arXiv:2603.03555v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: MoltBook is a large-scale multi-agent coordination environment where over 770,000 autonomous LLM agents interact without human participation, offering the first opportunity we are aware of to observe emergent multi-agent coordination dynamics at this population scale. We introduce \textit{Molt Dynamics}: the emergent agent coordination behaviors, inter-agent communication dynamics, and role specialization patterns arising when autonomous agents operate as decentralized decision-makers in an unconstrained multi-agent environment. Through longitudinal observation of 90,704 active agents over three weeks, we characterize three aspects. First, spontaneous role specialization: network-based clustering reveals six structural roles (silhouette 0.91), though the result primarily reflects core-periphery organization -- 93.5\% of agents occupy a homogeneous peripheral cluster, with meaningful differentiation confined to the active minority. Second, decentralized information dissemination: cascade analysis of 10,323 inter-agent propagation events reveals power-law distributed cascade sizes ($\alpha = 2.57 \pm 0.02$) and saturating adoption dynamics where adoption probability shows diminishing returns with repeated exposures (Cox hazard ratio 0.53, concordance 0.78). Third, distributed cooperative task resolution: 164 multi-agent collaborative events show detectable coordination patterns, but success rates are low (6.7\%, $p = 0.057$) and cooperative outcomes are significantly worse than a matched single-agent baseline (Cohen's $d = -0.88$), indicating emergent cooperative behavior is nascent. These findings establish an empirical baseline for coordination dynamics in decentralized autonomous agent systems, with implications for multi-agent system design, agent communication protocol engineering, and AI safety.

arXiv:2603.03701v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In the vision of smart cities, technologies are being developed to enhance the efficiency of urban services and improve residents' quality of life. However, most existing research focuses on optimizing individual services in isolation, without adequately considering reciprocal interactions among heterogeneous urban services that could yield higher efficiency and improved resource utilization. For example, human couriers could collect traffic and air quality data along their delivery routes, while sensing robots could assist with on-demand delivery during peak hours, enhancing both sensing coverage and delivery efficiency. However, the joint optimization of different urban services is challenging due to potentially conflicting objectives and the need for real-time coordination in dynamic environments. In this paper, we propose UrbanHuRo, a two-layer human-robot collaboration framework for joint optimization of heterogeneous urban services, demonstrated through crowdsourced delivery and urban sensing. UrbanHuRo includes two key designs: (i) a scalable distributed MapReduce-based K-submodular maximization module for efficient order dispatch, and (ii) a deep submodular reward reinforcement learning algorithm for sensing route planning. Experimental evaluations on real-world datasets from a food delivery platform demonstrate that UrbanHuRo improves sensing coverage by 29.7% and courier income by 39.2% on average in most settings, while also significantly reducing the number of overdue orders.

arXiv:2603.02640v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Online platforms increasingly rely on opinion aggregation to allocate real-world attention and resources, yet common signals such as engagement votes or capital-weighted commitments are easy to amplify and often track visibility rather than reliability. This makes collective judgments brittle under weak truth signals, noisy or delayed feedback, early popularity surges, and strategic manipulation. We propose Credibility Governance (CG), a mechanism that reallocates influence by learning which agents and viewpoints consistently track evolving public evidence. CG maintains dynamic credibility scores for both agents and opinions, updates opinion influence via credibility-weighted endorsements, and updates agent credibility based on the long-run performance of the opinions they support, rewarding early and persistent alignment with emerging evidence while filtering short-lived noise. We evaluate CG in POLIS, a socio-physical simulation environment that models coupled belief dynamics and downstream feedback under uncertainty. Across settings with initial majority misalignment, observation noise and contamination, and misinformation shocks, CG outperforms vote-based, stake-weighted, and no-governance baselines, yielding faster recovery to the true state, reduced lock-in and path dependence, and improved robustness under adversarial pressure. Our implementation and experimental scripts are publicly available at https://github.com/Wanying-He/Credibility_Governance.

arXiv:2403.07183v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We present an approach for estimating the fraction of text in a large corpus which is likely to be substantially modified or produced by a large language model (LLM). Our maximum likelihood model leverages expert-written and AI-generated reference texts to accurately and efficiently examine real-world LLM-use at the corpus level. We apply this approach to a case study of scientific peer review in AI conferences that took place after the release of ChatGPT: ICLR 2024, NeurIPS 2023, CoRL 2023 and EMNLP 2023. Our results suggest that between 6.5% and 16.9% of text submitted as peer reviews to these conferences could have been substantially modified by LLMs, i.e. beyond spell-checking or minor writing updates. The circumstances in which generated text occurs offer insight into user behavior: the estimated fraction of LLM-generated text is higher in reviews which report lower confidence, were submitted close to the deadline, and from reviewers who are less likely to respond to author rebuttals. We also observe corpus-level trends in generated text which may be too subtle to detect at the individual level, and discuss the implications of such trends on peer review. We call for future interdisciplinary work to examine how LLM use is changing our information and knowledge practices.

