arXiv:2609.12101v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In hybrid forecasting, a language model is often one of several available signals. A system may already have a market, crowd, or statistical forecast and must decide whether the model adds useful information or should be ignored. The relevant target is therefore not standalone model accuracy, but relative competence, defined as the model's marginal value beyond the available external forecast. Under Brier loss, we characterize when model disagreement can improve an external forecast and derive the gain from using domain-specific rather than global pooling weights. We then introduce a competence gate that estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, the gate improves the main external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and significantly outperforms global forecast combinations. The gain remains significant under leakage controls and against a leakage-safe time-series prior on the pooled structured set, with separate evidence on FRED. In contrast, the gate gives no significant improvement on the official ForecastBench market subset, where it largely defers to the market. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence does not reliably identify when the model outperforms the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supports better abstention decisions. These results provide a practical approach for selective model use based on measured marginal value.

arXiv:2609.12965v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Text-based person search (TBPS) aims to retrieve images of a target person from a large image gallery based on a given natural language description. Most existing methods rely on supervised learning with manually annotated image-text pairs. In this paper, we explore unsupervised TBPS, with only unlabeled images. We propose GTR+, a two-stage generation-then-retrieval framework. In the generation stage, we introduce a tiered description generation framework designed to produce fine-grained and stylistically diverse textual descriptions through a three-tier sequential process. The base tier leverages an automated question-and-answer mechanism to generate basic visual attribute descriptions; the intermediate tier enhances fine-grained detail using an inter-sample contrastive mechanism; the advanced tier further enriches textual diversity via a stylized expansion mechanism. In the retrieval stage, to mitigate the impact of noisy pseudo texts, we develop an adaptive confidence-weighted retrieval learning framework. We model image-text pairs as clean or noisy using a Gaussian Mixture Model, calibrated by real-time image-text similarity and static text generation probability from the prior stage, yielding adaptive sample weights during training. Beyond that, we also contribute LargeFine-Person, a large-scale TBPS dataset with high-quality, fine-grained, and diverse textual annotations, enabling a practical and generalizable TBPS pre-training benchmark under unsupervised setting. Experiments on multiple TBPS benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness and generalization of both GTR+ and LargeFine-Person. Code is available at: https://github.com/Flame-Chasers/GTR.