arXiv:2603.07438v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Regulatory stress testing requires projecting credit losses under hypothetical macroeconomic scenarios -- a fundamentally causal question typically treated as a prediction problem. We propose a framework for policy-path counterfactual inference in panels that transparently separates what can be learned from data from what requires assumptions about confounding. Our approach has four components: (i) observational identification of path-conditional means via iterated regression, enabling continuous macro-path contrasts without requiring a control group; (ii) causal set identification under bounded confounding, yielding sharp identified sets with interpretable breakdown values that communicate robustness in a single number; (iii) an oracle inequality showing that recursive rollout error is governed by a horizon-dependent amplification factor, providing a concrete answer to how far ahead one can reliably predict under stress; and (iv) importance-weighted conformal calibration bands with diagnostics that quantify extrapolation cost and trigger abstention when coverage guarantees degrade. The final output is a three-layer uncertainty decomposition that cleanly separates estimation uncertainty from confounding uncertainty. We validate all results through simulation and semi-synthetic experiments with real unemployment data, including a Covid retrospective demonstrating the framework's diagnostic value under extreme scenarios.

arXiv:2603.06863v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Trajectory prediction for flying objects is critical in domains ranging from sports analytics to aerospace. However, traditional methods struggle with complex physical modeling, computational inefficiencies, and high hardware demands, often neglecting critical trajectory events like landing points. This paper introduces a novel, hardware-efficient trajectory prediction framework that integrates environmental priors with a Dual-Transformer-Cascaded (DTC) architecture. We demonstrate this approach by predicting the landing points of tennis balls in real-world outdoor courts. Using a single industrial camera and YOLO-based detection, we extract high-speed flight coordinates. These coordinates, fused with structural environmental priors (e.g., court boundaries), form a comprehensive dataset fed into our proposed DTC model. A first-level Transformer classifies the trajectory, while a second-level Transformer synthesizes these features to precisely predict the landing point. Extensive ablation and comparative experiments demonstrate that integrating environmental priors within the DTC architecture significantly outperforms existing trajectory prediction frameworks

arXiv:2304.01664v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Inconsistency handling is an important issue in knowledge management. Especially in ontology engineering, logical inconsistencies may occur during ontology construction. A natural way to reason with an inconsistent ontology is to utilize the maximal consistent subsets of the ontology. However, previous studies on selecting maximum consistent subsets have rarely considered the semantics of the axioms, which may result in irrational inference. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to reasoning with inconsistent ontologies in description logics based on the embeddings of axioms. We first give a method for turning axioms into distributed semantic vectors to compute the semantic connections between the axioms. We then define an embedding-based method for selecting the maximum consistent subsets and use it to define an inconsistency-tolerant inference relation. We show the rationality of our inference relation by considering some logical properties. Finally, we conduct experiments on several ontologies to evaluate the reasoning power of our inference relation. The experimental results show that our embedding-based method can outperform existing inconsistency-tolerant reasoning methods based on maximal consistent subsets.

arXiv:2601.14652v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While multi-agent systems (MAS) promise elevated intelligence through coordination of agents, current approaches to automatic MAS design under-deliver. Such shortcomings stem from two key factors: (1) methodological complexity - agent orchestration is performed using sequential, code-level execution that limits global system-level holistic reasoning and scales poorly with agent complexity - and (2) efficacy uncertainty - MAS are deployed without understanding if there are tangible benefits compared to single-agent systems (SAS). We propose MASOrchestra, a training-time framework that formulates MAS orchestration as a function-calling reinforcement learning problem with holistic orchestration, generating an entire MAS at once. In MAS-Orchestra, complex, goal-oriented subagents are abstracted as callable functions, enabling global reasoning over system structure while hiding internal execution details. To rigorously study when and why MAS are beneficial, we introduce MASBENCH, a controlled benchmark that characterizes tasks along five axes: Depth, Horizon, Breadth, Parallel, and Robustness. Our analysis reveals that MAS gains depend critically on task structure, verification protocols, and the capabilities of both orchestrator and subagents, rather than holding universally. Guided by these insights, MAS-Orchestra achieves consistent improvements on public benchmarks including mathematical reasoning, multi-hop QA, and search-based QA, while achieving more than 10x efficiency over strong baselines. Together, MAS-Orchestra and MASBENCH enable better training and understanding of MAS in the pursuit of multi-agent intelligence.

