arXiv:2605.23909v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We investigate the calibration of large language models' (LLMs') confidence across diverse tasks. The results of our preregistered study show that the current crop of LLMs are, like people, too sure they are right: confidence exceeds accuracy, on average. Importantly, however, this tendency is moderated by a powerful hard-easy effect, wherein overconfidence is greatest on difficult tests; by contrast, easy tests actually show substantial underconfidence. We develop LifeEval, a test for evaluating model calibration across levels of difficulty.

arXiv:2605.23926v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reasoning-capable large language models solve hard problems by emitting long chains of thought, paying heavily in latency, GPU time, and energy. Casual inspection of their traces reveals extensive reformulation, verification, and circular self-reflection, yet how much of this deliberation is actually necessary has never been measured at scale or explained from first principles. This paper closes both gaps. We formalise reasoning redundancy directly in terms of the reasoning model itself: the redundancy of a correct trace is the largest fraction of its trailing segmented steps that can be truncated while $\pi$, forced to terminate thinking and emit a final answer, still produces the correct answer. A large-scale quantification across four frontier reasoning models and two mathematical benchmarks shows that step-level redundancy is consistently high -- between 61% and 93% across the 8 (model, benchmark) conditions we study, with the median critical prefix equal to a single segmented step in six of the eight conditions -- that the finding is robust to the choice of judge family, and that although $\rho$ decreases with problem difficulty on MATH-500, all four models remain substantially redundant ($\rho \in [46\%, 85\%]$) even on the hardest Level-5 problems. We then prove that this redundancy is a structural consequence of length-agnostic outcome rewards, not a model-specific artefact: under any such reward, no finite expected stopping time is optimal. The result holds regardless of RL algorithm, base model, data distribution, or whether the policy is obtained via RL or distillation; over-thinking is therefore not a bug to be patched in individual models but a structural property of how current reasoning models are trained. Code: https://github.com/zhiyuanZhai20/how-much-thinking-is-enough

arXiv:2605.23930v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We introduce \emph{Quantum Frog}, a two-player cooperative game built on a novel \emph{quantized-time} mechanic in which the environment advances only when a player acts. Inspired by the classic arcade game Frogger, Quantum Frog requires two frogs to cross an 8$\times$8 grid of traffic and reach the far side together. We use reinforcement learning (RL) as an analytical lens to answer four design questions: (1) how does game difficulty scale with traffic density, (2) what is the optimal single-agent policy and why, (3) how large is the cooperation gap between independent and cooperative two-agent play, and (4) what joint strategy emerges when agents are incentivised to cooperate? We train agents through five escalating stages, Tabular Q-Learning, Deep Q-Network (\DQN), Independent \DQN~(\IDQN), and Multi-Agent Proximal Policy Optimisation (\MAPPO\ with a centralised critic), evaluating each against traffic densities of one to six cars. Our key findings are: (i) the quantized-time mechanic makes a \emph{rush strategy} (moving directly upward at every step) universally optimal, as time exposure to traffic is minimised; (ii) adding an uncoordinated second player is harder than sextupling the traffic for a single expert player; (iii) cooperative training recovers +32--34 percentage points of joint success rate relative to independent agents and reduces episode length from $\sim$90 to $\sim$6 steps; and (iv) the emergent cooperative strategy is synchronised rushing, not complex positional coordination, illustrating that shared incentives alone suffice to align agents in time-critical cooperative tasks. These findings provide concrete, empirically grounded guidance for the commercial design of Quantum Frog and offer broader insights into the role of environment mechanics in shaping multi-agent learning dynamics.

arXiv:2605.23932v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Despite strong medical benchmark accuracy, LLMs can exhibit severe multi-turn sycophancy in clinical dialogue, abandoning initial correct diagnosis under escalating pressure. We propose \textbf{\textsc{Med-Stress}}, a targeted stress test framework that evaluates belief stability under escalating pressure. Across nine frontier large language models (LLMs), we find a clear dissociation between medical knowledge and robustness: high initial diagnostic capability does not imply high belief stability, yielding large knowledge-robustness gaps for several LLMs. To mitigate this failure mode, we propose a lightweight inference-time defense, \textbf{\texttt{RBED}} (\textbf{R}ole-\textbf{B}ased \textbf{E}pistemic \textbf{D}efense), and \textbf{\texttt{R-FT}} (\textbf{R}esilience-oriented \textbf{F}ine-\textbf{T}uning), a training-time approach that internalizes evidence-based resistance to pressure. Experiments show that \textbf{\texttt{R-FT}} nearly eliminates belief change and substantially improves robustness.

