arXiv:2605.22795v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We propose and analyze a conservative drifting method for one-step generative modeling. The method replaces the original displacement-based drifting velocity by a kernel density estimator (KDE)-gradient velocity, namely the difference of the kernel-smoothed data score and the kernel-smoothed model score. This velocity is a gradient field, addressing the non-conservatism issue identified for general displacement-based drifting fields. We prove continuous-time finite-particle convergence bounds for the conservative method on $\R^d$: a joint-entropy identity yields bounds for the empirical Stein drift, the smoothed Fisher discrepancy of the KDE, and the squared center velocity. The main finite-particle correction is a reciprocal-KDE self-interaction term, and we give deterministic and high-probability local-occupancy conditions under which this term is controlled. We keep the quadrature constants explicit and track their possible bandwidth dependence: the root residual-velocity rate $N^{-1/(d+4)}$ holds under an additional $h$-uniform quadrature regularity condition, while a more general growth condition yields the optimized root rate $N^{-(2-\beta)/(2(d+4-\beta))}$, where $0\le \beta

arXiv:2512.11919v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The notion of causal effect is fundamental across many scientific disciplines. Traditionally, quantitative researchers have studied causal effects at the level of variables; for example, how a certain drug dose (W) causally affects a patient's blood pressure (Y). However, in many modern data domains, the raw variables-such as pixels in an image or tokens in a language model-do not have the semantic structure needed to formulate meaningful causal questions. In this paper, we offer a more fine-grained perspective by studying causal effects at the level of events, drawing inspiration from probability theory, where core notions such as independence are first given for events and sigma-algebras, before random variables enter the picture. Within the measure-theoretic framework of causal spaces, a recently introduced axiomatisation of causality, we first introduce several binary definitions that determine whether a causal effect is present, as well as proving some properties of them linking causal effect to (in)dependence under an intervention measure. Further, we provide quantifying measures that capture the strength and nature of causal effects on events, and show that we can recover the common measures of treatment effect as special cases.

arXiv:2603.06616v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Efficiently routing queries to the optimal large language model (LLM) is crucial for optimizing the cost-performance trade-off in multi-model systems. However, most existing routers rely on single-model selection, making them susceptible to misrouting. In this work, we formulate LLM routing as the $\alpha$-VOR problem to minimize expected set size while controlling the misrouting risk, and propose a novel method -- RACER, extending base routers to output model sets that can be subsequently aggregated for improved output. In particular, RACER constructs nested model sets via augmented scoring and utilizes finite-sample concentration bounds to calibrate a threshold that allows for both variable set sizes and abstention. We theoretically prove that RACER achieves rigorous distribution-free risk control on unseen test data in a post-hoc and model-agnostic manner. Extensive experiments verify our theoretical guarantees and demonstrate that RACER consistently enhances downstream accuracy across a wide range of benchmarks.

arXiv:2603.07887v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Inference-time methods that aggregate and prune multiple samples have emerged as a powerful paradigm for steering large language models, yet we lack any principled understanding of their accuracy-cost tradeoffs. In this paper, we introduce a route to rigorously study such approaches using the lens of *particle filtering* algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). Given a base language model and a *process reward model* estimating expected terminal rewards, we ask: *how accurately can we sample from a target distribution given some number of process reward evaluations?* Theoretically, we identify (1) simple criteria enabling non-asymptotic guarantees for SMC; (2) algorithmic improvements to SMC; and (3) a fundamental limit faced by all particle filtering methods. Empirically, we demonstrate that our theoretical criteria effectively govern the *sampling error* of SMC, though not necessarily its final *accuracy*, suggesting that theoretical perspectives beyond sampling may be necessary.

