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Towards Selection as Power: Bounding Decision Authority in Autonomous Agents

arXiv:2602.14606v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Autonomous agentic systems are increasingly deployed in regulated, high-stakes domains where decisions may be irreversible and institutionally constrained. Existing safety approaches emphasize alignment, interpretability, or action-level filtering. We argue that these mechanisms are necessary but insufficient because they do not directly govern selection power: the authority to determine which options are generated, surfaced, and framed for decision. We propose a governance architecture that separates cognition, selection, and action into distinct domains and models autonomy as a vector of sovereignty. Cognitive autonomy remains unconstrained, while selection and action autonomy are bounded through mechanically enforced primitives operating outside the agent's optimization space. The architecture integrates external candidate generation (CEFL), a governed reducer, commit-reveal entropy isolation, rationale validation, and fail-loud circuit breakers. We evaluate the system across multiple regulated financial scenarios under adversarial stress targeting variance manipulation, threshold gaming, framing skew, ordering effects, and entropy probing. Metrics quantify selection concentration, narrative diversity, governance activation cost, and failure visibility. Results show that mechanical selection governance is implementable, auditable, and prevents deterministic outcome capture while preserving reasoning capacity. Although probabilistic concentration remains, the architecture measurably bounds selection authority relative to conventional scalar pipelines. This work reframes governance as bounded causal power rather than internal intent alignment, offering a foundation for deploying autonomous agents where silent failure is unacceptable.

AgenticSciML: Collaborative Multi-Agent Systems for Emergent Discovery in Scientific Machine Learning

arXiv:2511.07262v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Scientific Machine Learning (SciML) integrates data-driven inference with physical modeling to solve complex problems in science and engineering. However, the design of SciML architectures, loss formulations, and training strategies remains an expert-driven research process, requiring extensive experimentation and problem-specific insights. Here we introduce AgenticSciML, a collaborative multi-agent system in which over 10 specialized AI agents collaborate to propose, critique, and refine SciML solutions through structured reasoning and iterative evolution. The framework integrates structured debate, retrieval-augmented method memory, and ensemble-guided evolutionary search, enabling the agents to generate and assess new hypotheses about architectures and optimization procedures. Across physics-informed learning and operator learning tasks, the framework discovers solution methods that outperform single-agent and human-designed baselines by up to four orders of magnitude in error reduction. The agents produce novel strategies -- including adaptive mixture-of-expert architectures, decomposition-based PINNs, and physics-informed operator learning models -- that do not appear explicitly in the curated knowledge base. These results show that collaborative reasoning among AI agents can yield emergent methodological innovation, suggesting a path toward scalable, transparent, and autonomous discovery in scientific computing.

VCDF: A Validated Consensus-Driven Framework for Time Series Causal Discovery

By: Gene Yu Β· Ce Guo Β· Wayne Luk
17 February 2026 at 13:00
arXiv:2410.19412v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Time series causal discovery is essential for understanding dynamic systems, yet many existing methods remain sensitive to noise, non-stationarity, and sampling variability. We propose the Validated Consensus-Driven Framework (VCDF), a simple and method-agnostic layer that improves robustness by evaluating the stability of causal relations across blocked temporal subsets. VCDF requires no modification to base algorithms and can be applied to methods such as VAR-LiNGAM and PCMCI. Experiments on synthetic datasets show that VCDF improves VAR-LiNGAM by approximately 0.08-0.12 in both window and summary F1 scores across diverse data characteristics, with gains most pronounced for moderate-to-long sequences. The framework also benefits from longer sequences, yielding up to 0.18 absolute improvement on time series of length 1000 and above. Evaluations on simulated fMRI data and IT-monitoring scenarios further demonstrate enhanced stability and structural accuracy under realistic noise conditions. VCDF provides an effective reliability layer for time series causal discovery without altering underlying modeling assumptions.

