arXiv:2605.23981v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Generative AI research increasingly confronts a shared problem: systems must sustain yet govern their own generative activity when uncertainty is high, evidence is missing, or context is insufficient. This position paper argues that metacognition should become the scientific framework for bounded and effective self governance in generative AI, where output generation is properly evaluated together with the capacities through which generative systems navigate and regulate their own activity. We advance this position by showing that bounded and effective AI self-governance requires metacognitive alignment across computational, algorithmic, and ecological levels. At the computational level, metacognition specifies the meta-level functions a system is meant to serve, such as monitoring, evaluation, control, and adaptation. At the algorithmic level, these functions are realized through procedures such as elicitation, iteration, and modularization. At the ecological level, metacognitive signals become meaningful, actionable, and accountable within the interface, workflow, and accountability arrangements. Metacognition thus makes it possible to conceive generative AI as both capable and well-governed, rather than treating capability and governance as competing aims.

arXiv:2410.19412v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Agent-Based Model (ABM) validation is crucial as it helps ensuring the reliability of simulations, and causal discovery has become a powerful tool in this context. However, current causal discovery methods often face accuracy and robustness challenges when applied to complex and noisy time series data, which is typical in ABM scenarios. This study addresses these issues by proposing a Robust Cross-Validation (RCV) approach to enhance causal structure learning for ABM validation. We develop RCV-VarLiNGAM and RCV-PCMCI, novel extensions of two prominent causal discovery algorithms. These aim to reduce the impact of noise better and give more reliable causal relation results, even with high-dimensional, time-dependent data. The proposed approach is then integrated into an enhanced ABM validation framework, which is designed to handle diverse data and model structures. The approach is evaluated using synthetic datasets and a complex simulated fMRI dataset. The results demonstrate greater reliability in causal structure identification. The study examines how various characteristics of datasets affect the performance of established causal discovery methods. These characteristics include linearity, noise distribution, stationarity, and causal structure density. This analysis is then extended to the RCV method to see how it compares in these different situations. This examination helps confirm whether the results are consistent with existing literature and also reveals the strengths and weaknesses of the novel approaches. By tackling key methodological challenges, the study aims to enhance ABM validation with a more resilient valuation framework presented. These improvements increase the reliability of model-driven decision making processes in complex systems analysis.

arXiv:2410.19412v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Time series causal discovery is essential for understanding dynamic systems, yet many existing methods remain sensitive to noise, non-stationarity, and sampling variability. We propose the Validated Consensus-Driven Framework (VCDF), a simple and method-agnostic layer that improves robustness by evaluating the stability of causal relations across blocked temporal subsets. VCDF requires no modification to base algorithms and can be applied to methods such as VAR-LiNGAM and PCMCI. Experiments on synthetic datasets show that VCDF improves VAR-LiNGAM by approximately 0.08-0.12 in both window and summary F1 scores across diverse data characteristics, with gains most pronounced for moderate-to-long sequences. The framework also benefits from longer sequences, yielding up to 0.18 absolute improvement on time series of length 1000 and above. Evaluations on simulated fMRI data and IT-monitoring scenarios further demonstrate enhanced stability and structural accuracy under realistic noise conditions. VCDF provides an effective reliability layer for time series causal discovery without altering underlying modeling assumptions.