arXiv:2605.24564v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Backtesting large language models (LLMs) on historical financial data is unreliable because pre-training cuts off after the events happened. An LLM trained in 2024 already "knows" which way 2018-2020 stocks moved. We name this failure parametric look-ahead bias and propose FinCAD, an inference-time adaptation of Context-Aware Decoding that suppresses an LLM's memory of historical outcomes without retraining. FinCAD pairs an adversarial bias-discovery pipeline that learns a model-specific memory-activating prior prompt with an entity- and date-adaptive rule that scales the CAD strength to per-(entity, date) memorisation, so the penalty fires on memorised in-sample dates and decays to zero out-of-sample. Across five 7-14B LLMs and five mega-cap equities, FinCAD cuts in-sample backtest returns by up to -67.1% on memorised dates while leaving 2025 out-of-sample returns within $8K and Sharpe within 0.10 of baseline, and preserves general-purpose reasoning within 1.7 pts. On an eleven-model leaderboard, it raises the in-sample / out-of-sample Spearman correlation from +0.779 to +0.846, recovering rankings that genuinely predict out-of-sample performance.

arXiv:2605.24910v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Financial Numerical Entity (FNE) understanding aims to recover the meaning of numerical mentions in financial reports. Existing studies primarily focus on concept name prediction and face two important limitations. First, labels derived from inline XBRL may contain errors because filings are usually prepared manually. Second, other important FNE attributes, such as reporting-time relation, measurement scale, and accounting sign, are less emphasized. We propose \textbf{NO}ise-\textbf{R}obust Tagging for Rich Financial Numerical Entity \textbf{A}ttributes (\textsc{NORA}) to address these gaps. NORA uses task-aware instance-specific weighting to attenuate the influence of noisy labels during training, and we further propose the Neighborhood Prior-adjusted KNN (NPK) filtering method for more reliable evaluation on real-world noisy test sets. In addition, we construct a large-scale benchmark containing 6.6 million instances with multi-attribute labels and filing metadata. Experiments show that \textsc{NORA} performs strongly compared with state-of-the-art noisy-label baselines, including Co-teaching, Mixup, SSR, and SelfMix. Moreover, NORA is robust under both unfiltered and noise-filtered test settings. It achieves the best Accuracy, Macro F1, and Weighted F1 for concept name and time-relation prediction, while remaining competitive on scale and sign prediction. These results demonstrate the value of jointly modeling rich FNE attributes while accounting for label noise in real-world financial filings.

arXiv:2605.25151v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models are increasingly used as behavioral simulators, but it remains unclear when their outputs reflect human-like cognitive mechanisms rather than prompt-sensitive surface patterns. We study this question through the realization effect, a well-characterized finding in behavioral economics in which risk-taking differs systematically after paper versus realized gains and losses. We evaluate LLM behavior at three levels: prompt-only behavioral sensitivity, linear readout of internal representations, and causal control via activation steering. Prompt-only results show systematic condition sensitivity, but the directional pattern does not reproduce human realization-effect predictions. Gemma's residual stream contains a linearly decodable realization-status signal at layer 18 that generalizes to held-out prompts. Steering along this direction does not, however, reliably shift downstream risk choices, a null result that holds across positive scales and in a negative sign-symmetry run. Behavioral sensitivity, latent readout, and causal control are three distinct properties that do not automatically co-occur, and successful latent readout is insufficient evidence that a model behaviorally relies on a representation during downstream decision-making.

