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Understanding and Mitigating Premature Confidence for Better LLM Reasoning

arXiv:2605.24396v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long chains of thought (CoT) from current language models frequently contain logical gaps and unjustified leaps, limiting the gains from additional test-time compute. Improving reasoning quality directly would require process reward models, but the step-level annotations needed to train them are expensive and scarce. We find such a signal in how the model's confidence evolves during reasoning: premature confidence, the tendency to commit to an answer early and use the remaining tokens to rationalize it, strongly predicts flawed reasoning across tasks and model scales. We exploit this in progressive confidence shaping, a reinforcement learning objective that trains models to update their confidence as they reason rather than commit early -- rewarding gradual confidence growth and penalizing early commitment, with no external labels or reward models. The method improves accuracy and reasoning quality from 1.5B to 8B parameters across arithmetic (Countdown), math (DAPO, AIME), and science (ScienceQA): on Countdown, accuracy improves 3.2x (+42.0pp) and flawed reasoning drops 48pp; on AIME, Pass@64 improves 6.6pp. Consistent with this mechanism, the method also improves faithfulness: on a safety benchmark, our models more transparently surface misleading content in their reasoning traces rather than concealing it. Controlled experiments reveal that the problem and its remedy scale together: premature confidence grows with model size and task difficulty, and so do the gains from addressing it.
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Flow Map Language Models: One-step Language Modeling via Continuous Denoising

arXiv:2602.16813v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Language models based on discrete diffusion have attracted widespread interest for their potential to provide faster generation than autoregressive models. Despite their promise, these models typically produce samples whose quality sharply degrades in the few-step regime, preventing a dramatic speedup in practice. Here, we show that language models based on continuous flows over one-hot token embeddings can outperform discrete diffusion in both quality and speed. Importantly, our continuous formulation defines a unique flow map that can be learned directly for efficient few-step inference, a structure we show is unavailable to discrete methods. In this setting, we show that both the flow and its associated flow map can be learned with simple cross-entropy objectives that respect the simplex geometry of the data, and we identify three distinct choices for flow map distillation whose performance we compare in practice. Using these insights, we build a flow language model (FLM), a continuous flow that matches state-of-the-art discrete diffusion baselines on the One Billion Words (LM1B) and OpenWebText (OWT) datasets. We then distill FLM into a flow map language model (FMLM), whose one-step generation exceeds the 8-step quality of recent few-step discrete diffusion language models. Our work challenges the widely-held hypothesis that discrete noising processes are necessary for generative modeling over discrete modalities and paves the way toward accelerated language modeling at scale. Code is available at https://github.com/david3684/flm.
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S2D: Selective Spectral Decay for Quantization-Friendly Conditioning of Neural Activations

arXiv:2602.14432v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Activation outliers in large-scale transformer models pose a fundamental challenge to model quantization, creating excessively large ranges that cause severe accuracy drops during quantization. We empirically observe that outlier severity intensifies with pre-training scale (e.g., progressing from CLIP to the more extensively trained SigLIP and SigLIP2). Through theoretical analysis as well as empirical correlation studies, we establish the direct link between these activation outliers and dominant singular values of the weights. Building on this insight, we propose Selective Spectral Decay ($S^2D$), a geometrically-principled conditioning method that surgically regularizes only the weight components corresponding to the largest singular values during fine-tuning. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that $S^2D$ significantly reduces activation outliers and produces well-conditioned representations that are inherently quantization-friendly. Models trained with $S^2D$ achieve up to 7% improved PTQ accuracy on ImageNet under W4A4 quantization and 4% gains when combined with QAT. These improvements also generalize across downstream tasks and vision-language models, enabling the scaling of increasingly large and rigorously trained models without sacrificing deployment efficiency.
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