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Circulating metabolites, genetics and lifestyle factors in relation to future risk of type 2 diabetes

Nat Med. 2026 Jan 14. doi: 10.1038/s41591-025-04105-8. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

The human metabolome reflects complex metabolic states affected by genetic and environmental factors. However, metabolites associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk and their determinants remain insufficiently characterized. Here we integrated blood metabolomic, genomic and lifestyle data from up to 23,634 initially T2D-free participants from ten cohorts. Of 469 metabolites examined, 235 were associated with incident T2D during up to 26 years of follow-up, including 67 associations not previously reported across bile acid, lipid, carnitine, urea cycle and arginine/proline, glycine and histidine pathways. Further genetic analyses linked these metabolites to signaling pathways and clinical traits central to T2D pathophysiology, including insulin resistance, glucose/insulin response, ectopic fat deposition, energy/lipid regulation and liver function. Lifestyle factors-particularly physical activity, obesity and diet-explained greater variations in T2D-associated versus non-associated metabolites, with specific metabolites revealed as potential mediators. Finally, a 44-metabolite signature improved T2D risk prediction beyond conventional factors. These findings provide a foundation for understanding T2D mechanisms and may inform precision prevention targeting specific metabolic pathways.

PMID:41535386 | DOI:10.1038/s41591-025-04105-8

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The heterogeneity of type 1 diabetes: implications for pathogenesis, prevention, and treatment-2024 Diabetes, Diabetes Care, and Diabetologia Expert Forum

Diabetologia. 2025 Jul 30. doi: 10.1007/s00125-025-06462-y. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

This article summarises the current understanding of the heterogeneity of type 1 diabetes from a June 2024 international Expert Forum organised by the editors of Diabetes, Diabetes Care, and Diabetologia. The Forum reviewed key factors contributing to the development and progression of type 1 diabetes and outlined specific, high-priority research questions. Knowledge gaps were identified and, notably, opportunities to harness disease heterogeneity to develop personalised therapies were outlined. Herein, we summarise our discussions and review the heterogeneity of genetic risk and immunologic and metabolic phenotypes that influence and characterise type 1 diabetes progression (presented as a palette of risk factors). We discuss how these age-related factors determine disease aggressiveness (along gradients) and describe how variable immunogenetic pathways aggregate (into networks) to affect beta cell and other pancreatic pathologies to cause clinical disease at different ages and with variable severity (described as disease-related thresholds). Heterogeneity of pathogenesis and clinical severity opens avenues to prevention and intervention, including the potential of disease-modifying immunotherapy and islet cell replacement. We conclude with a call for (1) continued research to identify more factors contributing to the disease, both overall and in specific subgroups; (2) investigations focusing on both individuals who surpass metabolic and immune thresholds and develop diabetes and those who remain disease free with the same level of immunogenetic risk; and (3) efforts to identify where the current type 1 diabetes staging system may fall short and determine how it can be improved to capture and leverage heterogeneity in prevention and intervention strategies.

PMID:40736750 | DOI:10.1007/s00125-025-06462-y

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A statistical framework for multi-trait rare variant analysis in large-scale whole-genome sequencing studies

Nat Comput Sci. 2025 Feb 7. doi: 10.1038/s43588-024-00764-8. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Large-scale whole-genome sequencing (WGS) studies have improved our understanding of the contributions of coding and noncoding rare variants to complex human traits. Leveraging association effect sizes across multiple traits in WGS rare variant association analysis can improve statistical power over single-trait analysis, and also detect pleiotropic genes and regions. Existing multi-trait methods have limited ability to perform rare variant analysis of large-scale WGS data. We propose MultiSTAAR, a statistical framework and computationally scalable analytical pipeline for functionally informed multi-trait rare variant analysis in large-scale WGS studies. MultiSTAAR accounts for relatedness, population structure and correlation among phenotypes by jointly analyzing multiple traits, and further empowers rare variant association analysis by incorporating multiple functional annotations. We applied MultiSTAAR to jointly analyze three lipid traits in 61,838 multi-ethnic samples from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) Program. We discovered and replicated new associations with lipid traits missed by single-trait analysis.

PMID:39920506 | DOI:10.1038/s43588-024-00764-8

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Genomic and phenotypic correlates of mosaic loss of chromosome Y in blood

Am J Hum Genet. 2025 Jan 6:S0002-9297(24)00456-7. doi: 10.1016/j.ajhg.2024.12.014. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Mosaic loss of Y (mLOY) is the most common somatic chromosomal alteration detected in human blood. The presence of mLOY is associated with altered blood cell counts and increased risk of Alzheimer disease, solid tumors, and other age-related diseases. We sought to gain a better understanding of genetic drivers and associated phenotypes of mLOY through analyses of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of a large set of genetically diverse males from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program. We show that haplotype-based calling methods can be used with WGS data to successfully identify mLOY events. This approach enabled us to identify differences in mLOY frequencies across populations defined by genetic similarity, revealing a higher frequency of mLOY in the European (EUR) ancestry group compared to other ancestries. We identify multiple loci associated with mLOY susceptibility and show that subsets of human hematopoietic stem cells are enriched for the activity of mLOY susceptibility variants. Finally, we found that certain alleles on chromosome Y are more likely to be lost than others in detectable mLOY clones.

PMID:39809269 | DOI:10.1016/j.ajhg.2024.12.014

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