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ConfHit: Conformal Generative Design with Oracle Free Guarantees

arXiv:2603.07371v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: The success of deep generative models in scientific discovery requires not only the ability to generate novel candidates but also reliable guarantees that these candidates indeed satisfy desired properties. Recent conformal-prediction methods offer a path to such guarantees, but its application to generative modeling in drug discovery is limited by budget constraints, lack of oracle access, and distribution shift. To this end, we introduce ConfHit, a distribution-free framework that provides validity guarantees under these conditions. ConfHit formalizes two central questions: (i) Certification: whether a generated batch can be guaranteed to contain at least one hit with a user-specified confidence level, and (ii) Design: whether the generation can be refined to a compact set without weakening this guarantee. ConfHit leverages weighted exchangeability between historical and generated samples to eliminate the need for an experimental oracle, constructs multiple-sample density-ratio weighted conformal p-value to quantify statistical confidence in hits, and proposes a nested testing procedure to certify and refine candidate sets of multiple generated samples while maintaining statistical guarantees. Across representative generative molecule design tasks and a broad range of methods, ConfHit consistently delivers valid coverage guarantees at multiple confidence levels while maintaining compact certified sets, establishing a principled and reliable framework for generative modeling.
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Adaptation of Agentic AI: A Survey of Post-Training, Memory, and Skills

arXiv:2512.16301v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language model (LLM) agents are moving beyond prompting alone. ChatGPT marked the rise of general-purpose LLM assistants, DeepSeek showed that on-policy reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards can improve reasoning and tool use, and OpenClaw highlights a newer direction in which agents accumulate persistent memory and reusable skills. Yet the research landscape remains fragmented across post-training, retrieval, memory, and skill systems. This survey studies these developments under a single notion of \emph{adaptation}: improving an agent, its tools, or their interaction after pretraining. We organize the field with a four-paradigm framework spanning agent adaptation and tool adaptation. On the agent side, A1 (tool-execution-signaled) and A2 (agent-output-signaled) improve the agent itself through supervised fine-tuning, preference optimization, and reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards. On the tool side, T1 (agent-agnostic) provides reusable pre-trained modules any agent can call, while T2 (agent-supervised) uses the agent's outputs to train memory systems, skill libraries, or lightweight subagents. Using this framework, we review post-training methods, adaptive memory architectures, and agent skills; compare their trade-offs in cost, flexibility, and generalization; and summarize evaluation practices across deep research, software development, computer use, and drug discovery. We conclude by outlining open problems in agent-tool co-adaptation, continual learning, safety, and efficient deployment.
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How Well Do Multimodal Models Reason on ECG Signals?

arXiv:2603.00312v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While multimodal large language models offer a promising solution to the "black box" nature of health AI by generating interpretable reasoning traces, verifying the validity of these traces remains a critical challenge. Existing evaluation methods are either unscalable, relying on manual clinician review, or superficial, utilizing proxy metrics (e.g. QA) that fail to capture the semantic correctness of clinical logic. In this work, we introduce a reproducible framework for evaluating reasoning in ECG signals. We propose decomposing reasoning into two distinct, components: (i) Perception, the accurate identification of patterns within the raw signal, and (ii) Deduction, the logical application of domain knowledge to those patterns. To evaluate Perception, we employ an agentic framework that generates code to empirically verify the temporal structures described in the reasoning trace. To evaluate Deduction, we measure the alignment of the model's logic against a structured database of established clinical criteria in a retrieval-based approach. This dual-verification method enables the scalable assessment of "true" reasoning capabilities.
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Bridging the Reproducibility Divide: Open Source Software's Role in Standardizing Healthcare AI

arXiv:2603.03367v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Our analysis of recent AI4H publications reveals that, despite a trend toward utilizing open datasets and sharing modeling code, 74% of AI4H papers still rely on private datasets or do not share their code. This is especially concerning in healthcare applications, where trust is essential. Furthermore, inconsistent and poorly documented data preprocessing pipelines result in variable model performance reports, even for identical tasks and datasets, making it challenging to evaluate the true effectiveness of AI models. Despite the challenges posed by the reproducibility crisis, addressing these issues through open practices offers substantial benefits. For instance, while the reproducibility mandate adds extra effort to research and publication, it significantly enhances the impact of the work. Our analysis shows that papers that used both public datasets and shared code received, on average, 110% more citations than those that do neither--more than doubling the citation count. Given the clear benefits of enhancing reproducibility, it is imperative for the AI4H community to take concrete steps to overcome existing barriers. The community should promote open science practices, establish standardized guidelines for data preprocessing, and develop robust benchmarks. Tackling these challenges through open-source development can improve reproducibility, which is essential for ensuring that AI models are safe, effective, and beneficial for patient care. This approach will help build more trustworthy AI systems that can be integrated into healthcare settings, ultimately contributing to better patient outcomes and advancing the field of medicine.
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Making Conformal Predictors Robust in Healthcare Settings: a Case Study on EEG Classification

arXiv:2602.19483v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Quantifying uncertainty in clinical predictions is critical for high-stakes diagnosis tasks. Conformal prediction offers a principled approach by providing prediction sets with theoretical coverage guarantees. However, in practice, patient distribution shifts violate the i.i.d. assumptions underlying standard conformal methods, leading to poor coverage in healthcare settings. In this work, we evaluate several conformal prediction approaches on EEG seizure classification, a task with known distribution shift challenges and label uncertainty. We demonstrate that personalized calibration strategies can improve coverage by over 20 percentage points while maintaining comparable prediction set sizes. Our implementation is available via PyHealth, an open-source healthcare AI framework: https://github.com/sunlabuiuc/PyHealth.
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