arXiv:2603.02913v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently been successfully applied to regression tasks -- such as time series forecasting and tabular prediction -- by leveraging their in-context learning abilities. However, their autoregressive decoding process may be ill-suited to continuous-valued outputs, where obtaining predictive distributions over numerical targets requires repeated sampling, leading to high computational cost and inference time. In this work, we investigate whether distributional properties of LLM predictions can be recovered without explicit autoregressive generation. To this end, we study a set of regression probes trained to predict statistical functionals (e.g., mean, median, quantiles) of the LLM's numerical output distribution directly from its internal representations. Our results suggest that LLM embeddings carry informative signals about summary statistics of their predictive distributions, including the numerical uncertainty. This investigation opens up new questions about how LLMs internally encode uncertainty in numerical tasks, and about the feasibility of lightweight alternatives to sampling-based approaches for uncertainty-aware numerical predictions.

arXiv:2603.01771v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Neural networks (NNs) often have critical behavioural trade-offs that are set at design time with hyperparameters-such as reward weights in reinforcement learning or quantile targets in regression. Post-deployment, however, user preferences can evolve, making initial settings undesirable, necessitating potentially expensive retraining. To circumvent this, we introduce the task of Hyperparameter Trajectory Inference (HTI): to learn, from observed data, how a NN's conditional output distribution changes with its hyperparameters, and construct a surrogate model that approximates the NN at unobserved hyperparameter settings. HTI requires extending existing trajectory inference approaches to incorporate conditions, exacerbating the challenge of ensuring inferred paths are feasible. We propose an approach based on conditional Lagrangian optimal transport, jointly learning the Lagrangian function governing hyperparameter-induced dynamics along with the associated optimal transport maps and geodesics between observed marginals, which form the surrogate model. We incorporate inductive biases based on the manifold hypothesis and least-action principles into the learned Lagrangian, improving surrogate model feasibility. We empirically demonstrate that our approach reconstructs NN outputs across various hyperparameter spectra better than other alternatives.