arXiv:2605.12906v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Data selection during supervised fine-tuning (SFT) can critically change the behavior of large language models (LLMs). Although existing work has studied the effect of selecting data based on heuristics such as perplexity, difficulty, or length, the reported findings are often inconsistent or context-dependent. In this work, we systematically study the role of data difficulty in fine-tuning from both empirical and theoretical perspectives, and find that there is no universally optimal difficulty level; rather, its effectiveness depends on the dataset size. We show that for a fixed data budget, there exists an optimal data difficulty for SFT, and that this optimal difficulty shifts toward harder data as the data budget increases. To explain this phenomenon, we conduct controlled synthetic experiments that reveal a simple underlying mechanism: the interplay between the (in-distribution) generalization gap and the extrapolation gap. We further support this mechanism through a theoretical analysis using PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds. Overall, our results clarify how data size and difficulty jointly affect the trade-off between generalization and extrapolation in SFT, providing guidance for difficulty-based data selection under certain model and data conditions.

arXiv:2605.22365v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is highly vulnerable to backdoor attacks, yet effective defenses remain underexplored due to challenges arising from data entanglement and shifts in task formulation. To fill this gap, we conduct a systematic evaluation of thirteen representative backdoor defenses across the TSF life cycle and analyze their failure modes. Our results reveal two fundamental issues: (1) data entanglement induces channel-level signal dilution, rendering sample-filtering and trigger-synthesis defenses ineffective at localizing backdoors; and (2) task-formulation shift leads to training-loss degeneration, causing poisoned and clean windows to become indistinguishable at training stages. Based on these findings, we propose a training-time backdoor defense for TSF, termed TimeGuard. Our method adopts channel-wise pool training as the core paradigm and initializes a high-confidence pool using time-aware criteria to mitigate signal dilution. Moreover, we introduce distance-regularized loss selection to progressively expand the reliable pool during training and ease loss degeneration. Extensive experiments across multiple datasets, forecasting architectures, and TSF backdoor attacks demonstrate that TimeGuard substantially improves robustness, boosting $\mathrm{MAE}_\mathrm{P}$ by $1.96\times$ over the leading baseline, while preserving clean performance within 5% $\mathrm{MAE}_\mathrm{C}$.