arXiv:2609.12243v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Inference-time power sampling via Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) can substantially improve large language model (LLM) reasoning without requiring post-training. However, many existing SMC approaches rely on equal-weight resampling, which can aggressively prune low-weight trajectories, discarding potentially correct reasoning paths and degrading the genealogical diversity of the search space. To address this, we introduce Chopthin-Consensus Power Sampling (CCPS). Our method applies the Chopthin resampler to LLM decoding: rather than equalizing weights and forcing unnecessary particle duplication, it enforces an upper bound on the ratio between the largest and smallest weights and carries the unequal weights forward. This targeted intervention preserves a richer set of distinct reasoning paths, keeps the weighted SMC approximation unchanged in conditional expectation, and guarantees a lower bound on the post-resampling effective sample size (ESS). To fully exploit this enriched population, we employ a semantic-majority selection mechanism that merges token-identical final trajectories, clusters semantically equivalent answers, and returns the answer supported by the largest number of distinct trajectories. Evaluating across three open-weight models and five reasoning benchmarks, we show that Chopthin increases oracle coverage in 13 of 15 settings. Combined with semantic-majority selection, CCPS matches or exceeds the final-answer accuracy of the Power-SMC baseline in 14 of 15 settings, delivering absolute gains of up to 10.6 percentage points. These findings demonstrate that diversity-preserving resampling and diversity-aware selection are complementary mechanisms for training-free LLM reasoning. Code is available at github.com/MinooAhmadii/chopthin-consensus-power-sampling.

arXiv:2609.12463v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We formulate and analyze the linear exponential quadratic Gaussian (LEQG) covariance steering problem in continuous time over a given deadline (finite time horizon). The solution for this problem can be seen as a risk-sensitive Schr\"{o}dinger bridge between Gaussian endpoints in the linear quadratic setting. Unlike the risk-neutral case, the LEQG covariance steering controller--still a linear state feedback--can no longer be written in closed form. We show that the optimal controller is parameterized by a symmetric matrix solving an algebraic equation that encodes the implicit dependence on the risk-sensitivity parameter. We explain how the structure of this optimal controller significantly generalizes the existing results for the risk-neutral case. Building on these results, for the matched noise and input channel case, we prove the existence-uniqueness of solution for the LEQG covariance steering problem in the neighborhood of the known risk-neutral optimal solution. We give an illustrative numerical example.

arXiv:2506.19960v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable description of bond breaking remains a major challenge for quantum chemistry due to the multireference character of the electronic structure in dissociating species. Multireference methods in particular suffer from large computational cost, which under the normal paradigm has to be paid anew for each system at a full price, ignoring commonalities in electronic structure across molecules. Quantum Monte Carlo with deep neural networks uniquely offers to exploit such commonalities by pretraining transferable wavefunction models, but all such attempts were so far limited in scope. Here, we bring this paradigm to fruition with Orbformer, a transferable wavefunction model pretrained on 22,000 equilibrium and dissociating structures that can be fine-tuned on unseen molecules reaching an accuracy-cost ratio rivalling classical multireference methods. On established benchmarks as well as more challenging bond dissociations and Diels-Alder reactions, Orbformer is the only method that consistently converges to chemical accuracy (1 kcal/mol). This work turns the idea of amortizing the cost of solving the Schr\"odinger equation over many molecules into a practical approach in quantum chemistry.

arXiv:2609.08981v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A growing body of work establishes that large language models are not mere statistical memorizers, but are capable of in-context learning: performing inference at test time using only examples provided in the prompt, without any parameter updates. Prior theoretical work has shown that this capability extends to supervised learning tasks such as linear regression. We prove that in-context learning extends further to \emph{data generation}: frozen transformers can simulate iterative generative samplers from in-context samples. We first show that transformers can realize closed-form and smoothed closed-form diffusion samplers. The construction identifies a concrete generative role for softmax attention: it computes responsibility weights and weighted empirical averages, while feedforward layers implement Euler updates. To empirically relate these constructions to pretrained language models, we study \emph{semantic-topic sampling}: prompts consisting of words drawn from a common semantic category, such as animals, foods, or cities. Across transformer layers, the normalized hidden states exhibit a two-stage geometry: they move toward a uniform spherical reference in intermediate layers and then return to structured, topic-dependent representations near the output. We further measure an interacting-particle energy on these hidden-state clouds and observe the same U-shape pattern. We then prove that transformers can approximate an energy-based sampler, constructing the same U-shape energy across the layers.

