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DropoutTS: Sample-Adaptive Dropout for Robust Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2601.21726v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Deep time series models are vulnerable to noisy data ubiquitous in real-world applications. Existing robustness strategies either prune data or rely on costly prior quantification, failing to balance effectiveness and efficiency. In this paper, we introduce DropoutTS, a model-agnostic plugin that shifts the paradigm from "what" to learn to "how much" to learn. DropoutTS employs a Sample-Adaptive Dropout mechanism: leveraging spectral sparsity to efficiently quantify instance-level noise via reconstruction residuals, it dynamically calibrates model learning capacity by mapping noise to adaptive dropout rates - selectively suppressing spurious fluctuations while preserving fine-grained fidelity. Extensive experiments across diverse noise regimes and open benchmarks show DropoutTS consistently boosts superior backbones' performance, delivering advanced robustness with negligible parameter overhead and no architectural modifications. Our code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/DropoutTS.

InsTraj: Instructing Diffusion Models with Travel Intentions to Generate Real-world Trajectories

arXiv:2604.04106v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The generation of realistic and controllable GPS trajectories is a fundamental task for applications in urban planning, mobility simulation, and privacy-preserving data sharing. However, existing methods face a two-fold challenge: they lack the deep semantic understanding to interpret complex user travel intent, and struggle to handle complex constraints while maintaining the realistic diversity inherent in human behavior. To resolve this, we introduce InsTraj, a novel framework that instructs diffusion models to generate high-fidelity trajectories directly from natural language descriptions. Specifically, InsTraj first utilizes a powerful large language model to decipher unstructured travel intentions formed in natural language, thereby creating rich semantic blueprints and bridging the representation gap between intentions and trajectories. Subsequently, we proposed a multimodal trajectory diffusion transformer that can integrate semantic guidance to generate high-fidelity and instruction-faithful trajectories that adhere to fine-grained user intent. Comprehensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that InsTraj significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in generating trajectories that are realistic, diverse, and semantically faithful to the input instructions.

Discrete Prototypical Memories for Federated Time Series Foundation Models

arXiv:2604.04475v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) as federated learning (FL)-based time series foundation models offers a promising way to transfer the generalization capabilities of LLMs to time series data while preserving access to private data. However, the semantic misalignment between time-series data and the text-centric latent space of existing LLMs often leads to degraded performance. Meanwhile, the parameter-sharing mechanism in existing FL methods model heterogeneous cross-domain time-series data into a unified continuous latent space, which contradicts the fact that time-series semantics frequently manifest as discrete and recurring regimes. To address these limitations, we propose \textsc{FeDPM}, a federated framework for time-series foundation models based on discrete prototypical memories. Specifically, we learn local prototypical memory priors for intra-domain time-series data. We then align cross-domain memories to promote a unified discrete latent space and introduce a domain-specific memory update mechanism to balance shared and personalized prototypical knowledge. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of \textsc{FeDPM}. The code is publicly available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/FedUnit-64D1.

ST-BiBench: Benchmarking Multi-Stream Multimodal Coordination in Bimanual Embodied Tasks for MLLMs

arXiv:2602.08392v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have significantly advanced the landscape of embodied AI, yet transitioning to synchronized bimanual coordination introduces formidable challenges in multi-stream multimodal integration. We introduce ST-BiBench, a comprehensive multi-tier framework for evaluating spatio-temporal multimodal coordination. Our approach centers on Strategic Coordination Planning, assessing high-level cross-modal reasoning over multiple action and perception streams. To investigate the "proximity paradox"-where semantically coherent plans fail to align with spatially grounded visual inputs-we incorporate Foundational Spatial Grounding to verify workspace awareness and arm-selection logic. Furthermore, we probe model frontiers through Fine-Grained Action Control, investigating whether MLLMs can directly synthesize high-dimensional continuous action modalities (16-Dim) from complex multimodal metadata. Evaluating 30+ state-of-the-art MLLMs, we uncover a persistent and pervasive "coordination paradox"-a significant gap between high-level strategic reasoning and fine-grained physical execution. Results reveal that while frontier MLLMs excel at logic-driven strategy, they frequently suffer from perception-logic disconnection and multi-stream interference during multimodal fusion. ST-BiBench provides a platform for identifying critical bottlenecks in multi-stream multimodal fusion and cross-modal alignment for complex embodied tasks.

