arXiv:2603.06612v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Pass@k and other methods of scaling inference compute can improve language model performance in domains with external verifiers, including mathematics and code, where incorrect candidates can be filtered reliably. This raises a natural question: can we similarly scale compute to elicit gains in truthfulness for domains without convenient verification? We show that across five benchmarks and models, surprisingly, it cannot. Even at 25x the inference cost of naive sampling, polling-style aggregation yields no consistent accuracy gains over single-sample baselines and often amplifies shared misconceptions. We find that under uncertainty, models are better at predicting what other models will say within model ensembles than at identifying what is true, revealing a separation between social prediction and truth verification. Across models and benchmarks, aggregation fails to provide a robust truth signal because language model errors are strongly correlated. The source of correlation goes beyond any individual benchmark: we show that even when conditioned on out of distribution random strings and asked to produce pseudo-random outputs, different models produce correlated outputs. Confidence-based weighting provides no benefit because self-reported confidence fails to reliably distinguish correct from incorrect answers. These results delineate a boundary for inference-time scaling: in verified domains, additional samples provide more candidates for a verifier to filter; in unverified domains, additional samples merely reinforce shared misconceptions.

arXiv:2602.14338v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reinforcement learning (RL) plays a central role in large language model (LLM) post-training. Among existing approaches, Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) is widely used, especially for RL with verifiable rewards (RLVR) fine-tuning. In GRPO, each query prompts the LLM to generate a group of rollouts with a fixed group size $N$. When all rollouts in a group share the same outcome, either all correct or all incorrect, the group-normalized advantages become zero, yielding no gradient signal and wasting fine-tuning compute. We introduce Adaptive Efficient Rollout Optimization (AERO), an enhancement of GRPO. AERO uses an adaptive rollout strategy, applies selective rejection to strategically prune rollouts, and maintains a Bayesian posterior to prevent zero-advantage dead zones. Across three model configurations (Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B, Qwen2.5-7B, and Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct), AERO improves compute efficiency without sacrificing performance. Under the same total rollout budget, AERO reduces total training compute by about 48% while shortening wall-clock time per step by about 45% on average. Despite the substantial reduction in compute, AERO matches or improves Pass@8 and Avg@8 over GRPO, demonstrating a practical, scalable, and compute-efficient strategy for RL-based LLM alignment.