Sparse Latent Factor Forecaster (SLFF) with Iterative Inference for Transparent Multi-Horizon Commodity Futures Prediction

arXiv:2505.06795v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Amortized variational inference in latent-variable forecasters creates a deployment gap: the test-time encoder approximates a training-time optimization-refined latent, but without access to future targets. This gap introduces unnecessary forecast error and interpretability challenges. In this work, we propose the Sparse Latent Factor Forecaster with Iterative Inference (SLFF), addressing this through (i) a sparse coding objective with L1 regularization for low-dimensional latents, (ii) unrolled proximal gradient descent (LISTA-style) for iterative refinement during training, and (iii) encoder alignment to ensure amortized outputs match optimization-refined solutions. Under a linearized decoder assumption, we derive a design-motivating bound on the amortization gap based on encoder-optimizer distance, with convergence rates under mild conditions; empirical checks confirm the bound is predictive for the deployed MLP decoder. To prevent mixed-frequency data leakage, we introduce an information-set-aware protocol using release calendars and vintage macroeconomic data. Interpretability is formalized via a three-stage protocol: stability (Procrustes alignment across seeds), driver validity (held-out regressions against observables), and behavioral consistency (counterfactuals and event studies). Using commodity futures (Copper, WTI, Gold; 2005--2025) as a testbed, SLFF demonstrates significant improvements over neural baselines at 1- and 5-day horizons, yielding sparse factors that are stable across seeds and correlated with observable economic fundamentals (interpretability remains correlational, not causal). Code, manifests, diagnostics, and artifacts are released.

Multi-Objective Neural Network-Assisted Design Optimization of Soft Fin-Ray Fingers for Enhanced Grasping Performance

arXiv:2506.00494v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The internal structure of the Fin-Ray fingers plays a significant role in their adaptability and grasping performance. However, modeling the grasp force and deformation behavior for design purposes is challenging. When the Fin-Ray finger becomes more rigid and capable of exerting higher forces, it becomes less delicate in handling objects. The contrast between these two gives rise to a multi-objective optimization problem. We employ the finite element method to estimate the deflections and contact forces of the Fin-Ray fingers grasping cylindrical objects, generating a dataset of 120 simulations. This dataset includes three input variables: the thickness of the front and support beams, the thickness of the crossbeams, and the equal spacing between the crossbeams, which are the design variables in the optimization. This dataset is then used to construct a multilayer perceptron (MLP) with four output neurons predicting the contact force and tip displacement in two directions. The magnitudes of maximum contact force and maximum tip displacement are two optimization objectives, showing the trade-off between force and delicate manipulation. The set of solutions is found using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). The results of the simulations demonstrate that the proposed methodology can be used to improve the design and grasping performance of soft grippers, aiding to choose a design not only for delicate grasping but also for high-force applications.

A Financial Brain Scan of the LLM

arXiv:2508.21285v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Emerging techniques in computer science make it possible to "brain scan" large language models (LLMs), identify the plain-English concepts that guide their reasoning, and steer them while holding other factors constant. We show that this approach can map LLM-generated economic forecasts to concepts such as sentiment, technical analysis, and timing, and compute their relative importance without reducing performance. We also show that models can be steered to be more or less risk-averse, optimistic, or pessimistic, which allows researchers to correct or simulate biases. The method is transparent, lightweight, and replicable for empirical research in the social sciences.

Fin-RATE: A Real-world Financial Analytics and Tracking Evaluation Benchmark for LLMs on SEC Filings

arXiv:2602.07294v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: With the increasing deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) in the finance domain, LLMs are increasingly expected to parse complex regulatory disclosures. However, existing benchmarks often focus on isolated details, failing to reflect the complexity of professional analysis that requires synthesizing information across multiple documents, reporting periods, and corporate entities. Furthermore, these benchmarks do not disentangle whether errors arise from retrieval failures, generation inaccuracies, domain-specific reasoning mistakes, or misinterpretation of the query or context, making it difficult to precisely diagnose performance bottlenecks. To bridge these gaps, we introduce Fin-RATE, a benchmark built on U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings and mirroring financial analyst workflows through three pathways: detail-oriented reasoning within individual disclosures, cross-entity comparison under shared topics, and longitudinal tracking of the same firm across reporting periods. We benchmark 17 leading LLMs, spanning open-source, closed-source, and finance-specialized models, under both ground-truth context and retrieval-augmented settings. Results show substantial performance degradation, with accuracy dropping by 18.60\% and 14.35\% as tasks shift from single-document reasoning to longitudinal and cross-entity analysis. This degradation is driven by increased comparison hallucinations, temporal and entity mismatches, and is further reflected in declines in reasoning quality and factual consistency--limitations that existing benchmarks have yet to formally categorize or quantify.
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