arXiv:2608.00183v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Retrieval over financial filings is difficult because queries are short and acronym-heavy while the answer-bearing evidence sits inside long, table-dense documents. We study sparse-dense hybrid retrieval on FinDER, a benchmark of expert-annotated questions over corporate 10-K filings. Our first finding is methodological: if the retrieval unit is larger than the dense encoder's input window, the dense model never sees a large share of the labeled evidence, confounding comparison against a full-text sparse baseline. We measure this directly and reduce the imbalance with windows chosen for the encoder budget. On this corpus, fusing BM25 and a compact dense encoder improves reference-level Hit@10 by roughly 28 percent over either component, and training-free, untuned reciprocal rank fusion exceeds the equal-weight blend in an exploratory comparison. We then ask whether choosing the fusion weight per query helps: an oracle over the interpolation-weight grid shows headroom of 21.8 percent, yet none of the three lightweight adaptive routers (a score-confidence heuristic, a random forest over query features, and a ridge regressor over query embeddings) establishes a statistically reliable improvement over the fixed blend under company-grouped cross-validation with cluster-robust inference. Simple fusion is a strong baseline here, and we discuss why per-query weighting does not capture the available headroom.

arXiv:2609.09413v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Choosing a recovery process for scale-up requires connecting laboratory results with product requirements, process costs, and scale effects. We analyze records from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Computer Intelligence for Critical Element Recovery and Optimization (CICERO) workflow for autonomous selective precipitation. Active learning uses prior results to choose experiments. In a conditional retrospective benchmark with fitted models and recycled neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnet records, active learning finds the best recorded result with fewer experiments than nonadaptive space filling. Enrichment is the selected rare-earth-to-iron ratio relative to that in the feed. Adaptive policies reach the recorded enrichment maximum by 16 to 24 wells (individual experiments), versus 48. Our two-stage reconstruction ties two adaptive alternatives at 16 wells. Conditional analyses of recycled samarium-cobalt (SmCo) magnets show a Round 2 tradeoff between purity and nominal yield, the recovery fraction calculated from an assumed starting amount - NdFeB Round 1 routes differ in enrichment. Rankings for produced water from oil and gas extraction depend on phase and dilution assumptions requiring confirmation. We propose choosing batches by their expected reduction in downstream Bayes risk: the minimum expected loss among available process decisions under current beliefs. In exploratory simulations, a hybrid that filters candidates has lower estimated loss than the implemented joint search across routes and conditions. Differences involving the synthetic two-stage policy are small relative to estimation uncertainty. We outline a pre-registered prospective test under a shared loss and logging standard, requiring clarified measurements and records, a defined process decision and relevant outputs, credible economic inputs, and validation at the intended scale.

arXiv:2607.12455v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Quantitative strategy optimization remains largely manual, requiring domain experts to identify weak signals, tune risk-control rules, and repeatedly validate iterative revisions. Large language models can accelerate this process, but directly relying on them to rewrite trading strategies often introduces hallucinated edits, strategy drift, and backtest overfitting. We propose EVOQUANT, a self-Evolving Verifier-guided framework for strategy Optimization in Quantitative trading. Our method utilizes LLMs to deeply diagnose performance bottlenecks, generates semantically controlled candidate edits, selects the best strategy through a multi-stage verification pipeline, and distills optimization experience into reusable knowledge for continual self-improvement. We evaluate our method using seven representative strategies: four from the A-share market and three from the Crypto market. Experimental results show that our method significantly improves the Sharpe ratio across all tested strategies: the average test Sharpe increases from -0.298 to 0.538, and the best-performing strategy achieves a 199% relative improvement. Ablation studies and stress tests under stricter conditions further validate the effectiveness and robustness of the framework. Overall, this work transforms quantitative strategy optimization from costly manual trial and error into an automated and verifiable iterative paradigm, offering a new path for applying large language models to financial strategy research.

arXiv:2609.04028v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The geometric morphology of deposited filaments can significantly influence the structural performance and stability of 3D concrete-printed (3DCP) structures. However, most finite element (FEM)-based approaches for buildability assessment represent printed layers as simplified rectangles, potentially limiting predictive accuracy. This study proposes a geometry-informed modelling framework that integrates the deep-learning-based filament shape prediction tool ShapeGen3DCP with a layer-activation FEM approach to investigate the effect of realistic filament geometries on buildability. The framework generates geometry-aware numerical models directly from material and process parameters, eliminating the need for experimental filament characterization or computationally intensive fluid-flow simulations. Validation against experimental data and a parametric study of rectilinear walls demonstrate that extrusion parameters and the resulting filament geometry can significantly influence buildability predictions. Realistic filament representations are particularly important for free-flow deposition, whereas layer-pressing strategies are less sensitive to geometric simplifications. Among the investigated representations, an elliptical approximation provides an effective balance between geometric fidelity and modelling simplicity. When rectangular representations are preferred to enable regular computational meshes for faster simulations, defining their dimensions based on volume conservation improves prediction reliability compared with calibrating them using either the maximum filament width or the interlayer contact width. Overall, the proposed methodology demonstrates the importance of incorporating filament geometry into 3DCP simulations and provides practical guidance for selecting efficient and accurate geometric representations for buildability assessment.