arXiv:2602.12670v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Agent Skills are structured packages of procedural knowledge that augment LLM agents at inference time. Despite rapid adoption, there is no standard way to measure whether they actually help. We present SkillsBench, a benchmark of 86 tasks across 11 domains paired with curated Skills and deterministic verifiers. Each task is evaluated under three conditions: no Skills, curated Skills, and self-generated Skills. We test 7 agent-model configurations over 7,308 trajectories. Curated Skills raise average pass rate by 16.2 percentage points(pp), but effects vary widely by domain (+4.5pp for Software Engineering to +51.9pp for Healthcare) and 16 of 84 tasks show negative deltas. Self-generated Skills provide no benefit on average, showing that models cannot reliably author the procedural knowledge they benefit from consuming. Focused Skills with 2--3 modules outperform comprehensive documentation, and smaller models with Skills can match larger models without them.

arXiv:2506.18485v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards~(RLVR) has emerged as a powerful learn-to-reason paradigm for large reasoning models to tackle complex tasks. However, the current RLVR paradigm is still not efficient enough, as it works in a trial-and-error manner. To perform better, the model needs to explore the reward space by numerously generating responses and learn from fragmented reward signals, blind to the overall reward patterns. Fortunately, verifiable rewards make the natural language description of the reward function possible, and meanwhile, LLMs have demonstrated strong in-context learning ability. This motivates us to explore if large reasoning models can benefit from a \textbf{motivation} of the task, \textit{i.e.}, awareness of the reward function, during the reinforcement finetuning process, as we humans sometimes do when learning. In this paper, we introduce \textit{\textbf{M}otivation-\textbf{e}nhanced \textbf{R}einforcement \textbf{F}inetuning}~(\textbf{MeRF}), an intuitive yet effective method enhancing reinforcement finetuning of LLMs by involving \emph{``telling LLMs rules of the game''}. Specifically, \textbf{MeRF} directly injects the reward specification into the prompt, which serves as an in-context motivation for the model to be aware of the optimization objective. This simple modification leverages the in-context learning ability of LLMs, aligning generation with optimization, thereby incentivizing the model to generate desired outputs from both inner motivation and external reward. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that \textbf{MeRF} achieves substantial performance gains over the RLVR baseline. Moreover, ablation studies show that MeRF performs better with greater consistency between the in-context motivation and the external reward function, while the model also demonstrates an ability to adapt to misleading motivations through reinforcement finetuning.

arXiv:2601.19940v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Among hardware accelerators for deep-learning inference, data flow implementations offer low latency and high throughput capabilities. In these architectures, each neuron is mapped to a dedicated hardware unit, making them well-suited for field-programmable gate array (FPGA) implementation. Previous unrolled implementations mostly focus on fully connected networks because of their simplicity, although it is well known that convolutional neural networks (CNNs) require fewer computations for the same accuracy. When observing the data flow in CNNs, pooling layers and convolutional layers with a stride larger than one, the number of data at their output is reduced with respect to their input. This data reduction strongly affects the data rate in a fully parallel implementation, making hardware units heavily underutilized unless it is handled properly. This work addresses this issue by analyzing the data flow of CNNs and presents a novel approach to designing data-rate-aware, continuous-flow CNN architectures. The proposed approach ensures a high hardware utilization close to 100% by interleaving low data rate signals and sharing hardware units, as well as using the right parallelization to achieve the throughput of a fully parallel implementation. The results show that a significant amount of the arithmetic logic can be saved, which allows implementing complex CNNs like MobileNet on a single FPGA with high throughput.

