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Improving Ensemble Forecasts of Abnormally Deflecting Tropical Cyclones with Fused Atmosphere-Ocean-Terrain Data

arXiv:2603.29200v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep learning-based tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting methods have demonstrated significant potential and application advantages, as they feature much lower computational cost and faster operation speed than numerical weather prediction models. However, existing deep learning methods still have key limitations: they can only process a single type of sequential trajectory data or homogeneous meteorological variables, and fail to achieve accurate forecasting of abnormal deflected TCs. To address these challenges, we present two groundbreaking contributions. First, we have constructed a multimodal and multi-source dataset named AOT-TCs for TC forecasting in the Northwest Pacific basin. As the first dataset of its kind, it innovatively integrates heterogeneous variables from the atmosphere, ocean, and land, thus obtaining a comprehensive and information-rich meteorological dataset. Second, based on the AOT-TCs dataset, we propose a forecasting model that can handle both normal and abnormally deflected TCs. This is the first TC forecasting model to adopt an explicit atmosphere-ocean-terrain coupling architecture, enabling it to effectively capture complex interactions across physical domains. Extensive experiments on all TC cases in the Northwest Pacific from 2017 to 2024 show that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance in TC forecasting: it not only significantly improves the forecasting accuracy of normal TCs but also breaks through the technical bottleneck in forecasting abnormally deflected TCs.
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Self-Improving Code Generation via Semantic Entropy and Behavioral Consensus

arXiv:2603.29292v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Improving the code generation capabilities of large language models (LLMs) typically relies on supervised fine-tuning or preference optimization, both of which require costly external resources such as powerful teacher models or reliable test units. However, in real-world scenarios, it is much harder to obtain reference solutions and test oracles than problem descriptions and test inputs. In this paper, we tackle a challenging yet realistic question: Can a code language model improve itself without access to a superior teacher and a test oracle? To answer this, we propose ConSelf, a self-improving approach built upon two key ideas. First, we introduce code semantic entropy, a novel metric that measures problem-level uncertainty by assessing the functional diversity of program behaviors, enabling a curriculum construction with the most learnable problems. Second, we present consensus-driven direct preference optimization (Con-DPO), a preference-based fine-tuning method that weights each preference pair by its behavioral consensus, thereby mitigating the impact of noisy self-generated supervision. Experiments on various benchmarks and backbone LLMs demonstrate that ConSelf significantly outperforms baselines, validating the effectiveness of semantic entropy-based curriculum construction and consensus-driven optimization in improving code generation without external supervision.
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KEditVis: A Visual Analytics System for Knowledge Editing of Large Language Models

arXiv:2603.29689v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate exceptional capabilities in factual question answering, yet they sometimes provide incorrect responses. To address this issue, knowledge editing techniques have emerged as effective methods for correcting factual information in LLMs. However, typical knowledge editing workflows struggle with identifying the optimal set of model layers for editing and rely on summary indicators that provide insufficient guidance. This lack of transparency hinders effective comparison and identification of optimal editing strategies. In this paper, we present KEditVis, a novel visual analytics system designed to assist users in gaining a deeper understanding of knowledge editing through interactive visualizations, improving editing outcomes, and discovering valuable insights for the future development of knowledge editing algorithms. With KEditVis, users can select appropriate layers as the editing target, explore the reasons behind ineffective edits, and perform more targeted and effective edits. Our evaluation, including usage scenarios, expert interviews, and a user study, validates the effectiveness and usability of the system.
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LPNSR: Prior-Enhanced Diffusion Image Super-Resolution via LR-Guided Noise Prediction

arXiv:2603.21045v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Diffusion-based image super-resolution (SR), which aims to reconstruct high-resolution (HR) images from corresponding low-resolution (LR) observations, faces a fundamental trade-off between inference efficiency and reconstruction quality. The state-of-the-art residual-shifting diffusion framework achieves efficient 4-step inference, yet suffers from severe performance degradation in compact sampling trajectories. This is mainly attributed to two core limitations: the inherent suboptimality of unconstrained random Gaussian noise in intermediate steps, which leads to error accumulation and insufficient LR prior guidance, and the initialization bias caused by naive bicubic upsampling. In this paper, we propose LPNSR, a prior-enhanced efficient diffusion framework to address these issues. We first mathematically derive the closed-form analytical solution of the optimal intermediate noise for the residual-shifting diffusion paradigm, and accordingly design an LR-guided multi-input-aware noise predictor to replace random Gaussian noise, embedding LR structural priors into the reverse process while fully preserving the framework's core efficient residual-shifting mechanism. We further mitigate initial bias with a high-quality pre-upsampling network to optimize the diffusion starting point. With a compact 4-step trajectory, LPNSR can be optimized in an end-to-end manner. Extensive experiments demonstrate that LPNSR achieves state-of-the-art perceptual performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets, without relying on any large-scale text-to-image priors. The source code of our method can be found at https://github.com/Faze-Hsw/LPNSR.
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