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Desalination plants in the Middle East are increasingly vulnerable
MIT Technology Review Explains: Let our writers untangle the complex, messy world of technology to help you understand whatβs coming next. You can read more from the series here.
As the conflict in Iran has escalated, a crucial resource is under fire: the desalination technology that supplies water across much of the region.
In early March, Iranβs foreign minister accused the US of attacking a desalination plant on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting the water supply to nearly 30 villages. (The US denied responsibility.) In the weeks since, both Bahrain and Kuwait have reported damage to desalination plants and blamed Iran, though Iran also denied responsibility.
In late March, President Donald Trump threatened the destruction of βpossibly all desalinization plantsβ in Iran if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened. Since then, heβs escalated his threats against Iran, warning of plans to attack other crucial civilian infrastructure like power plants and bridges.
Countries in the Middle East, particularly the Gulf states, rely on the technology to turn salt water into fresh water for farming, industry, andβcruciallyβdrinking. The mounting attacks and threats to date highlight just how vital the industry is to the regionβa situation made even more precarious by rising temperatures and extreme weather driven by climate change.
Right now, 83% of the Middle East is under extremely high water stress, says Liz Saccoccia, a water security associate at the World Resources Institute. Future projections suggest thatβs going to increase to about 100% by 2050, she adds: βThis is a continuing trend, and itβs getting worse, not better.β
Hereβs a look at desalination technology in the Middle East and what wartime threats to the critical infrastructure could mean for people in the region.Β
A vital resource
Desalination technology has helped provide water supplies in the Middle East since the early 20th century and became widespread in the 1960s and 1970s.
There are two major categories of desalination plants. Thermal plants use heat to evaporate water, leaving salt and other impurities behind. The vapor can then be condensed into usable fresh water. The alternative is membrane-based technology like reverse osmosis, which pushes water through membranes that have tiny poresβso small that salt canβt get through.
Early desalination plants in the Middle East were the first type, burning fossil fuels to evaporate water, leaving the salt behind. This technique is incredibly energy-intensive, and over time, processes that rely on filters became the dominant choice.
Membrane technologies have made up essentially all new desalination capacity in recent years; the last major thermal plant built in the Gulf came online in 2018. Many reverse osmosis plants still rely on fossil fuels, but theyβre more efficient. Since then, membrane technologies have added more than 15 million cubic meters of daily capacityβenough to supply water to millions of people.
Capacity has expanded quickly in recent years; between 2006 and 2024, countries across the Middle East collectively spent over $50 billion building and upgrading desalination facilities, and nearly that much operating them.
Today, there are nearly 5,000 desalination plants operational across the Middle East.
And looking ahead, growth is continuing. Between 2024 and 2028, daily capacity is expected to grow from about 29 million cubic meters to 41 million cubic meters.
Uneven vulnerabilities
Some countries rely on the technology more than others. Iran, for example, uses desalination for about 3% of its municipal fresh water. The country has access to groundwater and some surface water, including rivers, though these resources are being stretched thin by agriculture and extreme drought.
Other nations in the region, particularly the Gulf countries (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Oman), have much more limited water resources and rely heavily on desalination. Across these six nations, all but the UAE get more than half their drinking water from desalination, and for Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait the figure is more than 90%.
βThe Gulf countries are much, much more vulnerable to attacks on their desalination plants than Iran is,β says David Michel, a senior associate in the global food and water security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
There are thousands of desalination facilities across the region, so the system wouldnβt collapse if a small number were taken offline, Michel says. However, in recent years thereβs been a trend toward larger, more centralized plants.
The average desalination plant is about 10 times larger than it was 15 years ago, according to data from the International Energy Agency. The largest desalination plants today can produce 1 million cubic meters of water daily, enough for hundreds of thousands of people. Taking one or more of these massive facilities offline could have a significant effect on the system, Michel says.
Escalating threats
Desalination facilities are quite linear, meaning there are multiple steps and pieces of equipment that work in sequenceβand the failure of a component in that chain can take an entire facility down. Attacks on water inlets, transportation networks, and power supplies can also disrupt the system, Michel says.Β
During the Gulf War in 1991, Iraqi forces pumped oil into the gulf, contaminating the water and shutting down desalination plants in Kuwait.Β
The facilities are also generally located close to other targets in this conflict. Desalination is incredibly energy intensive, so about three-quarters of facilities in the region are next to power plants. Trump has repeatedly threatened power plants in Iran. In response, Iranβs military has said that if civilian targets are hit, the country will respond with strikes that are βmuch more devastating and widespread.β Other governments and organizations, including the United Nations, the European Union, and the Red Cross, have broadly condemned threats to infrastructure as illegal.Β
But war isnβt the only danger facing these plants, even if it is the most immediate. Some studies have suggested that global warming could strengthen cyclones in the region, and these extreme weather events could force shutdowns or damage equipment.
Water pollution could also cause shutdowns. Oil spills, whether accidental or intentional, as in the case of the Gulf War, canΒ wreak havoc. And in 2009, a red algae bloom closed desalination plants in Oman and the United Arab Emirates for weeks. The algae fouled membranes and blocked the plants from being able to take water in from the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
Desalination facilities could become more resilient to threats in the future, and they may need to as their importance continues to grow.Β
Thereβs increasing interest in running desalination facilities at least partially on solar power, which could help reduce dependence on the oil that powers most facilities today. The Hassyan seawater desalination project in the UAE, currently under construction, would be the largest reverse osmosis plant in the world to operate solely with renewable energy.Β
Another way to increase resilience is for countries to build up more strategic water storage to meet demand. Qatar recently issued new policies that aim to improve management and storage of desalinated water, for example. Countries could also work together to invest in shared infrastructure and policies that help strengthen the water supply through the region.Β
Preparedness, resilience, and cooperation will be key for the Middle East broadly as critical infrastructure, including the water supply, is increasingly under threat.Β
βThe longer the conflict goes on, the more likely weβll see significant water infrastructure damage,β says Ginger Matchett, an assistant director at the Atlantic Council. βWhat worries me is that after this war ends, some of the lessons will show how water can be weaponized more strategically than previously imagined.βΒ
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The Download: AIβs impact on jobs, and data centres in space
This is todayβs edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of whatβs going on in the world of technology.