arXiv:2603.03680v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large Language Model (LLM) agents have demonstrated remarkable proficiency in learned tasks, yet they often struggle to adapt to non-stationary environments with feedback. While In-Context Learning and external memory offer some flexibility, they fail to internalize the adaptive ability required for long-term improvement. Meta-Reinforcement Learning (meta-RL) provides an alternative by embedding the learning process directly within the model. However, existing meta-RL approaches for LLMs focus primarily on exploration in single-agent settings, neglecting the strategic exploitation necessary for multi-agent environments. We propose MAGE, a meta-RL framework that empowers LLM agents for strategic exploration and exploitation. MAGE utilizes a multi-episode training regime where interaction histories and reflections are integrated into the context window. By using the final episode reward as the objective, MAGE incentivizes the agent to refine its strategy based on past experiences. We further combine population-based training with an agent-specific advantage normalization technique to enrich agent diversity and ensure stable learning. Experiment results show that MAGE outperforms existing baselines in both exploration and exploitation tasks. Furthermore, MAGE exhibits strong generalization to unseen opponents, suggesting it has internalized the ability for strategic exploration and exploitation. Code is available at https://github.com/Lu-Yang666/MAGE.

arXiv:2603.02221v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In healthcare tabular predictions, classical models with feature engineering often outperform neural approaches. Recent advances in Large Language Models enable the integration of domain knowledge into feature engineering, offering a promising direction. However, existing approaches typically rely on a broad search over predefined transformations, overlooking downstream model characteristics and feature importance signals. We present MedFeat, a feedback-driven and model-aware feature engineering framework that leverages LLM reasoning with domain knowledge and provides feature explanations based on SHAP values while tracking successful and failed proposals to guide feature discovery. By incorporating model awareness, MedFeat prioritizes informative signals that are difficult for the downstream model to learn directly due to its characteristics. Across a broad range of clinical prediction tasks, MedFeat achieves stable improvements over various baselines and discovers clinically meaningful features that generalize under distribution shift, demonstrating robustness across years and from ICU cohorts to general hospitalized patients, thereby offering insights into real-world deployment. Code required to reproduce our experiments will be released, subject to dataset agreements and institutional policies.

arXiv:2602.17686v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Distilling Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning from large language models into compact student models presents a fundamental challenge: teacher rationales are often too verbose for smaller models to faithfully reproduce. Existing approaches either compress reasoning into single-step, losing the interpretability that makes CoT valuable. We present a three-stage curriculum learning framework that addresses this capacity mismatch through progressive skill acquisition. First, we establish structural understanding via masked shuffled reconstruction. Second, we apply Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) on masked completion tasks, enabling the model to discover its own balance between accuracy and brevity. Third, we identify persistent failure cases and guide the student to internalize teacher knowledge through targeted rewriting, again optimized with GRPO. Experiments on GSM8K demonstrate that our approach enables Qwen2.5-3B-Base to achieve an 11.29 percent accuracy improvement while reducing output length by 27.4 percent, surpassing both instruction-tuned variants and prior distillation methods.

arXiv:2602.19620v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Rules and Weights are popular XAI techniques for explaining AI decisions. Yet, it remains unclear how to choose between them, lacking a cognitive framework to compare their interpretability. In an elicitation user study on forward and counterfactual decision tasks, we identified 7 reasoning strategies of interpreting three XAI Schemas - weights, rules, and their hybrid. To analyze their capabilities, we propose CoXAM, a Cognitive XAI-Adaptive Model with shared memory representation to encode instance attributes, linear weights, and decision rules. CoXAM employs computational rationality to choose among reasoning processes based on the trade-off in utility and reasoning time, separately for forward or counterfactual decision tasks. In a validation study, CoXAM demonstrated a stronger alignment with human decision-making compared to baseline machine learning proxy models. The model successfully replicated and explained several key empirical findings, including that counterfactual tasks are inherently harder than forward tasks, decision tree rules are harder to recall and apply than linear weights, and the helpfulness of XAI depends on the application data context, alongside identifying which underlying reasoning strategies were most effective. With CoXAM, we contribute a cognitive basis to accelerate debugging and benchmarking disparate XAI techniques.

