arXiv:2602.04678v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Time series forecasting in real-world applications requires both high predictive accuracy and interpretable uncertainty quantification. Traditional point prediction methods often fail to capture the inherent uncertainty in time series data, while existing probabilistic approaches struggle to balance computational efficiency with interpretability. We propose a novel Multi-Expert Learning Distributional Labels (LDL) framework that addresses these challenges through mixture-of-experts architectures with distributional learning capabilities. Our approach introduces two complementary methods: (1) Multi-Expert LDL, which employs multiple experts with different learned parameters to capture diverse temporal patterns, and (2) Pattern-Aware LDL-MoE, which explicitly decomposes time series into interpretable components (trend, seasonality, changepoints, volatility) through specialized sub-experts. Both frameworks extend traditional point prediction to distributional learning, enabling rich uncertainty quantification through Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). We evaluate our methods on aggregated sales data derived from the M5 dataset, demonstrating superior performance compared to baseline approaches. The continuous Multi-Expert LDL achieves the best overall performance, while the Pattern-Aware LDL-MoE provides enhanced interpretability through component-wise analysis. Our frameworks successfully balance predictive accuracy with interpretability, making them suitable for real-world forecasting applications where both performance and actionable insights are crucial.

npj Digital Medicine, Published online: 26 December 2025; doi:10.1038/s41746-025-02277-8

A novel evaluation benchmark for medical LLMs illuminating safety and effectiveness in clinical domains

arXiv:2512.02471v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Cell clustering is crucial for uncovering cellular heterogeneity in single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) data by identifying cell types and marker genes. Despite its importance, benchmarks for scRNA-seq clustering methods remain fragmented, often lacking standardized protocols and failing to incorporate recent advances in artificial intelligence. To fill these gaps, we present scCluBench, a comprehensive benchmark of clustering algorithms for scRNA-seq data. First, scCluBench provides 36 scRNA-seq datasets collected from diverse public sources, covering multiple tissues, which are uniformly processed and standardized to ensure consistency for systematic evaluation and downstream analyses. To evaluate performance, we collect and reproduce a range of scRNA-seq clustering methods, including traditional, deep learning-based, graph-based, and biological foundation models. We comprehensively evaluate each method both quantitatively and qualitatively, using core performance metrics as well as visualization analyses. Furthermore, we construct representative downstream biological tasks, such as marker gene identification and cell type annotation, to further assess the practical utility. scCluBench then investigates the performance differences and applicability boundaries of various clustering models across diverse analytical tasks, systematically assessing their robustness and scalability in real-world scenarios. Overall, scCluBench offers a standardized and user-friendly benchmark for scRNA-seq clustering, with curated datasets, unified evaluation protocols, and transparent analyses, facilitating informed method selection and providing valuable insights into model generalizability and application scope.

arXiv:2510.23626v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Social media user-generated content (UGC) provides real-time, self-reported indicators of mental health conditions such as depression, offering a valuable source for predictive analytics. While prior studies integrate medical knowledge to improve prediction accuracy, they overlook the opportunity to simultaneously expand such knowledge through predictive processes. We develop a Closed-Loop Large Language Model (LLM)-Knowledge Graph framework that integrates prediction and knowledge expansion in an iterative learning cycle. In the knowledge-aware depression detection phase, the LLM jointly performs depression detection and entity extraction, while the knowledge graph represents and weights these entities to refine prediction performance. In the knowledge refinement and expansion phase, new entities, relationships, and entity types extracted by the LLM are incorporated into the knowledge graph under expert supervision, enabling continual knowledge evolution. Using large-scale UGC, the framework enhances both predictive accuracy and medical understanding. Expert evaluations confirmed the discovery of clinically meaningful symptoms, comorbidities, and social triggers complementary to existing literature. We conceptualize and operationalize prediction-through-learning and learning-through-prediction as mutually reinforcing processes, advancing both methodological and theoretical understanding in predictive analytics. The framework demonstrates the co-evolution of computational models and domain knowledge, offering a foundation for adaptive, data-driven knowledge systems applicable to other dynamic risk monitoring contexts.