The one piece of data that couldΒ actually shedΒ light on your job and AIΒ
Within Silicon Valleyβs orbit, an AI-fueledΒ jobs apocalypse is spoken about as a given. Now even economists who have downplayed the threat are coming around to the idea.Β Β
Alex Imas, based at the University of Chicago, is one of them. He believes that any plan to address AIβs impact will depend on collecting one vital piece of data: price elasticity.Β
Imas argues that βwe need a Manhattan Projectβ for this.Β Read the full story to find out why.Β
βJames OβDonnellΒ
ThisΒ articleΒ is from The Algorithm, our weekly newsletter giving you the inside track on all things AI.Β Sign upΒ to receive it in your inbox every Monday.Β
Four thingsΒ weβdΒ need to put dataΒ centersΒ in spaceΒ
In January, Elon Muskβs SpaceX applied to launch up to 1 million dataΒ centersΒ into Earthβs orbit. The goal? To fully unleash the potential of AIβwithout triggering an environmental crisis on Earth.Β
SpaceX is among a growing list of tech firms pursuing orbital computing infrastructure. But can their plans really work?Β Here are four must-haves for making space-based data centers a reality.Β
βTerezaΒ PultarovaΒ
ThisΒ storyΒ is part of MIT Technology Review Explains, our series untangling the complex, messy world of technology to help you understandΒ whatβsΒ coming next.Β You can read more from the series here.Β
The must-readsΒ
IβveΒ combed the internet to find you todayβs most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology.Β
1 Trump has again proposed major cuts to US science and tech spendingΒ
He wants to slashΒ nearly everyΒ science-focused agency. (Ars Technica)Β
+ If Trump gets his way, the US could face a costly brain drain.Β (NYTΒ $)Β Β
+ Top research talent is already fleeing the country.Β (Guardian)Β Β
+ Basic science deserves our boldest investment.Β (MIT Technology Review)Β
2 Sam Altman lobbied against AI regulations he publicly welcomedΒ Β
A bombshell report reveals many OpenAI insidersΒ donβtΒ trust him. (The New YorkerΒ $)Β
+ Some have called him a sociopath.Β (Futurism)Β
+ OpenAIβs CFO fears itΒ wonβtΒ be IPO-ready this year.Β (The InformationΒ $)Β Β
+ A war over AI regulation is brewing in the US.Β (MIT Technology Review)Β
3 NASAβs Artemis II has broken humanityβs all-time distance recordΒ
The astronauts have flown farther than any humans before them. (BBC)Β
+ Their mission includes MIT-developed technology.Β (Axios)Β
4 Chinese tech firms are selling intel βexposingβ US forcesΒ
It comes from combining AI with open-sourceΒ data..Β (WPΒ $)Β
+ AI is turning the Iran conflict intoΒ theater.Β (MIT Technology Review)Β
5 War is pushing countries to ditch hyperscalersΒ
Driven by Iran naming tech giants as military targets. (Rest of World)Β
+ No one wants a dataΒ centerΒ in their backyard.Β (MIT Technology Review)Β
6 OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google have united against Chinaβs AI copyingΒ
TheyβreΒ sharing information on βadversarial distillationβ (BloombergΒ $)Β
7 Anduril and Impulse Space are working on Trumpβs βGolden DomeβΒ
Theyβre developing space-based missile tracking for the project. (Gizmodo)Β Β
8 OpenAI has urged California to probe Elon Muskβs βanti-competitiveΒ behavior.βΒ
It accuses Musk of trying to βtake control of the future of AGI.β (ReutersΒ $)Β
+ And claims he coordinated attacks withΒ Mark Zuckerberg.Β (CNBC)Β
+ A former Tesla president has revealed how he survived working for Musk.Β (WPΒ $)Β
9 DeepSeekβs new AI model willΒ run onΒ Huawei chipsΒ
Itβs expected to launch in the next few weeks. (The InformationΒ $)Β
10 Memes have nuked our cultureΒ
Internet βbrain rotβ has escaped our phones to take over everything. (NYTΒ $)Β
Quote of the dayΒ
βI must say, it was actually quite nice.βΒ
Β βAstronaut Victor Glover tells President Donald Trump what it was like when Artemis II was out of communication with the rest of humanity,Β The New York TimesΒ reports.Β
One More ThingΒ

Inside the controversial tree farms powering Appleβs carbon-neutral goalΒ Β
In 2020, Apple set a goal to become net zero by the end of the decade. To hit that target, the company is offsetting its emissions by planting millions of eucalyptus trees in Brazil.Β
Apple is betting that the strategy will lead to a greener future. But critics warn that the industrial tree farms will do more harm than good.Β
Find out why the plans have sparked a backlash.Β
βGregory BarberΒ
We can still haveΒ nice thingsΒ
A place for comfort, fun and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas?Β Drop me a line.)Β
+ JapanβsΒ automated bike garageΒ is a cyclistβs dream come true.Β Β
+ This deep dive intoΒ bird behaviorΒ reveals the secrets of their dining habits. (Big thanks to reader Terry Gordon for the find!)Β
+ TheΒ first photoΒ from the Artemis astronauts vividly captures the glow of our atmosphere.Β
+Β ThereβsΒ a new contender for the worldβs most gorgeous website:Β RobertDeNiro.com.Β