IMPACT: Influence Modeling for Open-Set Time Series Anomaly Detection

arXiv:2603.29183v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Open-set anomaly detection (OSAD) is an emerging paradigm designed to utilize limited labeled data from anomaly classes seen in training to identify both seen and unseen anomalies during testing. Current approaches rely on simple augmentation methods to generate pseudo anomalies that replicate unseen anomalies. Despite being promising in image data, these methods are found to be ineffective in time series data due to the failure to preserve its sequential nature, resulting in trivial or unrealistic anomaly patterns. They are further plagued when the training data is contaminated with unlabeled anomalies. This work introduces $\textbf{IMPACT}$, a novel framework that leverages $\underline{\textbf{i}}$nfluence $\underline{\textbf{m}}$odeling for o$\underline{\textbf{p}}$en-set time series $\underline{\textbf{a}}$nomaly dete$\underline{\textbf{ct}}$ion, to tackle these challenges. The key insight is to $\textbf{i)}$ learn an influence function that can accurately estimate the impact of individual training samples on the modeling, and then $\textbf{ii)}$ leverage these influence scores to generate semantically divergent yet realistic unseen anomalies for time series while repurposing high-influential samples as supervised anomalies for anomaly decontamination. Extensive experiments show that IMPACT significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods, showing superior accuracy under varying OSAD settings and contamination rates.

Improved Constrained Generation by Bridging Pretrained Generative Models

arXiv:2603.06742v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Constrained generative modeling is fundamental to applications such as robotic control and autonomous driving, where models must respect physical laws and safety-critical constraints. In real-world settings, these constraints rarely take the form of simple linear inequalities, but instead complex feasible regions that resemble road maps or other structured spatial domains. We propose a constrained generation framework that generates samples directly within such feasible regions while preserving realism. Our method fine-tunes a pretrained generative model to enforce constraints while maintaining generative fidelity. Experimentally, our method exhibits characteristics distinct from existing fine-tuning and training-free constrained baselines, revealing a new compromise between constraint satisfaction and sampling quality.

Learning from Complexity: Exploring Dynamic Sample Pruning of Spatio-Temporal Training

arXiv:2602.19113v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Spatio-temporal forecasting is fundamental to intelligent systems in transportation, climate science, and urban planning. However, training deep learning models on the massive, often redundant, datasets from these domains presents a significant computational bottleneck. Existing solutions typically focus on optimizing model architectures or optimizers, while overlooking the inherent inefficiency of the training data itself. This conventional approach of iterating over the entire static dataset each epoch wastes considerable resources on easy-to-learn or repetitive samples. In this paper, we explore a novel training-efficiency techniques, namely learning from complexity with dynamic sample pruning, ST-Prune, for spatio-temporal forecasting. Through dynamic sample pruning, we aim to intelligently identify the most informative samples based on the model's real-time learning state, thereby accelerating convergence and improving training efficiency. Extensive experiments conducted on real-world spatio-temporal datasets show that ST-Prune significantly accelerates the training speed while maintaining or even improving the model performance, and it also has scalability and universality.

Test-Time Learning of Causal Structure from Interventional Data

arXiv:2602.19131v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Supervised causal learning has shown promise in causal discovery, yet it often struggles with generalization across diverse interventional settings, particularly when intervention targets are unknown. To address this, we propose TICL (Test-time Interventional Causal Learning), a novel method that synergizes Test-Time Training with Joint Causal Inference. Specifically, we design a self-augmentation strategy to generate instance-specific training data at test time, effectively avoiding distribution shifts. Furthermore, by integrating joint causal inference, we developed a PC-inspired two-phase supervised learning scheme, which effectively leverages self-augmented training data while ensuring theoretical identifiability. Extensive experiments on bnlearn benchmarks demonstrate TICL's superiority in multiple aspects of causal discovery and intervention target detection.
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