arXiv:2602.18824v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present UniRank, a multi-agent LLM pipeline that estimates university positions across global ranking systems using only publicly available bibliometric data from OpenAlex and Semantic Scholar. The system employs a three-stage architecture: (a) zero-shot estimation from anonymized institutional metrics, (b) per-system tool-augmented calibration against real ranked universities, and (c) final synthesis. Critically, institutions are anonymized -- names, countries, DOIs, paper titles, and collaboration countries are all redacted -- and their actual ranks are hidden from the calibration tools during evaluation, preventing LLM memorization from confounding results. On the Times Higher Education (THE) World University Rankings ($n=352$), the system achieves MAE = 251.5 rank positions, Median AE = 131.5, PNMAE = 12.03%, Spearman $\rho = 0.769$, Kendall $\tau = 0.591$, hit rate @50 = 20.7%, hit rate @100 = 39.8%, and a Memorization Index of exactly zero (no exact-match zero-width predictions among all 352 universities). The systematic positive-signed error (+190.1 positions, indicating the system consistently predicts worse ranks than actual) and monotonic performance degradation from elite tier (MAE = 60.5, hit@100 = 90.5%) to tail tier (MAE = 328.2, hit@100 = 20.8%) provide strong evidence that the pipeline performs genuine analytical reasoning rather than recalling memorized rankings. A live demo is available at https://unirank.scinito.ai .

arXiv:2602.18832v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Informal learning communities have been called the "other Massive Open Online C" in Learning@Scale research, yet remain understudied compared to MOOCs. We present the first empirical study of a large-scale informal learning community composed entirely of AI agents. Moltbook, a social network exclusively for AI agents powered by autonomous agent frameworks such as OpenClaw, grew to over 2.8 million registered agents in three weeks. Analyzing 231,080 non-spam posts across three phases of community evolution, we find three key patterns. First, participation inequality is extreme from the start (comment Gini = 0.889), exceeding human community benchmarks. Second, AI agents exhibit a "broadcasting inversion": statement-to-question ratios of 8.9:1 to 9.7:1 contrast sharply with the question-driven dynamics of human learning communities, and comment-level analysis of 1.55 million comments reveals a "parallel monologue" pattern where 93% of comments are independent responses rather than threaded dialogue. Third, we document a characteristic engagement lifecycle: explosive initial growth (184K posts from 32K authors in 11 days), a spam crisis (57,093 posts deleted by the platform), and engagement decline (mean comments: 31.7 -> 8.3 -> 1.7) that had not reversed by the end of our observation window despite effective spam removal. Sentiment analysis reveals a selection effect: comment tone becomes more positive as engagement declines, suggesting that casual participants disengage first while committed contributors remain. These findings have direct implications for hybrid human-AI learning platforms.

arXiv:2510.14889v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: On social media, several individuals experiencing suicidal ideation (SI) do not disclose their distress explicitly. Instead, signs may surface indirectly through everyday posts or peer interactions. Detecting such implicit signals early is critical but remains challenging. We frame early and implicit SI as a forward-looking prediction task and develop a computational framework that models a user's information environment, consisting of both their longitudinal posting histories as well as the discourse of their socially proximal peers. We adopted a composite network centrality measure to identify top neighbors of a user, and temporally aligned the user's and neighbors' interactions -- integrating the multi-layered signals in a fine-tuned DeBERTa-v3 model. In a Reddit study of 1,000 (500 Case and 500 Control) users, our approach improves early and implicit SI detection by an average of 10% over all other baselines. These findings highlight that peer interactions offer valuable predictive signals and carry broader implications for designing early detection systems that capture indirect as well as masked expressions of risk in online environments.

arXiv:2602.13033v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) represent a new frontier of digital infrastructure that can support a wide range of public-sector applications, from general purpose citizen services to specialized and sensitive state functions. When expanding AI access, governments face a set of strategic choices over whether to buy existing services, build domestic capabilities, or adopt hybrid approaches across different domains and use cases. These are critical decisions especially when leading model providers are often foreign corporations, and LLM outputs are increasingly treated as trusted inputs to public decision-making and public discourse. In practice, these decisions are not intended to mandate a single approach across all domains; instead, national AI strategies are typically pluralistic, with sovereign, commercial and open-source models coexisting to serve different purposes. Governments may rely on commercial models for non-sensitive or commodity tasks, while pursuing greater control for critical, high-risk or strategically important applications. This paper provides a strategic framework for making this decision by evaluating these options across dimensions including sovereignty, safety, cost, resource capability, cultural fit, and sustainability. Importantly, "building" does not imply that governments must act alone: domestic capabilities may be developed through public research institutions, universities, state-owned enterprises, joint ventures, or broader national ecosystems. By detailing the technical requirements and practical challenges of each pathway, this work aims to serve as a reference for policy-makers to determine whether a buy or build approach best aligns with their specific national needs and societal goals.

