arXiv:2609.12101v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In hybrid forecasting, a language model is often one of several available signals. A system may already have a market, crowd, or statistical forecast and must decide whether the model adds useful information or should be ignored. The relevant target is therefore not standalone model accuracy, but relative competence, defined as the model's marginal value beyond the available external forecast. Under Brier loss, we characterize when model disagreement can improve an external forecast and derive the gain from using domain-specific rather than global pooling weights. We then introduce a competence gate that estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, the gate improves the main external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and significantly outperforms global forecast combinations. The gain remains significant under leakage controls and against a leakage-safe time-series prior on the pooled structured set, with separate evidence on FRED. In contrast, the gate gives no significant improvement on the official ForecastBench market subset, where it largely defers to the market. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence does not reliably identify when the model outperforms the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supports better abstention decisions. These results provide a practical approach for selective model use based on measured marginal value.

arXiv:2603.07978v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: General-purpose computer-use agents have shown impressive performance across diverse digital environments. However, our new benchmark, OSExpert-Eval, indicates they remain far less helpful than human experts. Although inference-time scaling enables adaptation, these agents complete complex tasks inefficiently with degraded performance, transfer poorly to unseen UIs, and struggle with fine-grained action sequences. To solve the problem, we introduce a GUI-based depth-first search (GUI-DFS) exploration algorithm to comprehensively explore and verify an environment's unit functions. The agent then exploits compositionality between unit skills to self-construct a curriculum for composite tasks. To support fine-grained actions, we curate a database of action primitives for agents to discover during exploration; these are saved as a skill set once the exploration is complete. We use the learned skills to improve the agent's performance and efficiency by (1) enriching agents with ready-to-use procedural knowledge, allowing them to plan only once for long trajectories and generate accurate actions, and (2) enabling them to end inference-time scaling earlier by realizing their boundary of capabilities. Extensive experiments show that our environment-learned agent takes a meaningful step toward expert-level computer use, achieving a around 20 percent performance gain on OSExpert-Eval and closing the efficiency gap to humans by around 80 percent