arXiv:2605.24564v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Backtesting large language models (LLMs) on historical financial data is unreliable because pre-training cuts off after the events happened. An LLM trained in 2024 already "knows" which way 2018-2020 stocks moved. We name this failure parametric look-ahead bias and propose FinCAD, an inference-time adaptation of Context-Aware Decoding that suppresses an LLM's memory of historical outcomes without retraining. FinCAD pairs an adversarial bias-discovery pipeline that learns a model-specific memory-activating prior prompt with an entity- and date-adaptive rule that scales the CAD strength to per-(entity, date) memorisation, so the penalty fires on memorised in-sample dates and decays to zero out-of-sample. Across five 7-14B LLMs and five mega-cap equities, FinCAD cuts in-sample backtest returns by up to -67.1% on memorised dates while leaving 2025 out-of-sample returns within $8K and Sharpe within 0.10 of baseline, and preserves general-purpose reasoning within 1.7 pts. On an eleven-model leaderboard, it raises the in-sample / out-of-sample Spearman correlation from +0.779 to +0.846, recovering rankings that genuinely predict out-of-sample performance.

arXiv:2605.24910v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Financial Numerical Entity (FNE) understanding aims to recover the meaning of numerical mentions in financial reports. Existing studies primarily focus on concept name prediction and face two important limitations. First, labels derived from inline XBRL may contain errors because filings are usually prepared manually. Second, other important FNE attributes, such as reporting-time relation, measurement scale, and accounting sign, are less emphasized. We propose \textbf{NO}ise-\textbf{R}obust Tagging for Rich Financial Numerical Entity \textbf{A}ttributes (\textsc{NORA}) to address these gaps. NORA uses task-aware instance-specific weighting to attenuate the influence of noisy labels during training, and we further propose the Neighborhood Prior-adjusted KNN (NPK) filtering method for more reliable evaluation on real-world noisy test sets. In addition, we construct a large-scale benchmark containing 6.6 million instances with multi-attribute labels and filing metadata. Experiments show that \textsc{NORA} performs strongly compared with state-of-the-art noisy-label baselines, including Co-teaching, Mixup, SSR, and SelfMix. Moreover, NORA is robust under both unfiltered and noise-filtered test settings. It achieves the best Accuracy, Macro F1, and Weighted F1 for concept name and time-relation prediction, while remaining competitive on scale and sign prediction. These results demonstrate the value of jointly modeling rich FNE attributes while accounting for label noise in real-world financial filings.

arXiv:2605.25151v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models are increasingly used as behavioral simulators, but it remains unclear when their outputs reflect human-like cognitive mechanisms rather than prompt-sensitive surface patterns. We study this question through the realization effect, a well-characterized finding in behavioral economics in which risk-taking differs systematically after paper versus realized gains and losses. We evaluate LLM behavior at three levels: prompt-only behavioral sensitivity, linear readout of internal representations, and causal control via activation steering. Prompt-only results show systematic condition sensitivity, but the directional pattern does not reproduce human realization-effect predictions. Gemma's residual stream contains a linearly decodable realization-status signal at layer 18 that generalizes to held-out prompts. Steering along this direction does not, however, reliably shift downstream risk choices, a null result that holds across positive scales and in a negative sign-symmetry run. Behavioral sensitivity, latent readout, and causal control are three distinct properties that do not automatically co-occur, and successful latent readout is insufficient evidence that a model behaviorally relies on a representation during downstream decision-making.

