arXiv:2603.03526v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Western governments have adopted an assortment of counter-hybrid threat measures to defend against hostile actions below the conventional military threshold. The impact of these measures is unclear because of the ambiguity of hybrid threats, their cross-domain nature, and uncertainty about how countermeasures shape adversarial behavior. This paper offers a novel approach to clarifying this impact by unifying previously bifurcating hybrid threat modeling methods through a (multi-agent) influence diagram framework. The model balances the costs of countermeasures, their ability to dissuade the adversary from executing hybrid threats, and their potential to mitigate the impact of hybrid threats. We run 1000 semi-synthetic variants of a real-world-inspired scenario simulating the strategic interaction between attacking agent A and defending agent B over a cyber attack on critical infrastructure to explore the effectiveness of a set of five different counter-hybrid threat measures. Counter-hybrid measures range from strengthening resilience and denial of the adversary's ability to execute a hybrid threat to dissuasion through the threat of punishment. Our analysis primarily evaluates the overarching characteristics of counter-hybrid threat measures. This approach allows us to generalize the effectiveness of these measures and examine parameter impact sensitivity. In addition, we discuss policy relevance and outline future research avenues.

arXiv:2603.04276v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are trained on enormous amounts of data and encode knowledge in their parameters. We propose a pipeline to elicit causal relationships from LLMs. Specifically, (i) we sample many documents from LLMs on a given topic, (ii) we extract an event list from from each document, (iii) we group events that appear across documents into canonical events, (iv) we construct a binary indicator vector for each document over canonical events, and (v) we estimate candidate causal graphs using causal discovery methods. Our approach does not guarantee real-world causality. Rather, it provides a framework for presenting the set of causal hypotheses that LLMs can plausibly assume, as an inspectable set of variables and candidate graphs.

arXiv:2603.00047v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The alignment tax is widely discussed but has not been formally characterized. We provide a geometric theory of the alignment tax in representation space. Under linear representation assumptions, we define the alignment tax rate as the squared projection of the safety direction onto the capability subspace and derive the Pareto frontier governing safety-capability tradeoffs, parameterized by a single quantity of the principal angle between the safety and capability subspaces. We prove this frontier is tight and show it has a recursive structure. safety-safety tradeoffs under capability constraints are governed by the same equation, with the angle replaced by the partial correlation between safety objectives given capability directions. We derive a scaling law decomposing the alignment tax into an irreducible component determined by data structure and a packing residual that vanishes as $O(m'/d)$ with model dimension $d$, and establish conditions under which capability preservation mediates or resolves conflicts between safety objectives.