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Hypothesis Generation and Inductive Inference in Children and Language Models

arXiv:2605.24528v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Real world decision-making requires constructing mental models under uncertainty over evidence, over the underlying causal rules, and over the state of the world itself. Which computational principles underpin human inference under such conditions, and do LLM-based agents exhibit similar behavior given matching constraints? We address these questions using an inductive inference Box Task in which participants, human children and LLM-based agents, infer a latent cause through sequential interaction with an uncertain environment. We formalize this task as program induction with Bayesian particle-based inference, admitting two complementary interpretations: (1) as a constraint satisfaction process over hypotheses, and (2) as a program synthesis problem in which hypotheses are executable programs evaluated against evidence. Using the constraint-based formulation, we show that children's behavior is best explained by a combination of subjective evidence reliability and online hypothesis generation, accounting for both their evidence-seeking patterns and their dissociation between task completion and rule generalization. Using the program synthesis formulation, we treat LLM-based agents as model organisms: controllable systems that allow systematic manipulation of task conditions. Across backends, LLM-based agents replicate children's responses to changes in evidence reliability and observability, including discounting unreliable evidence, seeking to resolve partial information, and dissociating between task completion and causal generalization. At the same time, LLM-based agents tend to over-observe and over-comply with instructions relative to children. These results suggest that while children and LLM-based agents adapt similarly to environmental structure, their information-seeking behavior exhibits distinct underlying costs and inductive biases.

Online library learning in human visual puzzle solving

arXiv:2603.23244v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: When learning a novel complex task, people often form efficient reusable abstractions that simplify future work, despite uncertainty about the future. We study this process in a visual puzzle task where participants define and reuse helpers -- intermediate constructions that capture repeating structure. In an online experiment, participants solved puzzles of increasing difficulty. Early on, they created many helpers, favouring completeness over efficiency. With experience, helper use became more selective and efficient, reflecting sensitivity to reuse and cost. Access to helpers enabled participants to solve puzzles that were otherwise difficult or impossible. Computational modelling shows that human decision times and number of operations used to complete a puzzle increase with search space estimated by a program induction model with library learning. In contrast, raw program length predicts failure but not effort. Together, these results point to online library learning as a core mechanism in human problem solving, allowing people to flexibly build, refine, and reuse abstractions as task demands grow.
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