arXiv:2605.25717v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Most of the world's offshore wind resource lies in waters too deep for fixed-bottom foundations, making floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) essential for deep-water deployment. As the industry scales toward $22$ MW class designs, tower fatigue becomes increasingly critical because larger structures amplify the coupled aero-hydro-servo-elastic loads induced by continuous wind and wave excitation. Accurate fatigue-damage prediction is therefore central to certification, design optimization, and cost reduction. Yet the field lacks a shared surrogate benchmark: studies report different simulations, splits, and metrics, making methods difficult to compare. We present FLOATBench, a public tabular benchmark with $582{,}120$ per-section fatigue-damage labels across three $22$ MW FOWT tower geometries, derived from $19{,}404$ high-fidelity OpenFAST simulations across the three towers ($6{,}468$ per tower: $1{,}078$ aligned wind/wave operating points $\times$ six turbulence seeds), labeled at $30$ cross-sections per tower. FLOATBench includes a regime-aware alpha-shape partition of the joint wind/wave operating envelope, stratifying test points into in-train, interpolation, and extrapolation regimes. It is paired with a reproducible evaluation harness covering three protocol levels: random validation (E1), within-tower regime-aware evaluation (E2), and cross-tower transfer (E3). The regime-aware protocol reveals rank shifts between global and extrapolation performance that random-split leaderboards cannot detect. To the authors' knowledge, FLOATBench is the first FOWT fatigue benchmark for tabular surrogate modeling, and offers an evaluation protocol that generalizes to engineering surrogates defined over physical operating envelopes. Dataset and code available at: https://github.com/Joao97ribeiro/FLOATBench.

arXiv:2605.25115v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce "Courant", a Perceiver-based encoder-processor-decoder surrogate model that has latent features exhibiting adaptive specialization and local support in the physical space, enabling functionality akin to an adaptive hp-refinement scheme, an attribute that is highly desirable in traditional numerical solvers and scientific machine learning broadly. The proposed architecture combines a shared random Fourier feature coordinate embedding, state-adapted latent queries, and a light-weight decoder. Courant is trained end-to-end with steady or transient simulation data and only a standard L_2 prediction loss in the physical space, achieving competitive accuracy on benchmarks. We demonstrate that Courant's inductive biases yield latents that are interpretable by design: they develop multiscale geometric specialization in the simulation domain and track coherent structures in the time-dependent case, acting analogously to time-evolving spatial basis functions and allowing for decoding a compact, geometry-anchored, partition-of-unity-like decomposition of the simulated field.

arXiv:2511.04556v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Urban flooding triggered by intense rainfall is becoming increasingly frequent and widespread. While flood prediction and monitoring in high spatio-temporal resolution are desired, practical constraints in time, budget, and technology hinder its full implementation. How to monitor urban drainage networks and predict flow conditions under constrained resources is a major challenge. To address this, we introduced a data-driven sparse sensing (DSS) approach, demonstrated via a digital-twin of the Woodland catchment in Duluth, Minnesota. Specifically, we coupled EPA-SWMM with singular value decomposition and QR factorization-based sensor selection to optimize monitoring locations for system-level flow reconstruction. An ensemble of SWMM simulations, driven by diverse scenarios, provided the necessary hydraulic data to extract the reduced basis and identify informative sensor locations. Cross-event validation showed that three strategically placed sensors among 77 candidate nodes achieved a mean system-level Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.949 across observed storm events. The QR-selected sensor sets were benchmarked against reference sensor configurations obtained from exhaustive searches and Monte Carlo random-placements. This comparison further showed that flow reconstruction based on QR-selected sensors closely tracked the exhaustive optimum while substantially outperforming random placements. We further evaluated the framework's robustness by introducing multiplicative Gaussian noise and simulating individual sensor failures. While the model is relatively resilient to noise, the impact of sensor dropouts depends heavily on the number of sensors allocated and their specific locations.

arXiv:2512.05402v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Bitcoin mining hardware acquisition requires strategic timing due to volatile markets, rapid technological obsolescence, and protocol-driven revenue cycles. Despite mining's evolution into a capital-intensive industry, there is little guidance on when to purchase new Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) hardware, and no prior computational frameworks address this decision problem. We address this gap by formulating hardware acquisition as a time series classification task, predicting whether purchasing ASIC machines yields profitable (Return on Investment (ROI) >= 1), marginal (0

arXiv:2604.03976v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prior work on trustworthy AI emphasizes model-internal properties such as bias mitigation, adversarial robustness, and interpretability. As AI systems evolve into autonomous agents deployed in open environments and increasingly connected to payments or assets, the operational meaning of trust shifts to end-to-end outcomes: whether an agent completes tasks, follows user intent, and avoids failures that cause material or psychological harm. These risks are fundamentally product-level and cannot be eliminated by technical safeguards alone because agent behavior is inherently stochastic. To address this gap between model-level reliability and user-facing assurance, we propose a complementary framework based on risk management. Drawing inspiration from financial underwriting, we introduce the \textbf{Agentic Risk Standard (ARS)}, a payment settlement standard for AI-mediated transactions. ARS integrates risk assessment, underwriting, and compensation into a single transaction framework that protects users when interacting with agents. Under ARS, users receive predefined and contractually enforceable compensation in cases of execution failure, misalignment, or unintended outcomes. This shifts trust from an implicit expectation about model behavior to an explicit, measurable, and enforceable product guarantee. We also present a simulation study analyzing the social benefits of applying ARS to agentic transactions. ARS's implementation can be found at https://github.com/t54-labs/AgenticRiskStandard.

