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Predictive Value of Machine Learning for Poststroke Mortality Risk: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: People with stroke face a high mortality risk, and an accurate prediction model is essential to the guidance of clinical decision-making in this population. Recently, with growing attention paid to machine learning (ML) in stroke care, some researchers have investigated the effectiveness of ML in predicting the mortality risk in stroke. However, systematic evidence is still lacking for its effectiveness. Objective: This systematic review aims to evaluate the value of ML in predicting the stroke mortality risk. The findings are expected to offer an evidence-based basis for developing and assessing clinical risk prediction tools. Methods: A search was made in Cochrane Library, PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science up to June 23, 2025, and studies that reported a complete performance of ML in predicting stroke mortality were included. Studies with only risk factors analyzed were excluded. The risk of bias of the included studies was assessed using PROBAST (Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool). Pooled risk ratios with 95% CIs and prediction intervals (PIs) were derived using the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman method under a random-effects model. Subgroup analyses were also conducted by model type, stroke type, patient source, and treatment background. Moreover, a metaregression was conducted on the C-index for out-of-hospital mortality at different time points to explore the influence of time factors on the model’s predictive performance. Results: Sixty-eight studies were included (23 predicting in-hospital mortality and 45 predicting out-of-hospital mortality), describing the development of 75 prediction models and 43 external validations. The follow-up period was 1 month to 15 years. For predicting in-hospital mortality, the external validation set had a pooled C-index of 0.727 (95% CI 0.677-0.781, 95% PI 0.521-1.000), with sensitivity and specificity of 0.64 (95% CI 0.57-0.70) and 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.77), respectively. For predicting out-of-hospital mortality, the pooled C-index was 0.847 (95% CI 0.808-0.887, 95% PI 0.750-0.956) in the external validation set, with sensitivity and specificity of 0.71 (95% CI 0.55-0.82) and 0.76 (95% CI 0.74-0.78), respectively. Comparatively, the overall pooled C-indexes were 0.788 (95% CI 0.766-0.810, 95% PI 0.621-0.999) and 0.812 (95% CI 0.798-0.826, 95% PI 0.693-0.952), respectively. The metaregression revealed a gradual decline in the predictive performance of the overall model and logistic regression model alone, whereas a random forest model maintained sustained performance. Age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, and stroke-related complications were the most frequently used variables for modeling. Conclusions: This is the first meta-analysis to demonstrate that ML-based prediction of stroke mortality is feasible. The performance of ML supports its role as an auxiliary tool for identifying high-risk populations, thereby optimizing clinical monitoring and resource allocation. However, due to substantial heterogeneity and a relatively high risk of bias in available studies, caution is warranted in real-world application. The effectiveness of ML may vary across settings, and external validation is recommended before broader implementation. Trial Registration: PROSPERO CRD420251086321; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/view/CRD420251086321

FedRG: Unleashing the Representation Geometry for Federated Learning with Noisy Clients

arXiv:2603.19722v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Federated learning (FL) suffers from performance degradation due to the inevitable presence of noisy annotations in distributed scenarios. Existing approaches have advanced in distinguishing noisy samples from the dataset for label correction by leveraging loss values. However, noisy samples recognition relying on scalar loss lacks reliability for FL under heterogeneous scenarios. In this paper, we rethink this paradigm from a representation perspective and propose \method~(\textbf{Fed}erated under \textbf{R}epresentation \textbf{G}emometry), which follows \textbf{the principle of ``representation geometry priority''} to recognize noisy labels. Firstly, \method~creates label-agnostic spherical representations by using self-supervision. It then iteratively fits a spherical von Mises-Fisher (vMF) mixture model to this geometry using previously identified clean samples to capture semantic clusters. This geometric evidence is integrated with a semantic-label soft mapping mechanism to derive a distribution divergence between the label-free and annotated label-conditioned feature space, which robustly identifies noisy samples and updates the vMF mixture model with the newly separated clean dataset. Lastly, we employ an additional personalized noise absorption matrix on noisy labels to achieve robust optimization. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that \method~significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods for FL with data heterogeneity under diverse noisy clients scenarios.
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  • Utility Theory based Cognitive Modeling in the Application of Robotics: A Survey Qin Yang
    arXiv:2306.09445v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Cognitive modeling, which explores the essence of cognition, including motivation, emotion, and perception, has been widely applied in the artificial intelligence (AI) agent domains, such as robotics. From the computational perspective, various cognitive functionalities have been developed through utility theory to provide a detailed and process-based understanding for specifying corresponding computational models of representations, mec
     

Utility Theory based Cognitive Modeling in the Application of Robotics: A Survey

arXiv:2306.09445v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Cognitive modeling, which explores the essence of cognition, including motivation, emotion, and perception, has been widely applied in the artificial intelligence (AI) agent domains, such as robotics. From the computational perspective, various cognitive functionalities have been developed through utility theory to provide a detailed and process-based understanding for specifying corresponding computational models of representations, mechanisms, and processes. Especially for decision-making and learning in multi-agent/robot systems (MAS/MRS), a suitable cognitive model can guide agents in choosing reasonable strategies to achieve their current needs and learning to cooperate and organize their behaviors, optimizing the system's utility, building stable and reliable relationships, and guaranteeing each group member's sustainable development, similar to the human society. This survey examines existing robotic systems for developmental cognitive models in the context of utility theory. We discuss the evolution of cognitive modeling in robotics from behavior-based robotics (BBR) and cognitive architectures to the properties of value systems in robots, such as the studies on motivations as artificial value systems, and the utility theory based cognitive modeling for generating and updating strategies in robotic interactions. Then, we examine the extent to which existing value systems support the application of robotics from an AI agent cognitive modeling perspective, including single-agent and multi-agent systems, trust among agents, and human-robot interaction. Finally, we survey the existing literature of current value systems in relevant fields and propose several promising research directions, along with some open problems that we deem necessary for further investigation.
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