arXiv:2609.12815v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We present BEAST, the first-ever Bayesian Swin Transformer for atmospheric forecasting on 0.25$^\circ$ global resolution able to accurately quantify both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. To overcome the associated computational bottlenecks, we devise an orthogonal 4D-parallelization scheme that introduces a unique domain-tensor-parallelism strategy and a novel uncertainty parallel method, enabling us to fully leverage GPU capacity and efficiently scale model training. For a 2.4-billion-parameter model, we achieve a peak performance of 3.96 EFLOP/s on 20,480 NVIDIA GH200 GPUs on the JUPITER supercomputer. We train BEAST as a 700-million-parameter model with 96 random weight samples on 384 nodes on 40 years of data for nearly one million gradient updates. This model achieves predictive skill scores competitive with state-of-the-art probabilistic atmospheric AI models and numerical models, and can predict extreme events with exceptional skill, while generating large ensembles 3 to 4 times faster than the current-best AI model. Our contribution unlocks the potential of high-fidelity uncertainty quantification in atmospheric AI models, heralding a new era for AI-based models in climate and Earth system sciences.

arXiv:2511.15015v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) has become a practical architecture for scaling LLM capacity while keeping per-token compute modest, but deploying MoE models on a single, memory-limited GPU remains difficult because expert weights dominate the HBM footprint. Existing expert offloading and prefetching systems reduce the resident set, yet they often pay expert-loading costs on the critical path when activation becomes dense. Post-training quantization (PTQ) lowers the footprint without transfers, but prevailing pipelines fix expert bit-widths offline and assume routing remains stable, even though MoE expert utilization is heavy-tailed and the hot set can shift across workloads. We present DynaExq, a runtime-aware mixed-precision serving system that treats single-GPU MoE inference under a hard HBM envelope as an online, budget-constrained precision allocation problem. The key insight is to keep the experts that dominate runtime traffic resident at higher precision, while maintaining a low-precision fallback for the remaining experts, so the system can reduce transfer volume and avoid the waiting latency that limits offloading and prefetching under dense activation. DynaExq estimates long-horizon expert hotness from router traces, selects a per-layer high-precision resident set via a budget-feasible top-$n$ rule, and applies promotions and demotions asynchronously through stable expert handles so the forward pass always executes on a fully materialized expert version. Across Qwen3-MoE-30B/80B and six benchmarks, DynaExq improves accuracy over static PTQ on Qwen3-80B (73.09% to 77.57%) under comparable device-memory budgets and achieves up to 2.73x higher throughput than offloading/prefetch baselines at batch size 32.

arXiv:2606.20474v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Context-heavy agents place substantial pressure on the key-value (KV) cache: long prefixes are reused across many short turns, while concurrency determines whether the serving system can keep GPUs utilized. We study 4-bit KV-cache compression for this setting, using TurboQuant-style rotation and codebook quantization as a quality anchor and vLLM FP8 KV caching as the deployment anchor. We report three contributions. First, we frame 4-bit KV caching around multi-round agent workloads where task quality, cache residency, and serving throughput must be measured jointly. Second, we describe the practical design choices needed to make the 4-bit path robust, including asymmetric K/V treatment, Walsh-Hadamard rotation, QJL removal, and block-scale variants. Third, we present serving optimizations on AMD GPUs, including optimized decode-attention kernels and UltraQuant, an FP4 approximation path that uses FP8 queries, FP4 KV tensors, UE8M0 group scales, and native scaled-MFMA support on CDNA4. On an adaptive-SLO replay of production Claude Code traces, UltraQuant sustains 2.71x (MiniMax-M2.5) and 4.38x (Qwen3-235B) the qualified-request throughput of the BF16 baseline, matching or exceeding hardware FP8 KV while using half the KV bytes. UltraQuant delivers its largest gains in long-context, high-concurrency, memory-constrained serving regimes.