arXiv:2609.09244v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The edge-of-chaos condition preserves first-order input perturbations in wide randomly initialized networks, but physics-informed losses, score matching and derivative regularization depend on higher input derivatives. For smooth scalar-input fully connected networks, using a joint Gaussianity of the finite derivative jet that holds in the infinite-width limit at each fixed depth, we derive mean-field recursions through third order that are exact at the variance fixed point, with finite-depth corrections that decay geometrically. At criticality, the first-derivative variance is depth-invariant, whereas the second-derivative variance grows linearly whenever the activation has nonzero curvature. The resulting third-order system closes on mean-field susceptibilities. For residual networks with branch scale L^{-1/2}, we prove that every fixed finite derivative order has uniformly bounded variance under explicit regularity assumptions. Simulations verify the critical growth laws, the residual bound, and the closed recursion. The results concern initialization, not trained-network performance.

arXiv:2609.09245v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Repeated-sampling evaluations increasingly extrapolate pass@k far beyond the number n of samples collected per problem. We show that, in the pooled/random-task conditional-Binomial model, fixed-n success counts identify only the n free moments of the latent per-task success distribution. Consequently, direct pass@k is identified for k n, even with arbitrarily many exchangeable tasks at the same rollout budget. This is stronger than the observation that the usual estimator is undefined beyond n: it characterizes the information missing from the fixed-depth count-law experiment. We give exact count-law-preserving constructions with incompatible extrapolations, state the exceptional unique-extension case, and compute sharp population identified intervals through Hausdorff principal representations. On the public 10,000-rollout-per-problem release of Brown et al., counterfactual n = 16 evaluations leave failure at k = 1000 ambiguous by factors from 1.5 to over 2,600 across four MATH/GSM8K/CodeContests configurations. The calibration shows that intermediate-scale failure share alone does not determine width. Our result does not reject parametric inference-time scaling laws; it supplies the nonparametric baseline against which their assumptions can be evaluated. We give an exact, conservative one-coordinate finite-task confidence certificate and a reporting standard separating direct estimates, identified sets, and model-conditioned forecasts.

arXiv:2609.09556v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Neural networks can leverage feature superposition to encode more concepts than dimensions, but cross-feature interference constrains the linear accessibility of simultaneously active features. By framing linear accessibility as a compressed sensing problem, we derive high-probability bounds for fixed supports under subgaussian noise, proving the sufficient dimension scales linearly ($d=O_{\varepsilon}(k \log m)$) rather than prior worst-case quadratic limits. We then validate these bounds across system parameters through Gaussian-tail approximations. These results quantify the geometric constraints of the linear representation hypothesis, providing a framework for evaluating sparse autoencoders, compositional generalization, and neural interpretability.

arXiv:2609.09572v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Synthetic data has become a promising way to scale model training beyond limited human-generated data but it may also induce strong model collapse (Dohmatob et al., 2024), where any fixed fraction of synthetic data prevents model performance from improving under data scaling, leaving a non-vanishing excess risk floor. In this paper, we study how synthetic data affects the generalization of one-pass SGD in high-dimensional linear regression with model shift. We establish finite-sample risk bounds for mixed and two-stage training, separating standard bias and variance from source-mismatch effects, namely fluctuation and persistent drift under mixing and filtered initialization bias under two-stage. These bounds reveal a sharp contrast: mixed training induces strong model collapse, while two-stage training avoids the floor by using synthetic data only in the first stage, showing that collapse is not inevitable under a simple data curriculum. Under a random sketch model, we further obtain scaling laws for both protocols, with tight results for mixed training in the optimization-saturated regime. These laws show that larger models may amplify synthetic-induced degradation under mixing, and quantify how high-quality synthetic pretraining may reduce bias in two-stage training. Finally, we establish an exact finite-sample necessary-and-sufficient condition for two-stage training to strictly outperform real-only training under the same real-data budget and identical real-stage updates. Overall, our results highlight that synthetic data is neither inherently harmful nor beneficial; its effect depends critically on both its quality and the training protocol used to incorporate it.