arXiv:2605.23936v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This book presents a comprehensive and systematic survey of graph theory under uncertainty, with particular emphasis on the unifying role of the uncertain graph framework. It reviews fundamental concepts, structural properties, graph classes, and graph parameters within fuzzy, neutrosophic, and related models, while also introducing a wide range of extensions such as uncertain digraphs, hypergraphs, superhypergraphs, and dynamic graphs. In addition to theoretical developments, the book explores practical applications, including uncertain molecular graphs, decision-making systems, graph neural networks, knowledge graphs, and cognitive maps. By organizing diverse uncertainty-aware graph models within a common perspective, this work provides a coherent framework for understanding their relationships, capabilities, and applications in complex systems.

arXiv:2605.23937v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Knowledge base (KB) embeddings aim at combining the capability of classical knowledge graph embeddings to generalize the information present in facts, the ABox, with conceptual knowledge represented in an ontology language, the TBox. Several authors have recently explored the idea of mapping concepts to convex regions in a vector space. This is useful to represent hierarchies, typically present in TBoxes, since more general concepts can be mapped to larger regions, containing those regions associated with more specific concepts. However, the power of convexity is rarely leveraged during the actual learning tasks. Here, we introduce BoxLitE, a KB embedding model for DL-Lite$^{\mathcal{H}}$ that allows for convex optimization. We show that for any satisfiable DL-Lite$^{\mathcal{H}}$ KB, there is a BoxLitE embedding that is a weakly faithful model. As a proof of concept, we show how to formulate the KB embedding task as a convex optimization problem and how to obtain embeddings with such desirable faithfulness properties.

arXiv:2605.23938v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) increasingly fuse heterogeneous inputs in ubiquitous systems. Yet, how LLMs implicitly allocate authority when sensor measurements and user claims conflict remains unexamined, raising critical reliability concerns for deployments where physical sensing must retain priority. Unlike explicit traditional fusion, LLMs bury authority allocation within learned representations. We discover this allocation is severely format-dependent: numerical sensor data fails to integrate into answer-relevant model directions, allowing natural-language claims to dominate the final decision, a phenomenon we term \textbf{Authority Inversion}.To diagnose and mitigate this, we develop a geometric framework of context integration, introduce two computable audit metrics, specifically the Context Integration Ratio (CIR) and Authority Alignment Index (AAI), and propose Geometric Authority Calibration (GAC), an inference-time layer-level intervention to suppress misplaced user authority. Evaluating four models (4B to 35B parameters, three architectures) across four datasets totaling 576 conflict instances reveals extreme inversion: on numerical tasks, models exhibit near-zero sensor trust (AAI = -0.805, Cohen's d = -2.14), unaffected by model capacity. Validating our geometric framework, theory-guided causal injection flips 80.2\% of incorrect decisions (vs.

arXiv:2605.23939v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Web agents require both high-level reasoning (for task decomposition) and low-level interactions (for page elements manipulation) to conduct different tasks. However, these knowledge types differ fundamentally: reasoning knowledge (e.g., booking a flight requires first searching for routes) is abstract and transferable across websites, while interaction knowledge (e.g., clicking the Search button at a specific coordinate on Site A) depends heavily on page-specific contexts. Existing methods store experiences uniformly. This creates a dilemma: abstract representations lose executability on concrete pages, while concrete representations fail to generalize across domains. This entanglement limits capability accumulation: on new websites, agents either fail to recognize reusable task logic due to surface-level differences or attempt infeasible actions from outdated page structures. To disentangle them, we propose DRIVE, a dual-level skill modeling framework separating historical experience into natural language reasoning skills, which capture transferable task logic, and programmatic interaction skills, grounding abstract actions to executable operations. A scene-aware coordination mechanism adaptively retrieves and invokes these dual-level skills based on task semantics. DRIVE also uses skill-level reflection to identify hierarchy-specific failure modes, enabling targeted skill library expansion and refinement. Experiments across five WebArena domains show DRIVE attains an average task success rate of 52.8%, exceeding the skill-free baseline by 7.3 percentage points. Further ablations show reasoning and interaction skills provide distinct, complementary benefits, supporting separation of transferable task logic from executable page-level operations.

