arXiv:2603.07438v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Regulatory stress testing requires projecting credit losses under hypothetical macroeconomic scenarios -- a fundamentally causal question typically treated as a prediction problem. We propose a framework for policy-path counterfactual inference in panels that transparently separates what can be learned from data from what requires assumptions about confounding. Our approach has four components: (i) observational identification of path-conditional means via iterated regression, enabling continuous macro-path contrasts without requiring a control group; (ii) causal set identification under bounded confounding, yielding sharp identified sets with interpretable breakdown values that communicate robustness in a single number; (iii) an oracle inequality showing that recursive rollout error is governed by a horizon-dependent amplification factor, providing a concrete answer to how far ahead one can reliably predict under stress; and (iv) importance-weighted conformal calibration bands with diagnostics that quantify extrapolation cost and trigger abstention when coverage guarantees degrade. The final output is a three-layer uncertainty decomposition that cleanly separates estimation uncertainty from confounding uncertainty. We validate all results through simulation and semi-synthetic experiments with real unemployment data, including a Covid retrospective demonstrating the framework's diagnostic value under extreme scenarios.

arXiv:2603.07728v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) such as GPT and Gemini have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in contextual understanding and reasoning. The strong performance of LLMs has sparked growing interest in leveraging them to automate tasks traditionally dependent on human expertise. Recently, LLMs have been integrated into intelligent agents capable of operating structural analysis software (e.g., OpenSees) to construct structural models and perform analyses. However, existing LLMs are limited in handling multi-step structural modeling due to frequent hallucinations and error accumulation during long-sequence operations. To this end, this study presents a novel multi-agent architecture to automate the structural modeling and analysis using OpenSeesPy. First, problem analysis and construction planning agents extract key parameters from user descriptions and formulate a stepwise modeling plan. Node and element agents then operate in parallel to assemble the frame geometry, followed by a load assignment agent. The resulting geometric and load information is translated into executable OpenSeesPy scripts by code translation agents. The proposed architecture is evaluated on a benchmark of 20 frame problems over ten repeated trials, achieving 100% accuracy in 18 cases and 90% in the remaining two. The architecture also significantly improves computational efficiency and demonstrates scalability to larger structural systems.