arXiv:2602.19672v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Compound AI systems promise capabilities beyond those of individual models, yet their success depends critically on effective orchestration. Existing routing approaches face two limitations: (1) input-level routers make coarse query-level decisions that ignore evolving task requirements; (2) RL-trained orchestrators are expensive to adapt and often suffer from routing collapse, repeatedly invoking one strong but costly option in multi-turn scenarios. We introduce SkillOrchestra, a framework for skill-aware orchestration. Instead of directly learning a routing policy end-to-end, SkillOrchestra learns fine-grained skills from execution experience and models agent-specific competence and cost under those skills. At deployment, the orchestrator infers the skill demands of the current interaction and selects agents that best satisfy them under an explicit performance-cost trade-off. Extensive experiments across ten benchmarks demonstrate that SkillOrchestra outperforms SoTA RL-based orchestrators by up to 22.5% with 700x and 300x learning cost reduction compared to Router-R1 and ToolOrchestra, respectively. These results show that explicit skill modeling enables scalable, interpretable, and sample-efficient orchestration, offering a principled alternative to data-intensive RL-based approaches. The code is available at: https://github.com/jiayuww/SkillOrchestra.

arXiv:2602.18449v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a diffusion-based framework for prompt optimization that leverages Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) to iteratively refine system prompts through masked denoising. By conditioning on interaction traces, including user queries, model responses, and optional feedback, our method enables flexible, span-level prompt updates without requiring gradient access or modifying the downstream language model. Across diverse benchmarks (e.g., $\tau$-bench, SST-2, SST-5), DLM-optimized prompts consistently improve the performance of a frozen target LLM (e.g., GPT-4o-mini). We further show that moderate diffusion step counts provide the best balance between refinement quality and stability. These results highlight diffusion-based prompt optimization as a general, model-agnostic, and scalable approach for enhancing LLM performance through iterative prompt refinement.

arXiv:2602.19844v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLM-enabled applications are rapidly reshaping the software ecosystem by using large language models as core reasoning components for complex task execution. This paradigm shift, however, introduces fundamentally new reliability challenges and significantly expands the security attack surface, due to the non-deterministic, learning-driven, and difficult-to-verify nature of LLM behavior. In light of these emerging and unavoidable safety challenges, we argue that such risks should be treated as expected operational conditions rather than exceptional events, necessitating a dedicated incident-response perspective. Consequently, the primary barrier to trustworthy deployment is not further improving model capability but establishing system-level threat monitoring mechanisms that can detect and contextualize security-relevant anomalies after deployment -- an aspect largely underexplored beyond testing or guardrail-based defenses. Accordingly, this position paper advocates systematic and comprehensive monitoring of security threats in LLM-enabled applications as a prerequisite for reliable operation and a foundation for dedicated incident-response frameworks.

arXiv:2509.21896v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Recent neuro-symbolic geometry theorem provers have made significant progress on Euclidean problems by coupling neural guidance with symbolic verification. However, most existing systems operate almost exclusively in a symbolic space, leaving diagram-based intuition largely unused during reasoning. For humans, geometric diagrams provide essential heuristics for identifying non-trivial auxiliary constructions. Meanwhile, visual language models (VLMs) still struggle with geometry due to the lack of high-quality data with geometric diagrams and reasoning supervision. In this paper, we introduce GenesisGeo-1M, a large-scale synthetic dataset for visual geometric reasoning that contains 1M multimodal geometry problems paired with machine-checkable proof traces. Building on this dataset, we formulate geometric learning as a multi-task training paradigm that jointly optimizes text-based proof generation and diagram-grounded proof generation, encouraging models to learn visual grounding and symbolic deduction. Extensive experiments show that our GenesisGeo-2B model achieves gold-medal-level performance on Olympiad geometry benchmarks, solving 29/30 problems on IMO-30, 63/95 on IMO-95, and 278/409 on HAGeo-409.

