (MRC), a cooperative multi-agent decision system that computes exact Shapley credits across all single, pairwise, and Grand-coalition outputs for online agent weighting. Instantiated with N=3 specialist agents, at each trading period, MRC recomputes coalition-based Shapley weights from exponentially weighted performance histories, uses a Bayesian adaptive mixture to stabilize early periods, applies regime-dependent multipliers to adjust agent authority, and records each rebalance through a five-layer causal trace. Over 1,037 trading days across 13 crypto assets and five seeds, MRC achieves a Sharpe ratio of 1.51 and a cumulative return of 440.1%, ranking first on CR, SR, and IR among active baselines and attaining the lowest MDD among active methods. Ablation results show that the gains come from Shapley-weighted integration across coalition outputs rather than from any single stage in isolation. Code and demo data are included in the supplementary material.

The Self Driving Portfolio: Agentic Architecture for Institutional Asset Management

arXiv:2604.02279v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Agentic AI shifts the investor's role from analytical execution to oversight. We present an agentic strategic asset allocation pipeline in which approximately 50 specialized agents produce capital market assumptions, construct portfolios using over 20 competing methods, and critique and vote on each other's output. A researcher agent proposes new portfolio construction methods not yet represented, and a meta-agent compares past forecasts against realized returns and rewrites agent code and prompts to improve future performance. The entire pipeline is governed by the Investment Policy Statement--the same document that guides human portfolio managers can now constrain and direct autonomous agents.

Designing Agentic AI-Based Screening for Portfolio Investment

arXiv:2603.23300v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce a new agentic artificial intelligence (AI) platform for portfolio management. Our architecture consists of three layers. First, two large language model (LLM) agents are assigned specialized tasks: one agent screens for firms with desirable fundamentals, while a sentiment analysis agent screens for firms with desirable news. Second, these agents deliberate to generate and agree upon buy and sell signals from a large portfolio, substantially narrowing the pool of candidate assets. Finally, we apply a high-dimensional precision matrix estimation procedure to determine optimal portfolio weights. A defining theoretical feature of our framework is that the number of assets in the portfolio is itself a random variable, realized through the screening process. We introduce the concept of sensible screening and establish that, under mild screening errors, the squared Sharpe ratio of the screened portfolio consistently estimates its target. Empirically, our method achieves superior Sharpe ratios relative to an unscreened baseline portfolio and to conventional screening approaches, evaluated on S&P 500 data over the period 2020--2024.
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