arXiv:2605.25717v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Most of the world's offshore wind resource lies in waters too deep for fixed-bottom foundations, making floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) essential for deep-water deployment. As the industry scales toward $22$ MW class designs, tower fatigue becomes increasingly critical because larger structures amplify the coupled aero-hydro-servo-elastic loads induced by continuous wind and wave excitation. Accurate fatigue-damage prediction is therefore central to certification, design optimization, and cost reduction. Yet the field lacks a shared surrogate benchmark: studies report different simulations, splits, and metrics, making methods difficult to compare. We present FLOATBench, a public tabular benchmark with $582{,}120$ per-section fatigue-damage labels across three $22$ MW FOWT tower geometries, derived from $19{,}404$ high-fidelity OpenFAST simulations across the three towers ($6{,}468$ per tower: $1{,}078$ aligned wind/wave operating points $\times$ six turbulence seeds), labeled at $30$ cross-sections per tower. FLOATBench includes a regime-aware alpha-shape partition of the joint wind/wave operating envelope, stratifying test points into in-train, interpolation, and extrapolation regimes. It is paired with a reproducible evaluation harness covering three protocol levels: random validation (E1), within-tower regime-aware evaluation (E2), and cross-tower transfer (E3). The regime-aware protocol reveals rank shifts between global and extrapolation performance that random-split leaderboards cannot detect. To the authors' knowledge, FLOATBench is the first FOWT fatigue benchmark for tabular surrogate modeling, and offers an evaluation protocol that generalizes to engineering surrogates defined over physical operating envelopes. Dataset and code available at: https://github.com/Joao97ribeiro/FLOATBench.

arXiv:2605.25115v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce "Courant", a Perceiver-based encoder-processor-decoder surrogate model that has latent features exhibiting adaptive specialization and local support in the physical space, enabling functionality akin to an adaptive hp-refinement scheme, an attribute that is highly desirable in traditional numerical solvers and scientific machine learning broadly. The proposed architecture combines a shared random Fourier feature coordinate embedding, state-adapted latent queries, and a light-weight decoder. Courant is trained end-to-end with steady or transient simulation data and only a standard L_2 prediction loss in the physical space, achieving competitive accuracy on benchmarks. We demonstrate that Courant's inductive biases yield latents that are interpretable by design: they develop multiscale geometric specialization in the simulation domain and track coherent structures in the time-dependent case, acting analogously to time-evolving spatial basis functions and allowing for decoding a compact, geometry-anchored, partition-of-unity-like decomposition of the simulated field.

arXiv:2511.04556v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Urban flooding triggered by intense rainfall is becoming increasingly frequent and widespread. While flood prediction and monitoring in high spatio-temporal resolution are desired, practical constraints in time, budget, and technology hinder its full implementation. How to monitor urban drainage networks and predict flow conditions under constrained resources is a major challenge. To address this, we introduced a data-driven sparse sensing (DSS) approach, demonstrated via a digital-twin of the Woodland catchment in Duluth, Minnesota. Specifically, we coupled EPA-SWMM with singular value decomposition and QR factorization-based sensor selection to optimize monitoring locations for system-level flow reconstruction. An ensemble of SWMM simulations, driven by diverse scenarios, provided the necessary hydraulic data to extract the reduced basis and identify informative sensor locations. Cross-event validation showed that three strategically placed sensors among 77 candidate nodes achieved a mean system-level Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.949 across observed storm events. The QR-selected sensor sets were benchmarked against reference sensor configurations obtained from exhaustive searches and Monte Carlo random-placements. This comparison further showed that flow reconstruction based on QR-selected sensors closely tracked the exhaustive optimum while substantially outperforming random placements. We further evaluated the framework's robustness by introducing multiplicative Gaussian noise and simulating individual sensor failures. While the model is relatively resilient to noise, the impact of sensor dropouts depends heavily on the number of sensors allocated and their specific locations.

arXiv:2512.05402v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Bitcoin mining hardware acquisition requires strategic timing due to volatile markets, rapid technological obsolescence, and protocol-driven revenue cycles. Despite mining's evolution into a capital-intensive industry, there is little guidance on when to purchase new Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) hardware, and no prior computational frameworks address this decision problem. We address this gap by formulating hardware acquisition as a time series classification task, predicting whether purchasing ASIC machines yields profitable (Return on Investment (ROI) >= 1), marginal (0