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Explainable Retinal Imaging for Prediction of Multi-Organ Dysfunction in Type 2 Diabetes

arXiv:2605.24912v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasingly recognised as a systemic disease characterised by coordinated dysfunction across metabolic, renal, lipid, and inflammatory pathways. Existing clinical assessments often fail to capture this multi-dimensional burden. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study of 1,195 patients using routinely collected laboratory biomarkers. System-level abnormality indices were constructed to quantify organ-specific dysfunction, and multi-system involvement was defined as abnormalities in two or more systems. Supervised machine learning models, including logistic regression, random forest, and gradient boosting, were trained to predict multi-system dysregulation. Model interpretability was achieved using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Results: The gradient boosting model demonstrated near-perfect discrimination (AUC = 1.000), significantly outperforming logistic regression (AUC = 0.925). Feature attribution analysis revealed that hyperglycaemia, renal impairment, dyslipidaemia, and inflammation were the dominant drivers of multi-system risk. Dose-response relationships observed in partial dependence analyses further supported the biological plausibility of model predictions. Conclusion: This study presents an interpretable, data-driven framework for quantifying systemic disease burden in T2DM. By linking routine biomarkers to multi-organ dysfunction, our approach provides both predictive accuracy and mechanistic insight, offering potential for improved risk stratification and precision medicine in diabetes care. The data and code used in this study are openly available on GitHub at: https://github.com/MiniHanWang/Type-2-Diabetes-1.git
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Predictive Analytics for Foot Ulcers Using Time-Series Temperature and Pressure Data

arXiv:2603.12278v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) are a severe complication of diabetes, often resulting in significant morbidity. This paper presents a predictive analytics framework utilizing time-series data captured by wearable foot sensors -- specifically NTC thin-film thermocouples for temperature measurement and FlexiForce pressure sensors for plantar load monitoring. Data was collected from healthy subjects walking on an instrumented pathway. Unsupervised machine learning algorithms, Isolation Forest and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), were applied to detect anomalies that may indicate early ulcer risk. Through rigorous data preprocessing and targeted feature engineering, physiologic patterns were extracted to identify subtle changes in foot temperature and pressure. Results demonstrate Isolation Forest is sensitive to micro-anomalies, while KNN is effective in flagging extreme deviations, albeit at a higher false-positive rate. Strong correlations between temperature and pressure readings support combined sensor monitoring for improved predictive accuracy. These findings provide a basis for real-time diabetic foot health surveillance, aiming to facilitate earlier intervention and reduce DFU incidence.
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