arXiv:2602.13458v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large-scale communities of AI agents are becoming increasingly prevalent, creating new environments for agent-agent social interaction. Prior work has examined multi-agent behavior primarily in controlled or small-scale settings, limiting our understanding of emergent social dynamics at scale. The recent emergence of MoltBook, a social networking platform designed explicitly for AI agents, presents a unique opportunity to study whether and how these interactions reproduce core human social mechanisms. We present MoltNet, a large-scale empirical analysis of agent interaction on MoltBook using data collected in early 2026. Grounded in sociological and social-psychological theory, we examine behavior along four dimensions: intent and motivation, norms and templates, incentives and behavioral drift, emotion and contagion. Our analysis revealed that agents strongly respond to social rewards and rapidly converge on community-specific interaction templates, resembling human patterns of incentive sensitivity and normative conformity. However, they are predominantly knowledge-driven rather than persona-aligned, and display limited emotional reciprocity along with weak dialogic engagement, which diverges systematically from human online communities. Together, these results reveal both similarities and differences between artificial and human social systems and provide an empirical foundation for understanding, designing, and governing large-scale agent communities.

arXiv:2602.13920v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent advances in agent-mediated systems have enabled a new paradigm of social network simulation, where AI agents interact with human-like autonomy. This evolution has fostered the emergence of agent-driven social networks such as Moltbook, a Reddit-like platform populated entirely by AI agents. Despite these developments, empirical comparisons between agent-driven and human-driven social networks remain scarce, limiting our understanding of how their network topologies might diverge. This paper presents the first comparative analysis of network topology on Moltbook, utilizing a comment network comprising 33,577 nodes and 697,688 edges. To provide a benchmark, we curated a parallel dataset from Reddit consisting of 7.8 million nodes and 51.8 million edges. We examine key structural differences between agent-drive and human-drive networks, specifically focusing on topological patterns and the edge formation efficacy of their respective posts. Our findings provide a foundational profile of AI-driven social structures, serving as a preliminary step toward developing more robust and authentic agent-mediated social systems.

arXiv:2602.14043v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Social simulation is critical for mining complex social dynamics and supporting data-driven decision making. LLM-based methods have emerged as powerful tools for this task by leveraging human-like social questionnaire responses to model group behaviors. Existing LLM-based approaches predominantly focus on group-level values at discrete time points, treating them as static snapshots rather than dynamic processes. However, group-level values are not fixed but shaped by long-term social changes. Modeling their dynamics is thus crucial for accurate social evolution prediction--a key challenge in both data mining and social science. This problem remains underexplored due to limited longitudinal data, group heterogeneity, and intricate historical event impacts. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel framework for group-level dynamic social simulation by integrating historical value trajectories into LLM-based human response modeling. We select China and the U.S. as representative contexts, conducting stratified simulations across four core sociodemographic dimensions (gender, age, education, income). Using the World Values Survey, we construct a multi-wave, group-level longitudinal dataset to capture historical value evolution, and then propose the first event-based prediction method for this task, unifying social events, current value states, and group attributes into a single framework. Evaluations across five LLM families show substantial gains: a maximum 30.88\% improvement on seen questions and 33.97\% on unseen questions over the Vanilla baseline. We further find notable cross-group heterogeneity: U.S. groups are more volatile than Chinese groups, and younger groups in both countries are more sensitive to external changes. These findings advance LLM-based social simulation and provide new insights for social scientists to understand and predict social value changes.

arXiv:2602.14239v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting links in sparse, continuously evolving networks is a central challenge in network science. Conventional heuristic methods and deep learning models, including Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), are typically designed for static graphs and thus struggle to capture temporal dependencies. Snapshot-based techniques partially address this issue but often encounter data sparsity and class imbalance, particularly in networks with transient interactions such as telecommunication call detail records (CDRs). Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs) model dynamic graphs by updating node embeddings over time; however, their predictive accuracy under sparse conditions remains limited. In this study, we improve the TGN framework by extracting enclosing subgraphs around candidate links, enabling the model to jointly learn structural and temporal information. Experiments on a sparse CDR dataset show that our approach increases average precision by 2.6% over standard TGNs, demonstrating the advantages of integrating local topology for robust link prediction in dynamic networks.

