arXiv:2604.03275v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Effective adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change require high-resolution projections to inform strategic decision-making. Conventional global climate models, which typically operate at resolutions of 150 to 200 kilometers, lack the capacity to represent essential regional processes. IPSL-AID is a global to regional downscaling tool based on a denoising diffusion probabilistic model designed to address this limitation. Trained on ERA5 reanalysis data, it generates 0.25 degree resolution fields for temperature, wind, and precipitation using coarse inputs and their spatiotemporal context. It also models probability distributions of fine-scale features to produce plausible scenarios for uncertainty quantification. The model accurately reconstructs statistical distributions, including extreme events, power spectra, and spatial structures. This work highlights the potential of generative diffusion models for efficient climate downscaling with uncertainty

arXiv:2604.03289v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Coupling constitutes a foundational mechanism in the Earth system, regulating the interconnected physical, chemical, and biological processes that link its spheres. This review examines how emerging artificial intelligence (AI) methods create new opportunities to enhance Earth system coupling and address long-standing limitations in multi-component models. Rather than surveying next-generation modelling efforts broadly, we focus specifically on how state-of-the-art AI techniques can strengthen cross-domain interactions, support more coherent multi-component representations, and enable progress toward unified Earth system frameworks. The scope extends beyond climate models to include any modelling system in which Earth spheres interact. We outline emerging opportunities, persistent limitations, and conceptual pathways through which AI may enhance physical consistency, interpretability, and integration across domains. In doing so, this review provides a structured foundation for understanding the role of AI in advancing coupled Earth system modelling.

arXiv:2604.03292v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We assess the influence of different Eulerian geophysical input fields on Lagrangian drift simulations using DriftNet, a learning-based method designed to simulate Lagrangian drift on the sea surface. Two experiments are conducted: a fully numerical experiment (Benchmark B1) and a real-world drifters-based experiment (Benchmark B2). Both experiments are performed in two regions with different ocean dynamics: North East Pacific and Gulf Stream regions. The performance of DrifNet is evaluated with three different metrics: separation distance between simulated and ground-truth trajectories, the normalized cumulative Lagrangian separation and the autocorrelation of Lagrangian velocities. In both regions, results from B1 show that combining assimilated sea surface currents (SSC) with fully observed sea surface height (SSH) leads to greatest improvement in trajectory simulation. This configuration reduces separation distance by over 50\% and significantly decreases normalized cumulative Lagrangian separation and metrics related to velocities autocorrelation functions compared to the baseline using SSC alone. On the other hand, the inclusion of sea surface temperature (SST) either alone or in combination with SSC generally degrades performance. In B2, using satellite-derived SSH, Ekman and winds velocities improves surface drifters trajectories simulation, particularly in the North East Pacific. While the satellite-derived SST in combination with reanalysis-based SSC configuration leads to better trajectories simulation in the Gulf Stream. Overall, we highlight the added value of combining multiple geophysical fields to improve Lagrangian drift simulation on both numerical and real-world experiments.

arXiv:2604.03300v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce AIFS-COMPO, a skilful medium-range data-driven global forecasting system for aerosols and reactive gases. Building on the ECMWF Artificial Intelligence Forecast System (AIFS), AIFS-COMPO employs a transformer-based encoder-processor-decoder architecture to jointly model meteorological and atmospheric composition variables. The model is trained on Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis, analysis, and forecast data to learn the coupled dynamics of weather, emissions, transport, and atmospheric chemistry. We evaluate AIFS-COMPO against a range of atmospheric composition observations and compare its performance with the operational CAMS global forecasting system IFS-COMPO. The results show that AIFS-COMPO achieves comparable or improved forecast skill for several key species while requiring only a fraction of the computational resources. Furthermore, the efficiency of the approach enables forecasts beyond the current operational horizon, demonstrating the potential of AI-based systems for fast and accurate global atmospheric composition prediction.

arXiv:2604.03303v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce a probabilistic diffusion-based method for global atmospheric downscaling implemented within the Anemoi framework. The approach transforms low-resolution ensemble forecasts into high-resolution ensembles by learning the conditional distribution of finer-scale residuals, defined as the difference between the high-resolution fields and the interpolated low-resolution inputs. The system is trained on reforecast pairs from ECMWF IFS, using coarse fields at 100 km to reconstruct fine-scale variability at 30 km resolution. The bulk of the training focuses on recovering small-scale structures, while fine-tuning in high-noise regimes enables the generation of extremes. Evaluation against the medium-range IFS ensemble target shows that the model increases probabilistic skill (FCRPS) for surface variables, reproduces target power spectra at small scales, captures physically consistent multivariate relationships such as wind-pressure coupling, and generates extreme values consistent with those of the target ensemble in tropical cyclones.