arXiv:2604.04274v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal inference is central to scientific discovery, yet choosing appropriate methods remains challenging because of the complexity of both statistical methodology and real-world data. Inspired by the success of artificial intelligence in accelerating scientific discovery, we introduce InferenceEvolve, an evolutionary framework that uses large language models to discover and iteratively refine causal methods. Across widely used benchmarks, InferenceEvolve yields estimators that consistently outperform established baselines: against 58 human submissions in a recent community competition, our best evolved estimator lay on the Pareto frontier across two evaluation metrics. We also developed robust proxy objectives for settings without semi-synthetic outcomes, with competitive results. Analysis of the evolutionary trajectories shows that agents progressively discover sophisticated strategies tailored to unrevealed data-generating mechanisms. These findings suggest that language-model-guided evolution can optimize structured scientific programs such as causal inference, even when outcomes are only partially observed.

arXiv:2604.03409v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Generative artificial intelligence offers a new paradigm to design matter in high-dimensional spaces. However, its underlying mechanisms remain difficult to interpret and limit adoption in computational mechanics. This gap is striking because its core tools-diffusion, stochastic differential equations, and inverse problems-are fundamental to the mechanics of materials. Here we show that diffusion-based generative AI and computational mechanics are rooted in the same principles. We illustrate this connection using a three-ingredient burger as a minimal benchmark for material design in a low-dimensional space, where both forward and reverse diffusion admit analytical solutions: Markov chains with Bayesian inversion in the discrete case and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with score-based reversal in the continuous case. We extend this framework to a high-dimensional design space with 146 ingredients and 8.9x10^43 possible configurations, where analytical solutions become intractable. We therefore learn the discrete and continuous reverse processes using neural network models that infer inverse dynamics from data. We train the models on only 2,260 recipes and generate one million samples that capture the statistical structure of the data, including ingredient prevalence and quantitative composition. We further generate five new burgers and validate them in a restaurant-based sensory study with 100 participants, where three of the AI-designed burgers outperform the classical Big Mac in overall liking, flavor, and texture. These results establish diffusion-based generative modeling as a physically grounded approach to design in high-dimensional spaces. They position generative AI as a natural extension of computational mechanics, with applications from burgers to matter, and establish a path toward data-driven, physics-informed generative design.

arXiv:2511.14130v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: With the rapid progress of large language models (LLMs), financial information retrieval has become a critical industrial application. Extracting task-relevant information from lengthy financial filings is essential for both operational and analytical decision-making. We present PRISM, a training-free framework that integrates refined system prompting, in-context learning (ICL), and lightweight multi-agent coordination for document and chunk ranking tasks. Our primary contribution is a systematic empirical study of when each component provides value: prompt engineering delivers consistent performance with minimal overhead, ICL enhances reasoning for complex queries when applied selectively, and multi-agent systems show potential primarily with larger models and careful architectural design. Extensive ablation studies across FinAgentBench, FiQA-2018, and FinanceBench reveal that simpler configurations often outperform complex multi-agent pipelines, providing practical guidance for practitioners. Our best configuration achieves an NDCG@5 of 0.71818 on FinAgentBench, ranking third while being the only training-free approach in the top three. We provide comprehensive feasibility analyses covering latency, token usage, and cost trade-offs to support deployment decisions. The source code is released at https://bit.ly/prism-ailens.

arXiv:2512.13168v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce FinWorkBench (a.k.a. Finch), a benchmark for evaluating agents on real-world, enterprise-grade finance and accounting workflows that interleave data entry, structuring, formatting, web search, cross-file retrieval, calculation, modeling, validation, translation, visualization, and reporting. Finch is built from authentic enterprise workspaces from Enron (15,000 files and 500,000 emails) and other financial institutions spanning 2000 to 2025, preserving the in-the-wild messiness of multimodal artifacts such as tables and charts across diverse domains including budgeting, trading, and asset management. We propose a workflow construction process that combines LLM-assisted mining of workflows from authentic enterprise environments with expert annotation. Specifically, we use LLM-assisted, expert-verified derivation of workflows from real-world email threads and spreadsheet version histories, followed by meticulous workflow annotation requiring more than 700 hours of expert effort. This process yields 172 composite workflows with 384 tasks, involving 1,710 spreadsheets with 27 million cells, along with PDFs and other artifacts, capturing the intrinsically messy, long-horizon, knowledge-intensive, and collaborative nature of enterprise work. We conduct both human and automated evaluations of frontier AI systems, including GPT 5.1, Claude Sonnet/Opus 4.5, Gemini 3 Pro, Grok 4, and Qwen 3 Max. GPT 5.1 Pro spends an average of 16.8 minutes per workflow yet passes only 38.4% of workflows. Comprehensive case studies further highlight the challenges that real-world enterprise workflows pose for AI agents.