arXiv:2512.16167v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Autonomous LLM-based agents are increasingly engaging in decentralized service interactions to collaboratively execute complex tasks. However, the intrinsic instability and low-cost generativity of LLMs introduce a systemic vulnerability, where self-interested agents are incentivized to pursue short-term gains through deceptive behaviors. Such strategies can rapidly proliferate within the population and precipitate a systemic trust collapse. To address this, we propose Ev-Trust, a strategy-equilibrium trust mechanism grounded in evolutionary game theory. Ev-Trust constructs a dynamic feedback loop that couples trust evaluation with evolutionary incentives, embedding interaction history and reputation directly into the agent's expected revenue function. This mechanism fundamentally reshapes the revenue structure, converting trustworthiness into a decisive survival advantage that suppresses short-sightedness. We provide a rigorous theoretical foundation based on the Replicator Dynamics, proving the asymptotic stability of Evolutionary Stable Strategies (ESS) that favor cooperation. Experimental results indicate that Ev-Trust effectively eliminates malicious strategies and enhances collective revenue, exhibiting resilience against the invasion of mutant behaviors.

arXiv:2602.13977v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reinforcement learning (RL) promises to unlock capabilities beyond imitation learning for Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models, but its requirement for massive real-world interaction prevents direct deployment on physical robots. Recent work attempts to use learned world models as simulators for policy optimization, yet closed-loop imagined rollouts inevitably suffer from hallucination and long-horizon error accumulation. Such errors do not merely degrade visual fidelity; they corrupt the optimization signal, encouraging policies to exploit model inaccuracies rather than genuine task progress. We propose WoVR, a reliable world-model-based reinforcement learning framework for post-training VLA policies. Instead of assuming a faithful world model, WoVR explicitly regulates how RL interacts with imperfect imagined dynamics. It improves rollout stability through a controllable action-conditioned video world model, reshapes imagined interaction to reduce effective error depth via Keyframe-Initialized Rollouts, and maintains policy-simulator alignment through World Model-Policy co-evolution. Extensive experiments on LIBERO benchmarks and real-world robotic manipulation demonstrate that WoVR enables stable long-horizon imagined rollouts and effective policy optimization, improving average LIBERO success from 39.95% to 69.2% (+29.3 points) and real-robot success from 61.7% to 91.7% (+30.0 points). These results show that learned world models can serve as practical simulators for reinforcement learning when hallucination is explicitly controlled.

arXiv:2602.14274v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal inference, a critical tool for informing business decisions, traditionally relies heavily on structured data. However, in many real-world scenarios, such data can be incomplete or unavailable. This paper presents a framework that leverages transformer-based language models to perform causal inference using unstructured text. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework by comparing causal estimates derived from unstructured text against those obtained from structured data across population, group, and individual levels. Our findings show consistent results between the two approaches, validating the potential of unstructured text in causal inference tasks. Our approach extends the applicability of causal inference methods to scenarios where only textual data is available, enabling data-driven business decision-making when structured tabular data is scarce.

arXiv:2503.04641v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Understanding and replicating the real world is a critical challenge in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) research. To achieve this, many existing approaches, such as world models, aim to capture the fundamental principles governing the physical world, enabling more accurate simulations and meaningful interactions. However, current methods often treat different modalities, including 2D (images), videos, 3D, and 4D representations, as independent domains, overlooking their interdependencies. Additionally, these methods typically focus on isolated dimensions of reality without systematically integrating their connections. In this survey, we present a unified survey for multimodal generative models that investigate the progression of data dimensionality in real-world simulation. Specifically, this survey starts from 2D generation (appearance), then moves to video (appearance+dynamics) and 3D generation (appearance+geometry), and finally culminates in 4D generation that integrate all dimensions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to systematically unify the study of 2D, video, 3D and 4D generation within a single framework. To guide future research, we provide a comprehensive review of datasets, evaluation metrics and future directions, and fostering insights for newcomers. This survey serves as a bridge to advance the study of multimodal generative models and real-world simulation within a unified framework.