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From Accuracy to Auditability: A Survey of Determinism in Financial AI Systems

arXiv:2605.23955v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deploying machine learning in regulated financial environments -- credit risk, fraud detection, and anti-money laundering -- exposes critical vulnerabilities in algorithmic reproducibility. While early financial ML addressed statistical challenges such as backtest overfitting, deep neural networks and Generative AI have introduced mechanical nondeterminism rooted in hardware and architecture. This survey provides a systems perspective on reproducibility failures across three modalities now dominant in financial AI: tabular models (post-hoc explanation variance), graph networks (stochastic sampling and temporal asynchrony), and LLM-based agentic workflows (batch-dependent divergence and trajectory drift). We supplement the literature analysis with first-party experiments on public financial datasets -- quantifying explanation rank instability in credit scoring, prediction flip rates in GNN-based fraud detection, and tensor-parallel-induced output divergence in LLM entity extraction. We propose a layered evaluation framework linking modality-specific metrics (RBO, D_cos, TDI, PSD) to audit readiness, and empirically validate the complementarity of logit-level and semantic-level determinism measures.

Real-Time Aligned Reward Model beyond Semantics

arXiv:2601.22664v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) is a pivotal technique for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences, yet it is susceptible to reward overoptimization, in which policy models overfit to the reward model, exploit spurious reward patterns instead of faithfully capturing human intent. Prior mitigations primarily relies on surface semantic information and fails to efficiently address the misalignment between the reward model (RM) and the policy model caused by continuous policy distribution shifts. This inevitably leads to an increasing reward discrepancy, exacerbating reward overoptimization. To address these limitations, we introduce R2M (Real-Time Aligned Reward Model), a novel lightweight RLHF framework. R2M goes beyond vanilla reward models that solely depend on the semantic representations of a pretrained LLM. Instead, it leverages the evolving hidden states of the policy (namely policy feedback) to align with the real-time distribution shift of the policy during the RL process. This work points to a promising new direction for improving the performance of reward models through real-time utilization of feedback from policy models.

Does Your Reasoning Model Implicitly Know When to Stop Thinking?

arXiv:2602.08354v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Recent advancements in large reasoning models (LRMs) have greatly improved their capabilities on complex reasoning tasks through Long Chains of Thought (CoTs). However, this approach often results in substantial redundancy, impairing computational efficiency and causing significant delays in real-time applications. Recent studies show that longer reasoning chains are frequently uncorrelated with correctness and can even be detrimental to accuracy. In a further in-depth analysis of this phenomenon, we surprisingly uncover and empirically verify that LRMs implicitly know the appropriate time to stop thinking, while this capability is obscured by current sampling paradigms. Motivated by this, we introduce SAGE (Self-Aware Guided Efficient Reasoning), a novel sampling paradigm that unleashes this efficient reasoning potential. Furthermore, integrating SAGE as mixed sampling into group-based reinforcement learning (SAGE-RL) enables SAGE-RL to effectively incorporate SAGE-discovered efficient reasoning patterns into standard pass@1 inference, markedly enhancing both the reasoning accuracy and efficiency of LRMs across multiple challenging mathematical benchmarks.
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