arXiv:2506.09749v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In complex engineering systems, the dependencies among components or development activities are often modeled and analyzed using Design Structure Matrix (DSM). Reorganizing elements within a DSM to minimize feedback loops and enhance modularity or process efficiency constitutes a challenging combinatorial optimization (CO) problem in engineering design and operations. As problem sizes increase and dependency networks become more intricate, traditional optimization methods that rely solely on mathematical heuristics often fail to capture the contextual nuances and struggle to deliver effective solutions. In this study, we explore the potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) to address such CO problems by leveraging their capabilities for advanced reasoning and contextual understanding. We propose a novel LLM-based framework that integrates network topology with contextual domain knowledge for iterative optimization of DSM sequencing-a common CO problem. Experiments on various DSM cases demonstrate that our method consistently achieves faster convergence and superior solution quality compared to both stochastic and deterministic baselines. Notably, incorporating contextual domain knowledge significantly enhances optimization performance regardless of the chosen LLM backbone. These findings highlight the potential of LLMs to solve complex engineering CO problems by combining semantic and mathematical reasoning. This approach paves the way towards a new paradigm in LLM-based engineering design optimization.

arXiv:2510.16066v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Despite accounting for 96.1% of all businesses in Malaysia, access to financing remains one of the most persistent challenges faced by Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). Newly established businesses are often excluded from formal credit markets as traditional underwriting approaches rely heavily on credit bureau data. This study investigates the potential of bank statement data as an alternative data source for credit assessment to promote financial inclusion in emerging markets. First, we propose a cash flow-based underwriting pipeline where we utilize bank statement data for end-to-end data extraction and machine learning credit scoring. Second, we introduce a novel dataset of 611 loan applicants from a Malaysian consulting firm. Third, we develop and evaluate credit scoring models based on application information and bank transaction-derived features. Empirical results demonstrate that incorporating bank statement features yields substantial improvements, with our best model achieving an AUROC of 0.806 on validation set, representing a 24.6% improvement over models using application information only. Finally, we will release the anonymized bank transaction dataset to facilitate further research on MSME financial inclusion within Malaysia's emerging economy.

arXiv:2603.29176v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Parkinson's disease (PD) affects over ten million people worldwide. Although temporal interference (TI) and deep brain stimulation (DBS) are promising therapies, inter-individual variability limits empirical treatment selection, increasing non-negligible surgical risk and cost. Previous explorations either resort to limited statistical biomarkers that are insufficient to characterize variability, or employ AI-driven methods which is prone to overfitting and opacity. We bridge this gap with a pretraining-finetuning framework to predict outcomes directly from resting-state fMRI. Critically, a generative virtual brain foundation model, pretrained on a collective dataset (2707 subjects, 5621 sessions) to capture universal disorder patterns, was finetuned on PD cohorts receiving TI (n=51) or DBS (n=55) to yield individualized virtual brains with high fidelity to empirical functional connectivity (r=0.935). By constructing counterfactual estimations between pathological and healthy neural states within these personalized models, we predicted clinical responses (TI: AUPR=0.853; DBS: AUPR=0.915), substantially outperforming baselines. External and prospective validations (n=14, n=11) highlight the feasibility of clinical translation. Moreover, our framework provides state-dependent regional patterns linked to response, offering hypothesis-generating mechanistic insights.

arXiv:2603.28787v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Traditional liquid identification instruments are often unavailable to the general public. This paper shows the feasibility of identifying unknown liquids with commercial lightweight devices, such as a smartphone. The key insight is that different liquid molecules have different viscosity coefficients and therefore must overcome different energy barriers during relative motion. With this intuition in mind, we introduce a novel model that measures liquids' viscosity based on active vibration. However, building a robust system using built-in smartphone accelerometers is challenging. Practical issues include under-sampling, self-interference, and the impact of liquid-volume changes. Instead of machine learning, we tackle these issues through multiple signal processing stages to reconstruct the original signals and cancel out the interference. Our approach estimates liquid viscosity with a mean relative error of 2.9% and distinguishes 30 types of liquids with an average accuracy of 95.47%.