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A Multimodal Foundation Model of Spatial Transcriptomics and Histology for Biological Discovery and Clinical Prediction

arXiv:2604.03630v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Spatial transcriptomics (ST) enables gene expression mapping within anatomical context but remains costly and low-throughput. Hematoxylin and eosin (H\&E) staining offers rich morphology yet lacks molecular resolution. We present \textbf{\ours} (\textbf{S}patial \textbf{T}ranscriptomics and hist\textbf{O}logy \textbf{R}epresentation \textbf{M}odel), a foundation model trained on 1.2 million spatially resolved transcriptomic profiles with matched histology across 18 organs. Using a hierarchical architecture integrating morphological features, gene expression, and spatial context, STORM bridges imaging and omics through robust molecular--morphological representations. STORM enhances spatial domain discovery, producing biologically coherent tissue maps, and outperforms existing methods in predicting spatial gene expression from H\&E images across 11 tumor types. The model is platform-agnostic, performing consistently across Visium, Xenium, Visium HD, and CosMx. Applied to 23 independent cohorts comprising 7,245 patients, STORM significantly improves immunotherapy response prediction and prognostication over established biomarkers, providing a scalable framework for spatially informed discovery and clinical precision medicine.

Good Rankings, Wrong Probabilities: A Calibration Audit of Multimodal Cancer Survival Models

arXiv:2604.04239v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multimodal deep learning models that fuse whole-slide histopathology images with genomic data have achieved strong discriminative performance for cancer survival prediction, as measured by the concordance index. Yet whether the survival probabilities derived from these models - either directly from native outputs or via standard post-hoc reconstruction - are calibrated remains largely unexamined. We conduct, to our knowledge, the first systematic fold-level 1-calibration audit of multimodal WSI-genomics survival architectures, evaluating native discrete-time survival outputs (Experiment A: 3 models on TCGA-BRCA) and Breslow-reconstructed survival curves from scalar risk scores (Experiment B: 11 architectures across 5 TCGA cancer types). In Experiment A, all three models fail 1-calibration on a majority of folds (12 of 15 fold-level tests reject after Benjamini-Hochberg correction). Across the full 290 fold-level tests, 166 reject the null of correct calibration at the median event time after Benjamini-Hochberg correction (FDR = 0.05). MCAT achieves C-index 0.817 on GBMLGG yet fails 1-calibration on all five folds. Gating-based fusion is associated with better calibration; bilinear and concatenation fusion are not. Post-hoc Platt scaling reduces miscalibration at the evaluated horizon (e.g., MCAT: 5/5 folds failing to 2/5) without affecting discrimination. The concordance index alone is insufficient for evaluating survival models intended for clinical use.
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