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Scaling Laws in the Tiny Regime: How Small Models Change Their Mistakes

arXiv:2603.07365v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Neural scaling laws describe how model performance improves as a power law with size, but existing work focuses on models above 100M parameters. The sub-20M regime -- where TinyML and edge AI operate -- remains unexamined. We train 90 models (22K--19.8M parameters) across two architectures (plain ConvNet, MobileNetV2) on CIFAR-100, varying width while holding depth and training fixed. Both follow approximate power laws in error rate: $\alpha = 0.156 \pm 0.002$ (ScaleCNN) and $\alpha = 0.106 \pm 0.001$ (MobileNetV2) across five seeds. Since prior work fit cross-entropy loss rather than error rate, direct exponent comparison is approximate; with that caveat, these are 1.4--2x steeper than $\alpha \approx 0.076$ for large language models. The power law does not hold uniformly: local exponents decay with scale, and MobileNetV2 saturates at 19.8M parameters ($\alpha_{\mathrm{local}} = 0.006$). Error structure also changes. Jaccard overlap between error sets of the smallest and largest ScaleCNN is only 0.35 (25 seed pairs, $\pm 0.004$) -- compression changes which inputs are misclassified, not merely how many. Small models concentrate capacity on easy classes (Gini: 0.26 at 22K vs. 0.09 at 4.7M) while abandoning the hardest (bottom-5 accuracy: 10% vs. 53%). Counter to expectation, the smallest models are best calibrated (ECE = 0.013 vs. peak 0.110 at mid-size). Aggregate accuracy is therefore misleading for edge deployment; validation must happen at the target model size.
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Graph-Instructed Neural Networks for parametric problems with varying boundary conditions

arXiv:2603.08304v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This work addresses the accurate and efficient simulation of physical phenomena governed by parametric Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) characterized by varying boundary conditions, where parametric instances modify not only the physics of the problem but also the imposition of boundary constraints on the computational domain. In such scenarios, classical Galerkin projection-based reduced order techniques encounter a fundamental bottleneck. Parametric boundaries typically necessitate a re-formulation of the discrete problem for each new configuration, and often, these approaches are unsuitable for real-time applications. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel methodology based on Graph-Instructed Neural Networks (GINNs). The GINN framework effectively learns the mapping between the parametric description of the computational domain and the corresponding PDE solution. Our results demonstrate that the proposed GINN-based models, can efficiently represent highly complex parametric PDEs, serving as a robust and scalable asset for several applied-oriented settings when compared with fully connected architectures.
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Retrieval-Augmented Anatomical Guidance for Text-to-CT Generation

arXiv:2603.08305v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Text-conditioned generative models for volumetric medical imaging provide semantic control but lack explicit anatomical guidance, often resulting in outputs that are spatially ambiguous or anatomically inconsistent. In contrast, structure-driven methods ensure strong anatomical consistency but typically assume access to ground-truth annotations, which are unavailable when the target image is to be synthesized. We propose a retrieval-augmented approach for Text-to-CT generation that integrates semantic and anatomical information under a realistic inference setting. Given a radiology report, our method retrieves a semantically related clinical case using a 3D vision-language encoder and leverages its associated anatomical annotation as a structural proxy. This proxy is injected into a text-conditioned latent diffusion model via a ControlNet branch, providing coarse anatomical guidance while maintaining semantic flexibility. Experiments on the CT-RATE dataset show that retrieval-augmented generation improves image fidelity and clinical consistency compared to text-only baselines, while additionally enabling explicit spatial controllability, a capability inherently absent in such approaches. Further analysis highlights the importance of retrieval quality, with semantically aligned proxies yielding consistent gains across all evaluation axes. This work introduces a principled and scalable mechanism to bridge semantic conditioning and anatomical plausibility in volumetric medical image synthesis. Code will be released.
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Decomposing Physician Disagreement in HealthBench

arXiv:2602.22758v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We decompose physician disagreement in the HealthBench medical AI evaluation dataset to understand where variance resides and what observable features can explain it. Rubric identity accounts for 15.8% of met/not-met label variance but only 3.6-6.9% of disagreement variance; physician identity accounts for just 2.4%. The dominant 81.8% case-level residual is not reduced by HealthBench's metadata labels (z = -0.22, p = 0.83), normative rubric language (pseudo R^2 = 1.2%), medical specialty (0/300 Tukey pairs significant), surface-feature triage (AUC = 0.58), or embeddings (AUC = 0.485). Disagreement follows an inverted-U with completion quality (AUC = 0.689), confirming physicians agree on clearly good or bad outputs but split on borderline cases. Physician-validated uncertainty categories reveal that reducible uncertainty (missing context, ambiguous phrasing) more than doubles disagreement odds (OR = 2.55, p
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CauKer: Classification Time Series Foundation Models Can Be Pretrained on Synthetic Data