arXiv:2605.23955v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deploying machine learning in regulated financial environments -- credit risk, fraud detection, and anti-money laundering -- exposes critical vulnerabilities in algorithmic reproducibility. While early financial ML addressed statistical challenges such as backtest overfitting, deep neural networks and Generative AI have introduced mechanical nondeterminism rooted in hardware and architecture. This survey provides a systems perspective on reproducibility failures across three modalities now dominant in financial AI: tabular models (post-hoc explanation variance), graph networks (stochastic sampling and temporal asynchrony), and LLM-based agentic workflows (batch-dependent divergence and trajectory drift). We supplement the literature analysis with first-party experiments on public financial datasets -- quantifying explanation rank instability in credit scoring, prediction flip rates in GNN-based fraud detection, and tensor-parallel-induced output divergence in LLM entity extraction. We propose a layered evaluation framework linking modality-specific metrics (RBO, D_cos, TDI, PSD) to audit readiness, and empirically validate the complementarity of logit-level and semantic-level determinism measures.

arXiv:2605.23956v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Compound AI systems that chain multiple LLM calls into directed computation graphs are now the dominant architecture for production AI. Although these architectures leverage heterogeneous nodes with mixed-mode outputs, no existing framework quantifies how perturbations propagate through such pipelines, where nodes are stochastic and execution paths can diverge structurally. We introduce QUIVER, a formal framework for measuring perturbation propagation in graph-structured LLM pipelines. The framework defines: (1) a sensitivity matrix with type-dispatched distance metrics that classifies edges as amplifiers, absorbers, or threshold-sensitive, complemented by occurrence-lift; (2) trajectory divergence decomposing variation into value drift, structural path divergence, and iteration count divergence; (3) bifurcation thresholds identifying the smallest perturbation that causes structural execution path changes; and (4) distribution faithfulness, quantifying when per node evaluation datasets diverge from production distributions. We validate on two production enterprise pipelines and a public DSPy multihop QA pipeline, three structurally distinct architectures. Across 8,200+ instrumented traces (32,000+ pair comparisons), we demonstrate that QUIVER reveals distinct sensitivity profiles across architectures, distinguishes mechanistically different cascade patterns producing identical divergence rates, predicts nodes prone to trajectory bifurcation from observational data alone, and localizes stale evaluation artifacts to specific node-field categories that aggregate metrics cannot surface.

arXiv:2605.23957v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Learning-assisted hyper-heuristics can select among dispatching rules while preserving the feasibility and interpretability of constructive Job Shop Scheduling Problem (JSSP) heuristics. Their main computational cost lies in label generation rather than model fitting, since each supervised label usually requires rolling out candidate rules from a partial schedule. We study this label-cost problem together with a reliability problem: a learned selector should not switch away from a strong default rule unless the predicted gain is credible. The proposed selector uses regret-normalized rollout labels, a contextual KNN uncertainty estimate, and a gate that acts only when the predicted improvement exceeds an uncertainty-adjusted margin. We also vary rollout depth and breadth to measure the cost-quality trade-off. On synthetic JSSP instances, the gated selector achieves the lowest mean RPD among learned selectors, remains close to the best fixed dispatching rule, and reduces Random-HH mean RPD by more than an order of magnitude.

arXiv:2605.23965v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve strong performance on logical reasoning benchmarks, yet their reliability remains uncertain. Existing evaluations rely on static benchmarks, which fail to assess robustness under logically equivalent transformations and often overestimate reasoning capability. We propose LGMT (Logic-Grounded Metamorphic Testing), an oracle-free framework that leverages first-order logic (FOL) to evaluate LLM reasoning. By deriving metamorphic relations from formal logical equivalences, LGMT constructs semantically invariant test cases and detects reasoning defects through cross-case consistency checking. Experiments on six state-of-the-art LLMs show that LGMT exposes substantial hidden defects missed by traditional reference-based evaluations. We further find that models are particularly sensitive to symbol-level and conclusion-level variations, and that advanced prompting such as Few-shot CoT only partially mitigates these issues. These results suggest that LLM evaluation should move beyond isolated correctness toward robustness under logical invariance. LGMT provides a principled and scalable approach for diagnosing reasoning failures.