arXiv:2609.09905v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Preference alignment for flow and diffusion models now spans online reinforcement learning and offline preference optimization, but the relation between these methods remains unclear. In particular, existing forward-process alignment methods require fresh samples from the current model, while offline methods based on fixed preference pairs rely primarily on positive-only fine-tuning or DPO-style likelihood-ratio surrogates. We organize these approaches through a divergence-based framework and introduce FlowCPO, an offline forward-KL objective that uses both preferred and dispreferred samples without online rollouts. For linear interpolation, we show under explicit regularity conditions that the forward-KL objective is bounded by a contrastive flow matching loss, yielding a tractable surrogate on fixed data. We further show that this loss is nonnegative, whereas the signed regression loss of simplified FlowDPO can be unbounded below. In the in-domain setting, FlowCPO achieves higher mean GenEval and OCR scores than the evaluated baselines, reaching 0.84 and 0.87 versus 0.81 and 0.74 for FlowDPO at CFG 3.0. In the out-of-domain setting, the results are mixed, with the best GenEval result but lower reward scores than RFT on several metrics.

arXiv:2609.10084v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Generalized zero-shot learning (GZSL) has emerged as an important paradigm for visual recognition systems that must generalize to classes that were not observed during training. Traditional GZSL techniques are limited by their applicability to a relatively small number of such unseen classes, scalability beyond which is challenging due to its well-known misclassification bias towards classes observed during training. In this work, we investigate the GZSL paradigm through the lens of zero-shot handwritten word recognition over extremely large vocabularies. We propose a statistical approach to rectifying this bias, which views any classical GZSL feature learner as a black box mechanism whose intrinsic bias in identifying the training status (seen vs. unseen) of a typical data point we aim to correct, similar to an out of distribution inferential problem. Our method leverages a simple two-stage hierarchical architecture, combining a classical GZSL blackbox in the first stage and an ensemble of lightweight Monte Carlo bias-correctors in the second. Once debiased, the classification of test data is undertaken only restricted to its predicted training status via well-founded statistical methods (eg nearest neighbour, logistic regression and random forests). We achieve relative accuracy improvements of over 20% in the classification of unseen words compared to established techniques. A key outcome is that word recognition over large scale vocabularies is amenable to a much lower dimensional representation (~15 dimensions). Our approach is underpinned by mathematical analysis that captures the essence of the statistical approach to bias correction. Our approach to bias rectification can be combined in a turn-key fashion with any classical GZSL learner as a blackbox, thereby suggesting a wide scope of applicability of this method for a wide variety of GZSL implementations in different domains.

arXiv:2506.06454v2 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Real-world time series are often governed by complex nonlinear dynamics. Understanding these underlying dynamics is crucial for precise future prediction. While deep learning has achieved major success in time series forecasting, many existing approaches do not explicitly model the dynamics. To bridge this gap, we introduce DeepEDM, a framework that integrates nonlinear dynamical systems modeling with deep neural networks. Inspired by empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) and rooted in Takens' theorem, DeepEDM presents a novel deep model that learns a latent space from time-delayed embeddings, and employs kernel regression to approximate the underlying dynamics, while leveraging efficient implementation of softmax attention and allowing for accurate prediction of future time steps. To evaluate our method, we conduct comprehensive experiments on synthetic data of nonlinear dynamical systems as well as real-world time series across domains. Our results show that DeepEDM is robust to input noise, and outperforms state-of-the-art methods in forecasting accuracy. Our code is available at: https://abrarmajeedi.github.io/deep_edm.

arXiv:2605.24212v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deploying clinical prediction models across healthcare systems often fails when key training covariates are unavailable at deployment and labeled outcomes are limited in the target domain. For example, high-performing models for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) rely on detailed prehospital measurements routinely collected in high-resource settings but unavailable in many international registries. Existing methods either discard missing covariates, sacrificing predictive information, or rely on untestable assumptions about their target distribution. We propose DRUM (\underline{D}istributionally \underline{R}obust \underline{U}nsupervised transfer learning with structurally \underline{M}issing covariates), a framework that transfers prediction models to target populations where certain covariates are structurally absent and outcome labels are unavailable. DRUM partitions covariates into shared components ($X$), observed across all settings, and missing components ($A$), observed only in the source. Rather than imputing missing covariates, DRUM optimizes worst-case predictive performance over the unknown target distribution of $A \mid X$ using a neural network generator, with a robustness parameter controlling allowable deviation from the source conditional. We further develop a bias correction procedure that reduces sensitivity to nuisance estimation error. Simulations show substantial improvements in both mean and worst-case prediction error under distribution shift. Applied to cross-national OHCA prediction, transferring models from a US registry to multiple Asian registries where prehospital variables are unrecorded, DRUM yields better-calibrated predictions and improved clinical classification performance across sites.

