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Enhancing AI-Based Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting via Systematic Bias Correction

arXiv:2603.22314v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose severe threats to life, infrastructure, and economies in tropical and subtropical regions, underscoring the critical need for accurate and timely forecasts of both track and intensity. Recent advances in AI-based weather forecasting have shown promise in improving TC track forecasts. However, these systems are typically trained on coarse-resolution reanalysis data (e.g., ERA5 at 0.25 degree), which constrains predicted TC positions to a fixed grid and introduces significant discretization errors. Moreover, intensity forecasting remains limited especially for strong TCs by the smoothing effect of coarse meteorological fields and the use of regression losses that bias predictions toward conditional means. To address these limitations, we propose BaguanCyclone, a novel, unified framework that integrates two key innovations: (1) a probabilistic center refinement module that models the continuous spatial distribution of TC centers, enabling finer track precision; and (2) a region-aware intensity forecasting module that leverages high-resolution internal representations within dynamically defined sub-grid zones around the TC core to better capture localized extremes. Evaluated on the global IBTrACS dataset across six major TC basins, our system consistently outperforms both operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and most AI-based baselines, delivering a substantial enhancement in forecast accuracy. Remarkably, BaguanCyclone excels in navigating meteorological complexities, consistently delivering accurate forecasts for re-intensification, sweeping arcs, twin cyclones, and meandering events. Our code is available at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/Baguan-cyclone.

LagMemo: Language 3D Gaussian Splatting Memory for Multi-modal Open-vocabulary Multi-goal Visual Navigation

arXiv:2510.24118v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Navigating to a designated goal using visual information is a fundamental capability for intelligent robots. To address the practical demands of multi-modal, open-vocabulary goal queries and multi-goal visual navigation, we propose LagMemo, a navigation system that leverages a language 3D Gaussian Splatting memory. During a one-time exploration, LagMemo constructs a unified 3D language memory with robust spatial-semantic correlations. With incoming task goals, the system efficiently queries the memory, predicts candidate goal locations, and integrates a local perception-based verification mechanism to dynamically match and validate goals. For fair and rigorous evaluation, we curate GOAT-Core, a high-quality core split distilled from GOAT-Bench. Experimental results show that LagMemo's memory module enables effective multi-modal open-vocabulary localization, and significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in multi-goal visual navigation. Project page: https://weekgoodday.github.io/lagmemo
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