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Understanding and Mitigating Premature Confidence for Better LLM Reasoning

arXiv:2605.24396v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long chains of thought (CoT) from current language models frequently contain logical gaps and unjustified leaps, limiting the gains from additional test-time compute. Improving reasoning quality directly would require process reward models, but the step-level annotations needed to train them are expensive and scarce. We find such a signal in how the model's confidence evolves during reasoning: premature confidence, the tendency to commit to an answer early and use the remaining tokens to rationalize it, strongly predicts flawed reasoning across tasks and model scales. We exploit this in progressive confidence shaping, a reinforcement learning objective that trains models to update their confidence as they reason rather than commit early -- rewarding gradual confidence growth and penalizing early commitment, with no external labels or reward models. The method improves accuracy and reasoning quality from 1.5B to 8B parameters across arithmetic (Countdown), math (DAPO, AIME), and science (ScienceQA): on Countdown, accuracy improves 3.2x (+42.0pp) and flawed reasoning drops 48pp; on AIME, Pass@64 improves 6.6pp. Consistent with this mechanism, the method also improves faithfulness: on a safety benchmark, our models more transparently surface misleading content in their reasoning traces rather than concealing it. Controlled experiments reveal that the problem and its remedy scale together: premature confidence grows with model size and task difficulty, and so do the gains from addressing it.
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Momentum Streams for Optimizer-Inspired Transformers

arXiv:2605.24425v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The residual update of a pre-norm Transformer layer admits an interpretation as one step of a first-order optimizer acting on a surrogate token energy, wherein the attention and MLP sublayers function as gradient oracles. Based on this observation, we build a family of optimizer-inspired Transformers (triple-momentum, Adam/AdamW, Muon, SOAP) and compare them under matched compute. In our main pretraining experiment, the triple-momentum TMMFormer achieves the lowest validation loss, outperforming the vanilla Transformer and prior architectural variants. A controlled ablation and supporting theory show that momentum, not preconditioning, is the main source of the gain. We further show that TMMFormer and other momentum-based designs reach flatter minima than the vanilla Transformer, which leads to less forgetting and better generalization.
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