arXiv:2603.03700v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Despite the remarkable empirical success of score-based diffusion models, their statistical guarantees remain underdeveloped. Existing analyses often provide pessimistic convergence rates that do not reflect the intrinsic low-dimensional structure common in real data, such as that arising in natural images. In this work, we study the statistical convergence of score-based diffusion models for learning an unknown distribution $\mu$ from finitely many samples. Under mild regularity conditions on the forward diffusion process and the data distribution, we derive finite-sample error bounds on the learned generative distribution, measured in the Wasserstein-$p$ distance. Unlike prior results, our guarantees hold for all $p \ge 1$ and require only a finite-moment assumption on $\mu$, without compact-support, manifold, or smooth-density conditions. Specifically, given $n$ i.i.d.\ samples from $\mu$ with finite $q$-th moment and appropriately chosen network architectures, hyperparameters, and discretization schemes, we show that the expected Wasserstein-$p$ error between the learned distribution $\hat{\mu}$ and $\mu$ scales as $\mathbb{E}\, \mathbb{W}_p(\hat{\mu},\mu) = \widetilde{O}\!\left(n^{-1 / d^\ast_{p,q}(\mu)}\right),$ where $d^\ast_{p,q}(\mu)$ is the $(p,q)$-Wasserstein dimension of $\mu$. Our results demonstrate that diffusion models naturally adapt to the intrinsic geometry of data and mitigate the curse of dimensionality, since the convergence rate depends on $d^\ast_{p,q}(\mu)$ rather than the ambient dimension. Moreover, our theory conceptually bridges the analysis of diffusion models with that of GANs and the sharp minimax rates established in optimal transport. The proposed $(p,q)$-Wasserstein dimension also extends classical Wasserstein dimension notions to distributions with unbounded support, which may be of independent theoretical interest.

arXiv:2505.19371v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Top-$k$ decoding is a widely used method for sampling from LLMs: at each token, only the largest $k$ next-token-probabilities are kept, and the next token is sampled after re-normalizing them to sum to unity. Top-$k$ and other sampling methods are motivated by the intuition that true next-token distributions are sparse, and the noisy LLM probabilities need to be truncated. However, to our knowledge, a precise theoretical motivation for the use of top-$k$ decoding is missing. In this work, we develop a theoretical framework that both explains and generalizes top-$k$ decoding. We view decoding at a fixed token as the recovery of a sparse probability distribution. We consider \emph{Bregman decoders} obtained by minimizing a separable Bregman divergence (for both the \emph{primal} and \emph{dual} cases) with a sparsity-inducing $\ell_0$ regularization. Despite the combinatorial nature of the objective, we show how to optimize it efficiently for a large class of divergences. We show that the optimal decoding strategies are greedy, and further that the loss function is discretely convex in $k$, so that binary search provably and efficiently finds the optimal $k$. We show that top-$k$ decoding arises as a special case for the KL divergence, and identify new decoding strategies that have distinct behaviors (e.g., non-linearly up-weighting larger probabilities after re-normalization).

arXiv:2601.15500v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In recent years, Rectified flow (RF) has gained considerable popularity largely due to its generation efficiency and state-of-the-art performance. In this paper, we investigate the degree to which RF automatically adapts to the intrinsic low dimensionality of the support of the target distribution to accelerate sampling. We show that, using a carefully designed choice of the time-discretization scheme and with sufficiently accurate drift estimates, the RF sampler enjoys an iteration complexity of order $O(k/\varepsilon)$ (up to log factors), where $\varepsilon$ is the precision in total variation distance and $k$ is the intrinsic dimension of the target distribution. In addition, we show that the denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) procedure is equivalent to a stochastic version of RF by establishing a novel connection between these processes and stochastic localization. Building on this connection, we further design a stochastic RF sampler that also adapts to the low-dimensionality of the target distribution under milder requirements on the accuracy of the drift estimates, and also with a specific time schedule. We illustrate with simulations on the synthetic data and text-to-image data experiments the improved performance of the proposed samplers implementing the newly designed time-discretization schedules.

