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Confidence Calibration under Ambiguous Ground Truth

arXiv:2603.22879v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Confidence calibration assumes a unique ground-truth label per input, yet this assumption fails wherever annotators genuinely disagree. Post-hoc calibrators fitted on majority-voted labels, the standard single-label targets used in practice, can appear well-calibrated under conventional evaluation yet remain substantially miscalibrated against the underlying annotator distribution. We show that this failure is structural: under simplifying assumptions, Temperature Scaling is biased toward temperatures that underestimate annotator uncertainty, with true-label miscalibration increasing monotonically with annotation entropy. To address this, we develop a family of ambiguity-aware post-hoc calibrators that optimise proper scoring rules against the full label distribution and require no model retraining. Our methods span progressively weaker annotation requirements: Dirichlet-Soft leverages the full annotator distribution and achieves the best overall calibration quality across settings; Monte Carlo Temperature Scaling with a single annotation per example (MCTS S=1) matches full-distribution calibration across all benchmarks, demonstrating that pre-aggregated label distributions are unnecessary; and Label-Smooth Temperature Scaling (LS-TS) operates with voted labels alone by constructing data-driven pseudo-soft targets from the model's own confidence. Experiments on four benchmarks with real multi-annotator distributions (CIFAR-10H, ChaosNLI) and clinically-informed synthetic annotations (ISIC~2019, DermaMNIST) show that Dirichlet-Soft reduces true-label ECE by 55-87% relative to Temperature Scaling, while LS-TS reduces ECE by 9-77% without any annotator data.
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3DCity-LLM: Empowering Multi-modality Large Language Models for 3D City-scale Perception and Understanding

arXiv:2603.23447v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: While multi-modality large language models excel in object-centric or indoor scenarios, scaling them to 3D city-scale environments remains a formidable challenge. To bridge this gap, we propose 3DCity-LLM, a unified framework designed for 3D city-scale vision-language perception and understanding. 3DCity-LLM employs a coarse-to-fine feature encoding strategy comprising three parallel branches for target object, inter-object relationship, and global scene. To facilitate large-scale training, we introduce 3DCity-LLM-1.2M dataset that comprises approximately 1.2 million high-quality samples across seven representative task categories, ranging from fine-grained object analysis to multi-faceted scene planning. This strictly quality-controlled dataset integrates explicit 3D numerical information and diverse user-oriented simulations, enriching the question-answering diversity and realism of urban scenarios. Furthermore, we apply a multi-dimensional protocol based on text-similarity metrics and LLM-based semantic assessment to ensure faithful and comprehensive evaluations for all methods. Extensive experiments on two benchmarks demonstrate that 3DCity-LLM significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods, offering a promising and meaningful direction for advancing spatial reasoning and urban intelligence. The source code and dataset are available at https://github.com/SYSU-3DSTAILab/3D-City-LLM.
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MemReward: Graph-Based Experience Memory for LLM Reward Prediction with Limited Labels

arXiv:2603.19310v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have been driven by reinforcement-learning-based post-training, which requires multiple rollouts with rewards. However, obtaining ground truth labels for the calculation of rewards on a scale often requires expensive human labeling or time-consuming verification procedures. For instance, evaluating mathematical proofs demands expert review, and open-ended question answering lacks definitive ground truth. When ground truth labels are scarce, the effectiveness of reinforcement learning fine-tuning can be constrained. We introduce MemReward, a graph-based experience memory framework: an initial LLM policy generates rollouts for each query, each comprising a thinking process and a final answer, and these rollouts are stored as experience memory. Queries, thinking processes, and answers form nodes in a heterogeneous graph with similarity and structural edges; a GNN trained on labeled rollouts propagates rewards to unlabeled rollouts during online optimization. Experiments on Qwen2.5-3B and 1.5B in mathematics, question answering, and code generation demonstrate that MemReward, with only 20% labels, achieves 97.3% of Oracle performance on 3B and 96.6% on 1.5B, surpassing Oracle in out-of-domain tasks. Performance scales smoothly with label budget, reaching 99.4% of Oracle at 70% labels.
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A clinical environment simulator for dynamic AI evaluation

Nature Medicine, Published online: 12 March 2026; doi:10.1038/s41591-026-04252-6

The authors propose a framework for clinical AI evaluation within simulated digital hospital environments that capture the evolving constraints, and cascading effects, of clinical decisions.
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