arXiv:2602.14279v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Eliciting information to reduce uncertainty about latent group-level properties from surveys and other collective assessments requires allocating limited questioning effort under real costs and missing data. Although large language models enable adaptive, multi-turn interactions in natural language, most existing elicitation methods optimize what to ask with a fixed respondent pool, and do not adapt respondent selection or leverage population structure when responses are partial or incomplete. To address this gap, we study adaptive group elicitation, a multi-round setting where an agent adaptively selects both questions and respondents under explicit query and participation budgets. We propose a theoretically grounded framework that combines (i) an LLM-based expected information gain objective for scoring candidate questions with (ii) heterogeneous graph neural network propagation that aggregates observed responses and participant attributes to impute missing responses and guide per-round respondent selection. This closed-loop procedure queries a small, informative subset of individuals while inferring population-level responses via structured similarity. Across three real-world opinion datasets, our method consistently improves population-level response prediction under constrained budgets, including a >12% relative gain on CES at a 10% respondent budget.

arXiv:2602.14477v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Peer learning, where learners teach and learn from each other, is foundational to educational practice. A novel phenomenon has emerged: AI agents forming communities where they teach each other skills, share discoveries, and collaboratively build knowledge. This paper presents an educational data mining analysis of Moltbook, a large-scale community where over 2.4 million AI agents engage in peer learning, posting tutorials, answering questions, and sharing newly acquired skills. Analyzing 28,683 posts (after filtering automated spam) and 138 comment threads with statistical and qualitative methods, we find evidence of genuine peer learning behaviors: agents teach skills they built (74K comments on a skill tutorial), report discoveries, and engage in collaborative problem-solving. Qualitative comment analysis reveals a taxonomy of peer response patterns: validation (22%), knowledge extension (18%), application (12%), and metacognitive reflection (7%), with agents building on each others' frameworks across multiple languages. We characterize how AI peer learning differs from human peer learning: (1) teaching (statements) dramatically outperforms help-seeking (questions) with an 11.4:1 ratio; (2) learning-oriented content (procedural and conceptual) receives 3x more engagement than other content; (3) extreme participation inequality reveals non-human behavioral signatures. We derive six design principles for educational AI, including leveraging validation-before-extension patterns and supporting multilingual learning networks. Our work provides the first empirical characterization of peer learning among AI agents, contributing to EDM's understanding of how learning occurs in increasingly AI-populated educational environments.

arXiv:2511.01228v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Understanding and quantifying node importance is a fundamental problem in network science and engineering, underpinning a wide range of applications such as influence maximization, social recommendation, and network dismantling. Prior research often relies on centrality measures or advanced graph embedding techniques using structural information, followed by downstream classification or regression tasks to identify critical nodes. However, these approaches typically decouple node representation learning from the ranking objective and depend heavily on the topological structure of target networks, leading to feature-task inconsistency and poor cross-network generalization. This paper proposes a novel framework that leverages causal representation learning to obtain robust and invariant node embeddings for cross-network ranking tasks. Specifically, we introduce an influence-aware causal node embedding module within an autoencoder architecture to extract node embeddings that are causally related to node importance. Furthermore, we design a unified optimization framework incorporating a causal ranking loss that jointly optimizes reconstruction and ranking objectives, thereby enabling mutual reinforcement between node representation learning and ranking optimization. This design allows the proposed model to be trained on synthetic networks and to generalize effectively across diverse real-world networks. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in terms of both ranking accuracy and cross-network transferability, offering new insights for network analysis and engineering applications-particularly in scenarios where the target network's structure is inaccessible in advance due to privacy or security constraints.

arXiv:2601.15109v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The interoperability of data and intelligence across allied partners and their respective end-user groups is considered a foundational enabler of the collective defense capability -- both conventional and hybrid -- of NATO countries. Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) and related hybrid activities are conducted across various societal dimensions and infospheres, posing an ever greater challenge to threat characterization, sustained situational awareness, and response coordination. Recent advances in AI have further reduced the cost of AI-augmented trolling and interference activities, such as through the generation and amplification of manipulative content. Despite the introduction of the DISARM framework as a standardized metadata and analytical framework for FIMI, operationalizing it at the scale of social media remains a challenge. We propose a framework-agnostic, agent-based operationalization of DISARM to investigate FIMI on social media. We develop an agent coordination pipeline in which specialized agentic AI components collaboratively (1) detect candidate manipulative behaviors and (2) map these behaviors onto standard DISARM taxonomies in a transparent manner. We evaluate the approach on two real-world datasets annotated by domain practitioners. Our results show that the approach is effective in scaling the predominantly manual and heavily interpretive work of FIMI analysis -- including uncovering more than 30 previously undetected Russian bot accounts during manual analysis -- and provides a direct contribution to enhancing situational awareness and data interoperability in the context of operating in media- and information-rich settings.