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KairosAgent: Agentic Time Series Forecasting with Fused Semantic Reasoning

arXiv:2605.30002v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Cross-domain multimodal time series forecasting is a challenging task, requiring models to integrate precise numerical comprehension, cross-domain semantic understanding, and effective multimodal fusion. Existing approaches either build Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) from scratch or leverage pretrained Large Language Models (LLMs). However, TSFMs often overlook semantic understanding and lack the ability to perform future-oriented semantic reasoning, and LLMs struggle with numerical comprehension and accurate quantitative forecasting. To overcome these limitations, we propose KairosAgent, a novel agentic framework for multimodal time series forecasting, including an LLM-based reasoner and a TSFM-based forecaster. KairosAgent unifies textual reasoning and numerical forecasting by dynamically invoking analytical tools to enhance the numerical understanding and semantic reasoning capabilities of LLMs. The reasoning results are subsequently fused into the TSFM pipeline, enabling more accurate and reliable future predictions. To further improve the reasoning, we curate a large-scale corpus of high-quality trajectories, alongside a reinforcement learning from forecasting paradigm with multi-turn refinement and turn-level credit assignment. Experiments demonstrate that KairosAgent achieves superior zero-shot forecasting performance while maximizing the utility of pretrained LLMs and TSFMs, presenting a promising direction for efficient and interpretable time series agents. The project page is at https://foundation-model-research.github.io/KairosAgent .

VLA-Precision: Asymmetric Co-Bootstrapping for Efficient Real-World Online RL of Vision-Language-Action Models

arXiv:2609.04355v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Pretrained vision-language-action (VLA) models enable broad manipulation but remain unreliable in tasks demanding precision and repeatability. Applying real-world online reinforcement learning (RL) to VLA post-training enables autonomous trial-and-error improvement beyond demonstrations alone, but exposes two bottlenecks: 1) unreliable value signals can induce policy drift; 2) large-VLA overhead constrains throughput and sample efficiency. To address these challenges, we present VLA-Precision, an efficient real-world online RL framework featuring the Asymmetric Co-Bootstrapping (ACoB) algorithm and the ACoB-Stream architecture. Specifically, ACoB establishes asymmetric co-bootstrapping across timescales: early intervention-guided behavioral learning rapidly improves policy performance while enhancing online experience quality. As autonomous experience accumulates, global return propagation and local preference ranking progressively calibrate value estimates, yielding relative action advantages for reference-regularized policy improvement while suppressing drift. To enable ACoB on large VLAs, we develop ACoB-Stream, a closed-loop experience--policy architecture that establishes invariant-state decoupling and on-demand streaming as design principles, delivering up to 10.9$\times$ improvements in throughput and computational efficiency. Extensive evaluations on nine high-precision chemistry tasks across four categories and four robot embodiments show that VLA-Precision achieves 98.3\% mean success rate in 45.8 min/task, with 27.6 s episodes running at 1.2$\times$ and 1.8$\times$ the speeds of VLA and RL baselines. Resources are available at https://vla-precision.github.io.

MASPOB: Bandit-Based Prompt Optimization for Multi-Agent Systems with Graph Neural Networks

arXiv:2603.02630v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved great success in many real-world applications, especially the one serving as the cognitive backbone of Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) to orchestrate complex workflows in practice. Since many deployment scenarios preclude MAS workflow modifications and its performance is highly sensitive to the input prompts, prompt optimization emerges as a more natural approach to improve its performance. However, real-world prompt optimization for MAS is impeded by three key challenges: (1) the need of sample efficiency due to prohibitive evaluation costs, (2) topology-induced coupling among prompts, and (3) the combinatorial explosion of the search space. To address these challenges, we introduce MASPOB (Multi-Agent System Prompt Optimization via Bandits), a novel sample-efficient framework based on bandits. By leveraging Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) to quantify uncertainty, the bandit framework balances exploration and exploitation, maximizing gains within a strictly limited budget. To handle topology-induced coupling, MASPOB integrates Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to capture structural priors, learning topology-aware representations of prompt semantics. Furthermore, it employs coordinate ascent to decompose the optimization into univariate sub-problems, reducing search complexity from exponential to linear. Extensive experiments across diverse benchmarks demonstrate that MASPOB achieves state-of-the-art performance, consistently outperforming existing baselines.

ALOE: Action-Level Off-Policy Evaluation for Vision-Language-Action Model Post-Training

arXiv:2602.12691v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study how to improve large foundation vision-language-action (VLA) systems through online reinforcement learning (RL) in real-world settings. Central to this process is the value function, which provides learning signals to guide VLA learning from experience. In practice, the value function is estimated from trajectory fragments collected from different data sources, including historical policies and intermittent human interventions. Estimating the value function of current behavior quality from the mixture data is inherently an off-policy evaluation problem. However, prior work often adopts conservative on-policy estimation for stability, which avoids direct evaluation of the current high-capacity policy and limits learning effectiveness. In this paper, we propose ALOE, an action-level off-policy evaluation framework for VLA post-training. ALOE applies chunking-based temporal-difference bootstrapping to evaluate individual action sequences instead of predicting final task outcomes. This design improves effective credit assignment to critical action chunks under sparse rewards and supports stable policy improvement. We evaluate our method on three real-world manipulation tasks, including smartphone packing as a high-precision task, laundry folding as a long-horizon deformable-object task, and bimanual pick-and-place involving multi-object perception. Across all tasks, ALOE improves learning efficiency without compromising execution speed, showing that off-policy RL can be reintroduced in a reliable manner for real-world VLA post-training. Videos and additional materials are available at our project website.
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