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The Doctor Will (Still) See You Now: On the Structural Limits of Agentic AI in Healthcare

arXiv:2602.18460v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Across healthcare, agentic artificial intelligence (AI) systems are increasingly promoted as capable of autonomous action, yet in practice they currently operate under near-total human oversight due to safety, regulatory, and liability constraints that make autonomous clinical reasoning infeasible in high-stakes environments. While market enthusiasm suggests a revolution in healthcare agents, the conceptual assumptions and accountability structures shaping these systems remain underexamined. We present a qualitative study based on interviews with 20 stakeholders, including developers, implementers, and end users. Our analysis identifies three mutually reinforcing tensions: conceptual fragmentation regarding the definition of `agentic'; an autonomy contradiction where commercial promises exceed operational reality; and an evaluation blind spot that prioritizes technical benchmarks over sociotechnical safety. We argue that agentic {AI} functions as a site of contested meaning-making where technical aspirations, commercial incentives, and clinical constraints intersect, carrying material consequences for patient safety and the distribution of blame.

Zono-Conformal Prediction: Zonotope-Based Uncertainty Quantification for Regression and Classification Tasks

arXiv:2508.11025v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal prediction is a popular uncertainty quantification method that augments a base predictor to return sets of predictions with statistically valid coverage guarantees. However, current methods are often computationally expensive and data-intensive, as they require constructing an uncertainty model before calibration. Moreover, existing approaches typically represent the prediction sets with intervals, which limits their ability to capture dependencies in multi-dimensional outputs. We address these limitations by introducing zono-conformal prediction, a novel approach inspired by interval predictor models and reachset-conformant identification that constructs prediction zonotopes with assured coverage. By placing zonotopic uncertainty sets directly into the model of the base predictor, zono-conformal predictors can be identified via a single, data-efficient linear program. While we can apply zono-conformal prediction to arbitrary nonlinear base predictors, we focus on feed-forward neural networks in this work. Aside from regression tasks, we also construct optimal zono-conformal predictors in classification settings where the output of an uncertain predictor is a set of possible classes. We provide probabilistic coverage guarantees and present methods for detecting outliers in the identification data. In extensive numerical experiments, we show that zono-conformal predictors are less conservative than interval predictor models and standard conformal prediction methods, while achieving a similar coverage over the test data.
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