arXiv:2605.24243v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In 3D scene understanding, deep learning models rely on large models and extensive training to capture basic geometric structures that are present in the 3D data. However, existing methods lack explicit mechanisms to incorporate geometric information, such as learnable primitive shapes, often necessitating large models and more training data which in turn increases cost and can limit generalization. We introduce GIBLy, a lightweight geometric inductive bias layer that integrates learnable geometric priors into 3D segmentation pipelines. GIBLy enhances existing architectures -- whether MLP-based, convolution-based, or transformer-based -- by providing features aligned with simple geometric shapes (and thus human-interpretable) that improve segmentation performance with minimal computational overhead. We validate our approach across multiple 3D semantic segmentation benchmarks, demonstrating consistent performance gains, including up to +11.5% mIoU on TS40K with PTV3, while adding only 58K extra parameters. Our results highlight the benefit of explicitly encoding geometric structure to support accurate and efficient 3D scene understanding, with a lightweight add-on layer

arXiv:2605.24381v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Time series forecasting drives operational decisions in areas like finance, transportation, and energy. While supervised learning approaches achieve strong performance, they require domain-specific training, feature engineering, and ongoing maintenance. Large-scale foundation models have recently emerged as a zero-shot alternative, avoiding task-specific training much like LLMs. In this work, we evaluate foundation models against standard supervised approaches. Rather than focusing solely on aggregate accuracy, we analyze performance across four operational regimes: periodic human-centric systems, physically constrained processes, stochastic financial markets, and heterogeneous demand forecasting. Our results characterize optimal deployment areas. Foundation models perform well in domains with transferable periodic structures and are efficient for cold-start or long-tail scenarios. Conversely, supervised specialists maintain higher precision in systems governed by strict physical constraints. In financial domains, newer foundation models are rapidly closing the performance gap with supervised specialists. We further quantify trade-offs in inference latency, data drift adaptability, and deployment constraints. Finally, we propose a Complexity Router that assigns each series to the optimal model class using empirical features. We demonstrate that this selective routing achieves higher accuracy and significantly lower inference costs compared to deploying a universal foundation model, providing a practical framework for balancing generalization and efficiency.

arXiv:2605.24920v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Quaternion neural networks are parameter-efficient and model multidimensional dependencies by representing four related features as a single entity. However, existing quaternion self-attention computes component-wise scores and applies independent softmax operations to each component, which increases the computational cost and allows attention distributions to diverge across components. We propose a shared-score quaternion self-attention mechanism that computes a single real-valued score using the quaternion inner product and applies a shared attention distribution across all components. This reduces score-computation multiplications by 75% and the number of softmax operations from four to one. We prove that, when queries and keys are produced by quaternion linear projections that induce component pre-mixing, the component-wise and shared scores lie in the same interaction subspace, indicating that independent component-wise attention primarily re-parameterizes the same interactions rather than expanding the feature interaction space. In speech enhancement, our method reduces inference time by up to 44.3% on a GPU and 58.1% on a CPU while maintaining quality, with consistent trends across vision and natural language processing.

arXiv:2605.25123v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study inference-time alignment for diffusion-based generative models, aiming to steer a base model toward high-reward outputs without updating its weights. Recent Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)-based steering methods approximate reward-tilted target distributions in a principled way, but their proposals remain largely tied to the base sampler. Since reward information is mainly used after propagation through particle reweighting and resampling, these methods can require large particle budgets and suffer from weight degeneracy and high-variance estimates. One way to reduce variance and improve particle efficiency is to iteratively learn twisting functions that provide look-ahead guidance, as in twisted SMC. However, existing learnable twisting methods are developed mainly for classical sequential inference and can be unstable when applied to diffusion-based alignment with high-dimensional state spaces and terminal, noisy, or black-box rewards. We propose Trust-Region Iterative Twisted Sequential Monte Carlo (TRI-TSMC), a trust-region framework for learning twisting functions in SMC-based inference-time alignment. Each iteration computes an exact KL-constrained update in path space, which admits a closed-form solution by tempered importance reweighting, and projects this target back to the parameterized twisted family by weighted maximum likelihood. Theoretically, we formalize the value-function interpretation of the optimal twisting function and show that it yields a zero-variance sampler. We prove that the trust-region update follows an escort path toward the target distribution, that the weighted maximum-likelihood update is a forward-KL projection, and that the path reduces residual importance-weight variance. Empirically, TRI-TSMC improves primary alignment objectives on discrete diffusion text generation and text-to-image generation under matched inference-time budgets.

