arXiv:2603.28823v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Scaling laws relate model quality to compute budget (FLOPs), but practitioners face wall-clock time constraints, not compute budgets. We study optimal model sizing under fixed time budgets from 5 minutes to 24 hours on consumer GPUs (RTX 4090). Across 70+ runs spanning 50M--1031M parameters, we find: (1)~at each time budget a U-shaped curve emerges where too-small models overfit and too-large models undertrain; (2)~optimal model size follows $N^* \propto t^{0.60}$, growing \emph{faster} than Chinchilla's $N^* \propto C^{0.50}$, with $\alpha = 0.60 \pm 0.07$ robustly exceeding compute-optimal across all sensitivity analyses; (3)~a \emph{dual U-shape mechanism}: short-budget U-curves arise from compute bottlenecks, while long-budget U-curves emerge from data bottlenecks (overfitting), with an intermediate regime where the U-curve temporarily disappears. These findings have immediate implications for researchers training on consumer hardware, where wall-clock time -- not FLOPs -- is the binding constraint. We release all code, logs, and 70+ experimental configurations.

arXiv:2511.22302v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Numerical simulations have revolutionized the industrial design process by reducing prototyping costs, design iterations, and enabling product engineers to explore the design space more efficiently. However, the growing scale of simulations demands substantial expert knowledge, computational resources, and time. A key challenge is identifying input parameters that yield optimal results, as iterative simulations are costly and can have a large environmental impact. This paper presents an AI-assisted workflow that reduces expert involvement in parameter optimization through the use of Bayesian optimization. Furthermore, we present an active learning variant of the approach, assisting the expert if desired. A deep learning model provides an initial parameter estimate, from which the optimization cycle iteratively refines the design until a termination condition (e.g.,energy budget or iteration limit) is met. We demonstrate our approach, based on a sheet metal forming process, and show how it enables us to accelerate the exploration of the design space while reducing the need for expert involvement.