arXiv:2605.24004v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are promising for autonomous driving, but semantics-only decision policies can yield physically unsafe behavior in dynamic traffic. Existing methods either perform online language reasoning without explicit dynamics verification or use world models mainly in offline pipelines, leaving a gap between semantic intent and physical feasibility at decision time. We propose Reason--Imagine--Act (RIA), a closed-loop framework that couples an LLM reasoner with an action-conditioned world model for online safety verification. At each step, the LLM proposes an action template and candidate sub-actions, the world model performs short-horizon rollouts, and a safety scorer selects the safest executable action with feedback to the next reasoning step. Under a unified CARLA point-goal protocol (1000 episodes), RIA achieves 80.05% route completion, 51.10% arrival rate, and 0.20% collision rate. Under the same closed-loop interface, RIA consistently outperforms training-free baselines, including CARLA TM and MADA, on core closed-loop metrics. For reproducibility, code is available at https://github.com/pku-smart-city/source_code/tree/main/RIA.

arXiv:2605.24053v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) are predominantly governed by probabilistic frameworks in which the sum of outcome probabilities is constrained to unity. This architectural limitation, often imposed by Softmax layers, leads to a collapse of uncertainty that makes it difficult to differentiate between epistemic uncertainty, paradox, and vagueness. We present an empirical investigation of the application of Neutrosophic Logic, a framework that treats Truth (T), Indeterminacy (I), and Falsity (F) as three independent dimensions, to model epistemic states in LLMs. We conducted experiments on a family of four OpenAI GPT models across five linguistic phenomena: logical paradoxes, epistemic ignorance, vagueness, ethical contradictions, and future contingencies, under three prompting strategies: neutrosophic, probabilistic, and entropy-derived. Our findings reveal that the neutrosophic approach, by allowing T+I+F > 1, a state we term hyper-truth, provides a richer representation of a model's internal state. In 35% of evaluations, hyper-truth emerged spontaneously, predominantly under ethical contradiction and logical paradox. We demonstrate that this approach preserves truth values in fuzzy contexts and offers a robust method for identifying and quantifying internal model conflict. We conclude that the integration of neutrosophic evaluation layers is a critical step toward more transparent, reliable, and ethically aware AI systems.

arXiv:2605.24139v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Imperfect-information games (IIGs) are challenging, as players must make decisions without fully observing the true game state. While AlphaZero has achieved remarkable success in perfect-information games, extending it to IIGs remains difficult. Existing search-based approaches, such as Perfect Information Monte Carlo (PIMC), suffer from strategy fusion, while Information Set Monte Carlo Tree Search (IS-MCTS) incurs high computational cost when combined with neural networks. In this paper, we propose Multi-State Aggregated PoLicy Evaluation (MAPLE), a tree search method that aggregates policy and value evaluations from multiple sampled world states within a single search tree, combining the advantages of PIMC and IS-MCTS while maintaining a controllable computational cost. We further incorporate a Siamese-based sampling strategy to select informative world states from the information set. Experiments on Phantom Go and Dark Hex show that MAPLE significantly outperforms the PIMC-based AlphaZero baseline, achieving Elo improvements of 291 and 136, respectively. These results demonstrate that MAPLE is an effective approach for AlphaZero-style learning in imperfect-information games.

arXiv:2605.24168v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Sparsity has long been a central theme in LLM efficiency, but its role in context processing remains unresolved. As LLM workloads shift toward longer contexts and agentic interactions, the compute and memory bottlenecks of attention become increasingly critical, raising the question of whether these constraints are fundamental. Our position is that these constraints are artificial and unnecessary, and that the future of LLM inference lies in extreme but principled sparsity along the context dimension. This position is supported by several strands of empirical and theoretical evidence. First, we find the insistence on dense attention unreasonable, since in a long context a query effectively projects O(N) attention information into a hidden space of dimension d