arXiv:2605.25210v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Diffusion models are increasingly used as powerful conditional generators, yet real deployments often involve multiple target distributions arising from different tasks, e.g., diverse prompt domains in text-to-image generation, or multiple environments in robotics with diffusion policies. This naturally leads to a multi-objective learning (MOL) problem. A key challenge is that achieving good Pareto trade-offs can require a generalist model class with substantially larger capacity than what suffices for solving any individual task, thereby increasing statistical cost since sample complexity typically scales with the model complexity. To reconcile this, we develop a principled MOL framework for diffusion models with limited data: a semi-supervised regime where paired (labeled) samples are scarce, but (unlabeled) condition data are abundant. We propose a two-stage training procedure that first fits lightweight specialist models from limited paired data, and then distills them into a generalist model by generating pseudo-samples. We establish generalization bounds showing that the required number of paired samples only depends on the complexity of the specialist model classes. We further extend the theory to diffusion policies for sequential decision making to account for distribution shift in on-policy rollouts. Extensive experiments on robotic control and image restoration tasks are conducted to verify our theoretical results.

arXiv:2605.25234v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Epistemic uncertainty is often viewed as a reducible uncertainty that vanishes with increasing data. This perspective implicitly assumes parameter identifiability and equates epistemic uncertainty with predictive variability. In overparametrized neural networks, however, model parameters are typically non-identifiable due to symmetries and redundant representations. As a consequence, substantial parameter uncertainty can persist even when the underlying function is fully identified. In this work, we analyze epistemic uncertainty through the lens of non-identifiability and characterize both discrete and continuous sources of residual uncertainty. Focusing on one-hidden-layer ReLU networks, we thoroughly analyze the resulting posterior structure and validate our theoretical insights through empirical studies.

arXiv:2605.25313v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: World models for partially observed environments must imagine multiple compatible hidden futures and steer between them under counterfactual actions. Joint Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) do this in latent space, but a vector-valued latent has no internal structure for carrying the belief over hidden continuations through blind rollout. We introduce the Unitary World Model JEPA (UWM-JEPA), a JEPA world model with a density-matrix latent on a joint system-environment space and a learned unitary predictor. The construction preserves the joint-state spectrum exactly during rollout, so the predictor itself cannot dissipate the represented uncertainty. On a hidden-velocity indicator task requiring five-step forward simulation under a given action sequence with the target observation masked, UWM-JEPA reaches 0.77 accuracy and degrades monotonically as actions are perturbed; a parameter-matched LSTM-JEPA trained under the same counterfactual-target objective and action head collapses to majority-class accuracy (0.53) under every action condition. Under blind rollout, UWM-JEPA loses fewer than ten points of probe R^2 at short horizons while vector-latent baselines lose forty-one and sixty-eight; both nevertheless tie on a held-out context probe, locating the separation in the predictor rather than the encoder. Action sensitivity itself requires training against counterfactual rather than teacher-forced targets, a finding that applies beyond the unitary parameterisation. For JEPA world models to imagine under partial observability, latent geometry and predictor dynamics matter, not frozen context-encoding capacity alone.

arXiv:2605.25773v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Efficient benchmarking techniques aim to lower the computational cost of evaluating LLMs by predicting full benchmark scores using only a subset of a benchmark's questions. By reframing this problem as an instance of multiple regression with feature selection, we find that existing efficient benchmarking methods can be greatly improved by simply using kernel ridge regression at the prediction stage. Additionally, using an information-theoretic feature-selection algorithm called minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR), we can further improve upon these methods by selecting question subsets that will be maximally useful for prediction. Except in very data-poor settings, these approaches consistently achieve smaller prediction errors (in both MAE and RMSE), and greater ranking correlation between predicted and true scores (in both Spearman $\rho$ and Kendall $\tau$) across a range of benchmarks using both binary and continuous metrics. Furthermore, mRMR subsampling is much faster than competitor methods (which often involve fitting probabilistic models or running clustering algorithms), and is more likely to select the same questions under different random seeds or training data splits. Tutorial code can be found at https://github.com/sambowyer/mrmr_eval .