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Metropolis-Scale Resilient and Trustworthy Traffic Flow Inference Using Multi-Source Data

arXiv:2605.25004v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Inferring network-wide traffic states from sparse observations with high accuracy and trustworthy uncertainty quantification is essential for intelligent transportation systems, yet it remains challenging due to the underdetermined nature of the problem, multifaceted disturbances in sensing networks, and the inherent conflicts among multiple inference sub-tasks when modeled jointly. We propose the Task-Aware Attentive Neural Process (TA-ANP), a unified probabilistic framework for resilient and trustworthy global traffic state inference (GTSI) by fusing floating car data (FCD) with sparse fixed-detector measurements. By casting GTSI as a stochastic process, TA-ANP leverages the meta-learning properties of neural processes to adapt rapidly to changes in sensing configurations without retraining. A task-aware multi-query attention module with distinct spatiotemporal inductive biases is introduced to jointly handle three GTSI sub-tasks, while mitigating cross-task interference. For uncertainty quantification, we combine neural processes with Monte Carlo Dropout to capture both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. To support metropolis-scale evaluation, we construct the Metropolitan Multi-Source Traffic Dataset (MMTD), integrating fixed-loop sensor measurements, FCD statistics, and OpenStreetMap road-network data over an urban network of 2,371 road segments. Experiments on MMTD show that TA-ANP achieves state-of-the-art performance across all sub-tasks under deterministic and probabilistic metrics. The resulting well-calibrated uncertainties enable more efficient fixed-sensor placement with fewer sensor deployments. Under a Damage-Repair-Addition sensing lifecycle, TA-ANP demonstrates superior resilience in terms of disturbance absorption, performance recovery, and adaptability to unseen sensing configurations.
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RCTs & Human Uplift Studies: Methodological Challenges and Practical Solutions for Frontier AI Evaluation

arXiv:2603.11001v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Human uplift studies, or studies that measure the effects of AI access on human performance via randomized controlled trials (RCT) or similar methodologies, increasingly inform frontier AI governance and deployment decisions. While RCT methods are robust in other fields, their interaction with the distinctive properties of frontier AI systems remains underexamined, particularly when results are used to inform high-stakes decisions. We present findings from interviews with 16 expert practitioners with experience conducting human uplift studies in domains including biosecurity, cybersecurity, education, and labor. Across interviews, experts described a recurring tension between the standard causal inference assumptions upon which human uplift studies rely and the object of study itself. Rapidly evolving AI systems, shifting baselines, heterogeneous and changing user proficiency, and porous real-world settings strain assumptions underlying internal, external, and construct validity, complicating the interpretation and appropriate use of uplift evidence. We contribute (1) a synthesis of methodological challenges in human uplift studies, mapped to risks to study validity and classified by their degree of specificity to large language model (LLM) systems, and (2) a mapping from challenges to proposed solutions. By collating expert-identified challenges and solutions, we seek to clarify the interpretive limits and appropriate uses of human uplift evidence, to align evaluation practice with the decisions it informs, and to support more coordinated methodological foundations for AI governance.
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Can a Small Model Learn to Look Before It Leaps? Dynamic Learning and Proactive Correction for Hallucination Detection

arXiv:2511.05854v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Hallucination in large language models (LLMs) remains a critical barrier to their safe deployment. For hallucination detection to be practical in real-world scenarios, the use of efficient small models is essential to ensure low latency and minimal resource consumption. However, existing methods rely on fixed verification strategies, where simply tuning small models to mimic fixed verification trajectories fails to capture the adaptability required for diverse hallucination patterns, thereby inducing planning instability. To address this limitation, we propose a ``Learning to Evaluate and Adaptively Plan'' (LEAP) framework, which shifts hallucination detection from fixed execution to dynamic strategy learning. Specifically, LEAP first employs a powerful teacher model to iteratively explore and refine verification strategies through a failure-driven loop. This dynamic planning capability is then distilled into an efficient student model, augmented by a novel proactive correction mechanism that enables the model to evaluate and optimize its verification strategy before execution. Experiments on three benchmarks demonstrate that LEAP outperforms state-of-the-art methods, offering an effective and scalable solution for reliable hallucination detection.
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TIGeR: Tool-Integrated Geometric Reasoning in Vision-Language Models for Robotics

arXiv:2510.07181v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in spatial reasoning, yet they remain fundamentally limited to qualitative precision and lack the computational precision required for real-world robotics. Current approaches fail to leverage metric cues from depth sensors and camera calibration, instead reducing geometric problems to pattern recognition tasks that cannot deliver the centimeter-level accuracy essential for robotic manipulation. We present TIGeR (Tool-Integrated Geometric Reasoning), a novel framework that transforms VLMs from perceptual estimators to geometric computers by enabling them to generate and execute precise geometric computations through external tools. Rather than attempting to internalize complex geometric operations within neural networks, TIGeR empowers models to recognize geometric reasoning requirements, synthesize appropriate computational code, and invoke specialized libraries for exact calculations. To support this paradigm, we introduce TIGeR-300K, a comprehensive tool-invocation-oriented dataset covering point transformations, pose estimation, and spatial compatibility verification, complete with tool invocation sequences and intermediate computations. Through a two-stage training pipeline combining supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT) with our proposed hierarchical reward design, TIGeR achieves SOTA performance on geometric reasoning benchmarks while demonstrating centimeter-level precision in real-world robotic manipulation tasks.
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