arXiv:2605.24202v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multi-agent LLM workflows route inference through specialized roles to lift end-task accuracy, but jointly training those roles with reinforcement learning is unstable in ways that are poorly understood. We study when end-to-end RL training of multi-agent LLM workflows improves over their base models, comparing Shared-Policy training, where all roles update one policy, with Isolated-Policy training, where each role has its own parameters. Our experimental matrix spans Eval-Opt, Voting, and Orch-Workers workflows, math and code tasks, and three model scales (0.6B, 1.7B, 4B). We find that multi-agent RL usually improves over base models, but gains depend jointly on workflow, task, and scale, not on policy sharing alone. Isolated-Policy tends to reach higher peak accuracy yet more often falls off a terminal accuracy cliff, while Shared-Policy training does not eliminate failure; it redistributes failure into qualitatively different patterns. We then explain the strongest of these patterns through role-level gradient dynamics induced by workflow topology and policy routing: under Isolated-Policy, parallel same-role agents on shared prompts amplify per-role gradients and drive terminal degradation in Voting and Orch-Workers workflows; under Shared-Policy, asymmetric per-step gradient mass causes the shared policy to be captured by the dominant role, producing different failure signatures by task and workflow. Together, the empirical map and its underlying mechanisms show that policy sharing routes training pressure through different channels rather than offering uniform stability, making it a design choice with workflow- and task-conditional tradeoffs.

arXiv:2605.24411v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Existing language model applications struggle to meet the demand for emotionally oriented support, primarily due to their inability to maintain deep, persistent context across sessions. This report introduces Psych LM, an iOS application that validates the thesis that, for such applications, the surrounding architecture is paramount. Psych LM runs a local, on-device language model within a purpose-built, local-first runtime designed for behavioral and life-coaching applications. The system achieves the practical effect of a near-infinite context window through an automated, user-inspectable memory corpus that converts conversations into structured memory cards, including facts, goals, and events, and dynamically injects them into the prompt via semantic and vector search. As such, the system can be defined as an active-learning, retrieval-augmented generative, on-device architecture. This architecture delivers four primary contributions: a local-first design where privacy is a core property; a detailed description of the memory corpus for persistent context of key user information; a deterministic orchestration layer that provides a stable behavioral spine independent of the model's internal state; and a benchmark framework focused on evaluating the integrated system's reliability under realistic operating conditions. The R and D process confirms that complex, context-aware interaction can be reliably achieved under the strict constraints of a mobile environment by prioritizing architectural control and resource management over simple model size.

arXiv:2605.24484v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Generalist neural routing solvers have shown great potential in solving diverse vehicle routing problems (VRPs) with a unified model. However, existing solvers are typically limited to symmetric settings or degrade in performance when switching to asymmetric settings due to input inconsistencies or inherent structural differences, substantially limiting their practicality in real-world scenarios that encompass both scenarios. To address this limitation, we define the spatial position of each node based on the relative distances to a specific set of pivots and further propose a Spatial Pivot-Aligned Coordinate-free Embedding (SPACE) framework that unifies node representation and solution generation across symmetric and asymmetric VRPs. Specifically, we construct a bidirectional Frechet representation using a novel furthest pivot sampling strategy to enable invariant node representations across distinct problem settings. Furthermore, we introduce a weight-decomposed adaptive decoding mechanism that decouples geometric perception from problem representations, mitigating the overfitting of constraint decisions to a specific geometry setting. Extensive experiments on 110 VRP variants, comprising 55 symmetric problems and their asymmetric counterparts, demonstrate that SPACE achieves promising zero-shot generalization in both symmetric and asymmetric VRPs.

arXiv:2605.24490v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multi-agent LLM decision systems for portfolio management still lack a principled way to assign credit across specialist agents, remain vulnerable to cold-start dominance under regime shifts, and offer limited transparency into how final allocations are formed. We propose Market Regime Council (MRC), a cooperative multi-agent decision system that computes exact Shapley credits across all single, pairwise, and Grand-coalition outputs for online agent weighting. Instantiated with N=3 specialist agents, at each trading period, MRC recomputes coalition-based Shapley weights from exponentially weighted performance histories, uses a Bayesian adaptive mixture to stabilize early periods, applies regime-dependent multipliers to adjust agent authority, and records each rebalance through a five-layer causal trace. Over 1,037 trading days across 13 crypto assets and five seeds, MRC achieves a Sharpe ratio of 1.51 and a cumulative return of 440.1%, ranking first on CR, SR, and IR among active baselines and attaining the lowest MDD among active methods. Ablation results show that the gains come from Shapley-weighted integration across coalition outputs rather than from any single stage in isolation. Code and demo data are included in the supplementary material.