arXiv:2508.02879v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently gained significant attention due to their strong zero-shot capabilities and widespread real-world applications. Such models typically require a computationally costly pre-training on large-scale, carefully curated collections of real-world sequences. To allow for a sample-efficient pre-training of TSFMs, we propose \textsc{CauKer}, a novel algorithm designed to generate diverse, causally coherent synthetic time series with realistic trends, seasonality, and nonlinear interactions. \textsc{CauKer} combines Gaussian Process (GP) kernel composition with Structural Causal Models (SCM) to produce data for sample-efficient pre-training of state-of-the-art classification TSFMs having different architectures and following different pre-training approaches. Additionally, our experiments reveal that \textsc{CauKer}-generated datasets exhibit clear scaling laws for both dataset size (10K to 10M samples) and model capacity (1M to 783M parameters), unlike real-world datasets, which display irregular scaling behavior. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/ShifengXIE/CauKer.
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Stable Multi-Drone GNSS Tracking System for Marine Robots

arXiv:2511.18694v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Stable and accurate tracking is essential for marine robotics, yet Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals vanish immediately below the sea surface. Traditional alternatives suffer from error accumulation, high computational demands, or infrastructure dependence. In this work, we present a multi-drone GNSS-based tracking system for surface and near-surface marine robots. Our approach combines efficient visual detection, lightweight multi-object tracking, GNSS-based triangulation, and a confidence-weighted Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to provide stable GNSS estimation in real time. We further introduce a cross-drone tracking ID alignment algorithm that enforces global consistency across views, enabling robust multi-robot tracking with cooperative aerial coverage. We validate our system in diversified complex settings to show the accuracy and robustness of the proposed algorithm.
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Meta-RL Induces Exploration in Language Agents

arXiv:2512.16848v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reinforcement learning (RL) has enabled the training of large language model (LLM) agents to interact with the environment and to solve multi-turn long-horizon tasks. However, the RL-trained agents often struggle in tasks that require active exploration and fail to efficiently adapt from trial-and-error experiences. In this paper, we present LaMer, a general Meta-RL framework that enables LLM agents to actively explore and learn from the environment feedback at test time. LaMer consists of two key components: (i) a cross-episode training framework to encourage exploration and long-term rewards optimization; and (ii) in-context policy adaptation via reflection, allowing the agent to adapt their policy from task feedback signal without gradient update. Experiments across diverse environments show that LaMer significantly improves performance over RL baselines, with 11%, 14%, and 19% performance gains on Sokoban, MineSweeper and Webshop, respectively. Moreover, LaMer also demonstrates better generalization to more challenging or previously unseen tasks compared to the RL-trained agents. Overall, our results demonstrate that Meta-RL provides a principled approach to induce exploration in language agents, enabling more robust adaptation to novel environments through learned exploration strategies.
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Continuous-Flow Data-Rate-Aware CNN Inference on FPGA

arXiv:2601.19940v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Among hardware accelerators for deep-learning inference, data flow implementations offer low latency and high throughput capabilities. In these architectures, each neuron is mapped to a dedicated hardware unit, making them well-suited for field-programmable gate array (FPGA) implementation. Previous unrolled implementations mostly focus on fully connected networks because of their simplicity, although it is well known that convolutional neural networks (CNNs) require fewer computations for the same accuracy. When observing the data flow in CNNs, pooling layers and convolutional layers with a stride larger than one, the number of data at their output is reduced with respect to their input. This data reduction strongly affects the data rate in a fully parallel implementation, making hardware units heavily underutilized unless it is handled properly. This work addresses this issue by analyzing the data flow of CNNs and presents a novel approach to designing data-rate-aware, continuous-flow CNN architectures. The proposed approach ensures a high hardware utilization close to 100% by interleaving low data rate signals and sharing hardware units, as well as using the right parallelization to achieve the throughput of a fully parallel implementation. The results show that a significant amount of the arithmetic logic can be saved, which allows implementing complex CNNs like MobileNet on a single FPGA with high throughput.
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