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From Accuracy to Auditability: A Survey of Determinism in Financial AI Systems

arXiv:2605.23955v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deploying machine learning in regulated financial environments -- credit risk, fraud detection, and anti-money laundering -- exposes critical vulnerabilities in algorithmic reproducibility. While early financial ML addressed statistical challenges such as backtest overfitting, deep neural networks and Generative AI have introduced mechanical nondeterminism rooted in hardware and architecture. This survey provides a systems perspective on reproducibility failures across three modalities now dominant in financial AI: tabular models (post-hoc explanation variance), graph networks (stochastic sampling and temporal asynchrony), and LLM-based agentic workflows (batch-dependent divergence and trajectory drift). We supplement the literature analysis with first-party experiments on public financial datasets -- quantifying explanation rank instability in credit scoring, prediction flip rates in GNN-based fraud detection, and tensor-parallel-induced output divergence in LLM entity extraction. We propose a layered evaluation framework linking modality-specific metrics (RBO, D_cos, TDI, PSD) to audit readiness, and empirically validate the complementarity of logit-level and semantic-level determinism measures.

A prior information informed learning architecture for flying trajectory prediction

arXiv:2603.06863v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Trajectory prediction for flying objects is critical in domains ranging from sports analytics to aerospace. However, traditional methods struggle with complex physical modeling, computational inefficiencies, and high hardware demands, often neglecting critical trajectory events like landing points. This paper introduces a novel, hardware-efficient trajectory prediction framework that integrates environmental priors with a Dual-Transformer-Cascaded (DTC) architecture. We demonstrate this approach by predicting the landing points of tennis balls in real-world outdoor courts. Using a single industrial camera and YOLO-based detection, we extract high-speed flight coordinates. These coordinates, fused with structural environmental priors (e.g., court boundaries), form a comprehensive dataset fed into our proposed DTC model. A first-level Transformer classifies the trajectory, while a second-level Transformer synthesizes these features to precisely predict the landing point. Extensive ablation and comparative experiments demonstrate that integrating environmental priors within the DTC architecture significantly outperforms existing trajectory prediction frameworks
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