arXiv:2602.14587v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Many real-world control problems, ranging from finance to robotics, evolve in continuous time with non-uniform, event-driven decisions. Standard discrete-time reinforcement learning (RL), based on fixed-step Bellman updates, struggles in this setting: as time gaps shrink, the $Q$-function collapses to the value function $V$, eliminating action ranking. Existing continuous-time methods reintroduce action information via an advantage-rate function $q$. However, they enforce optimality through complicated martingale losses or orthogonality constraints, which are sensitive to the choice of test processes. These approaches entangle $V$ and $q$ into a large, complex optimization problem that is difficult to train reliably. To address these limitations, we propose a novel decoupled continuous-time actor-critic algorithm with alternating updates: $q$ is learned from diffusion generators on $V$, and $V$ is updated via a Hamiltonian-based value flow that remains informative under infinitesimal time steps, where standard max/softmax backups fail. Theoretically, we prove rigorous convergence via new probabilistic arguments, sidestepping the challenge that generator-based Hamiltonians lack Bellman-style contraction under the sup-norm. Empirically, our method outperforms prior continuous-time and leading discrete-time baselines across challenging continuous-control benchmarks and a real-world trading task, achieving 21% profit over a single quarter$-$nearly doubling the second-best method.

arXiv:2505.11771v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Transfer learning has become a central paradigm in modern machine learning, yet it suffers from the long-standing problem of negative transfer, where leveraging source representations can harm rather than help performance on the target task. Although empirical remedies have been proposed, there remains little theoretical understanding of how to reliably avoid negative transfer. In this paper, we investigate a simple yet remarkably effective strategy: augmenting frozen, pretrained source-side features with a trainable target-side encoder that adapts target features to capture residual signals overlooked by models pretrained on the source data. We show this residual feature integration strategy is sufficient to provably prevent negative transfer, by establishing theoretical guarantees that it has no worse convergence rate than training from scratch under the informative class of target distributions up to logarithmic factors, and that the convergence rate can transition seamlessly from nonparametric to near-parametric when source representations are informative. To our knowledge, this is the first theoretical work that ensures protection against negative transfer. We carry out extensive numerical experiments across image, text and tabular benchmarks, and empirically verify that the method consistently safeguards performance under distribution shift, label noise, semantic perturbation, and class imbalance. We additionally demonstrate that this residual integration mechanism uniquely supports adapt-time multimodality extension, enabling a pretrained single-cell foundation model to incorporate spatial signals for lymph-node anatomical classification despite the source model being trained without them. Our study thus advances the theory of safe transfer learning, and provides a principled approach that is simple, robust, architecture-agnostic, and broadly applicable.

arXiv:2509.22794v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study instrumental variable regression (IVaR) under differential privacy constraints. Classical IVaR methods (like two-stage least squares regression) rely on solving moment equations that directly use sensitive covariates and instruments, creating significant risks of privacy leakage and posing challenges in designing algorithms that are both statistically efficient and differentially private. We propose a noisy two-stage gradient descent algorithm that ensures $\rho$-zero-concentrated differential privacy by injecting carefully calibrated noise into the gradient updates. Our analysis establishes finite-sample convergence rates for the proposed method, showing that the algorithm achieves consistency while preserving privacy. In particular, we derive precise bounds quantifying the trade-off among optimization, privacy, and sampling error. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to provide both privacy guarantees and provable convergence rates for instrumental variable regression in linear models. We further validate our theoretical findings with experiments on both synthetic and real datasets, demonstrating that our method offers practical accuracy-privacy trade-offs.

arXiv:2510.04455v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Data-driven inverse optimization for mixed-integer linear programs (MILPs), which seeks to learn an objective function and constraints consistent with observed decisions, is important for building accurate mathematical models in a variety of domains, including power systems and scheduling. However, to the best of our knowledge, existing data-driven inverse optimization methods primarily focus on learning objective functions under known constraints, and learning both objective functions and constraints from data remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose a two-stage approach for a class of inverse optimization problems in which the objective is a linear combination of given feature functions and the constraints are parameterized by unknown functions and thresholds. Our method first learns the constraints and then, conditioned on the learned constraints, estimates the objective-function weights. On the theoretical side, we provide finite-sample guarantees for solving the proposed inverse optimization problem. To this end, we develop statistical learning tools for pseudo-metric spaces under sub-Gaussian assumptions and use them to derive a learning-theoretic framework for inverse optimization with both unknown objectives and constraints. On the experimental side, we demonstrate that our method successfully solves inverse optimization problems on scheduling instances formulated as ILPs with up to 100 decision variables.